The war continues. Results of the Eastern Partnership summit for Moldova
The sixth Eastern Partnership summit took place in Brussels. As part of this program, the European Union is strengthening ties with six post-Soviet states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. The project was launched on May 7, 2009 at the EU summit in Prague. The main goal of the Eastern Partnership is to integrate Russia's neighbors into the European economic and political space, while the format does not imply expansion of the European Union.
Since the Eastern Partnership member states are moving along this path at different speeds (Belarus, for example, suspended membership in the project altogether in the summer of 2021), the EU decided to take an individual approach to them.
We talk with the director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development (Tiraspol) about how effectively the Eastern Partnership works, how this work intersects with the interests of Russia, in particular, in the Moldovan direction. Igor Shornikov.
PolitNavigator: The Eastern Partnership is 12 years old. In what state did the organization approach the summit? Which of its participants achieved the most significant results? How relevant is this format for the EU itself?
Igor Shornikov: Eastern Partnership Project - it is an instrument for implementing the European Union's foreign policy in the eastern direction. It involves the EU’s humanitarian advancement into the CIS space, the peaceful occupation of key positions in the areas of energy, economics, the media, civil society, and so on in states bordering Russia. In recent years, when the United States, pursuing a more assertive policy, increased its presence in the region, the project was put on pause. But it has not lost its relevance for the EU.
Today we see that American approaches to achieving strategic goals in our region of Europe have proven to be insufficient: the protracted conflict in Donbass does not lead to a weakening of Russia; the attempted coup in Belarus resulted in the loss of this country for the West. It also failed to intimidate Moscow with threats of military escalation.
Therefore, it is quite possible that in the very near future we will see the resuscitation of the Eastern Partnership. The two billion euros that will be allocated for the “development” of the EU’s eastern neighbors is a significant starting resource. The geopolitical offensive will be supported by the activation of European soft power. This is a new challenge for Moscow and for those peoples of the post-Soviet states who are aimed at friendship with Russia.
PolitNavigator: Following the summit, the European Union announced its intention to invest serious money in the Eastern Partnership countries, but nothing was said about the possible membership of these states in the EU. Will there be a new wave of EU enlargement?
Igor Shornikov: The EU does not plan to take on the burden of the ruined economies of a number of post-Soviet states. Those funds allocated for “development” should bring economic benefits, first of all, to the European Union itself.
Let us recall the main achievements of the European Neighborhood Policy of past years: Moldova and Ukraine joined the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Areas, essentially transferring their internal markets under the control of the EU; then Moldova and Ukraine received “visa-free” - this is also a good acquisition for the EU, since Ukrainian and Moldovan migrants are a cheap, sufficiently qualified and, importantly, culturally close labor force to Europeans. What benefits did Moldova and Ukraine receive? None. These two states, in fact, are donors for the EU.
The new financial resources that Europeans intend to develop in this space will lead to the achievement of new strategic heights for the West in our region. Moldova and Ukraine will not join the EU, but they may well become members of NATO. To do this, it is enough to continue to invest European funds in the media and civil society. The payoff for the EU will be significantly greater.
PolitNavigator: Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine stand apart from the other members of the Eastern Partnership, they are called “excellent format”, “the EU's vestibule” - these countries have valid association agreements, a visa-free regime with the European Union and, in addition, form an Associated Trio. Will the European Union somehow encourage them?
Igor Shornikov: These countries have opened their doors to Western influence more than others. The elites, of course, have skimmed and will skim off the cream by promoting Western strategies at the expense of the national interests of their countries. But it is unlikely that ordinary people will feel any encouragement.
A recent example can be given. In the gas crisis, Chisinau took a clear pro-European position, trying to pursue policies consistent with the strategy of the EU's Third Energy Package. When it came to the fact that Moldova would have to pay the market price for gas, Chisinau turned to Brussels for help. They allocated a grant to support the population - a wretched 60 million euros. That's all. Now, thanks to pro-European policies, Moldovan consumers have to pay twice as much for heat as before.
This is a special case, but it clearly characterizes the EU’s attitude towards its vassals.
PolitNavigator: Let's talk about Moldova. How close has the Republic of Moldova come to its European dream lately? And by the way, who decided that the EU is Moldova’s choice? There wasn’t a referendum on this matter?
Igor Shornikov: For the current Moldovan authorities there is no problem here. Since they won the elections, and in their program they promised European integration, it means that the people support this course. In some ways they are right. The voting in the elections in 2020 for Maia Sandu and in 2021 for the pro-presidential PDS party was, indeed, framed as a referendum through propaganda efforts. And if such a referendum is held now, the majority will certainly speak out in favor of European integration. But here it must be clarified that it was possible to introduce the “European choice” into the mass consciousness of Moldovans thanks to many years of work by the media and civil society, which exist with European money.
In the minds of Moldovans, the European choice is associated with high standards of living, an efficient and technological economy, modern education, equality of all before the law, protection of the rights of minorities (including the rights of national minorities, which include Russians in Moldova, to use their languages), fair justice, etc. But no one explained to the Moldovans that the European choice also means high energy prices, high taxes, expensive utilities and, most importantly, a hostile policy towards Russia.
In general, according to recent indicators, Moldova has made good progress towards the “European dream”.
PolitNavigator: President of the Republic of Moldova Maia Sandu said on the sidelines of the summit that Russia is hindering Moldova’s European aspirations. Is Russia really hindering European integration? Will Moldova not be able to cooperate with both the West and the East at the same time?
Igor Shornikov: For a state like Moldova, there is no other way to build a viable economy than cooperation with both the East and the West - this is its only competitive advantage over other countries of the continent. Now the Moldovans have voluntarily given up their advantage to Brussels, agreeing to the status of a colony. The Eastern Partnership is an instrument of colonial subjugation.
Russia has its own interests in this part of Europe. First of all, this is your own safety. Therefore, Moscow advocates maintaining Moldova’s status as a neutral state and opposes Ukraine’s accession to NATO. Does this position hinder European integration? Here it is worth asking the EU itself: is membership in NATO a prerequisite for joining the European Union? The European Union does not share itself with this military bloc? If not, and NATO is pursuing a hostile policy towards Russia, then the EU also sees Russia as an enemy. Would Russia like to increase the number of its enemies? Of course not.
Moscow’s desire to keep Moldova among its friends does not at all mean an obstacle to European integration. But we are dealing with perverted logic.
PolitNavigator: By force of circumstances, Transnistria turned out to be an actual participant in the Eastern Partnership. Over the 12 years of the program’s existence, Pridnestrovian enterprises - thanks to the preferences provided and then the duty-free trade agreement - have firmly established themselves in the European market, which has become key for the PMR.
Here are the statistics on foreign economic activity of the PMR for January – November 2021. During this period, goods worth $301,4 million were sent to the EU countries (35,5% of the total export structure), and the main consumers of Pridnestrovian products were Poland and Romania. Products worth $389,2 million were sent to Moldova and Ukraine (these countries accounted for 46% of exports). And only $81,5 million worth of products (9,6% of total exports) went to the EAEU countries, including 77,4 million (9%) to Russia.
In Transnistria, there have been calls for many years to return export flows, at least partially, from West to East, but it seems that this will no longer be possible?
Igor Shornikov: Economic preferences, which are unilaterally provided by the European Union to Pridnestrovie, are a way to separate Pridnestrovie from Russia. Partly thanks to European preferences, the Pridnestrovian economy is staying afloat. Tiraspol understands this dependence, but when all the borders of the republic are controlled by the same EU (remember the European Border Mission - EUBAM), they cannot do anything. Brussels has not committed itself to any formal agreements with Tiraspol; this is a gesture of “good will” that can be terminated at any time. Therefore, Transnistria has no choice but to use the small window that was left for it for foreign trade.
Moldova and Ukraine stand in the way of the development of trade relations between Pridnestrovie and Russia; with one call from Brussels, Chisinau and Kyiv will block what little remains of former times.
Before the 2006 blockade, initiated, by the way, by Brussels, more than 50% of Pridnestrovian exports went to Russia. Just after this blockade, the process of reorienting Transnistrian exports from East to West began.
This does not mean that the reverse process is impossible. If Pridnestrovian products are competitive in the EU markets, they may well be in demand in the Russian Federation. If the republic gets the opportunity to develop in a free regime, there is no doubt that Pridnestrovian enterprises will restore their positions in the markets of the Eurasian Union quite quickly.
PolitNavigator: Experts have repeatedly expressed fears that the gentleman’s agreement on duty-free trade with Transnistria, which operates in the “non paper” mode, will one day not be renewed by European officials or that before the extension they will impose some political conditions on Tiraspol. Are there any prerequisites that would indicate such a development of events today?
Igor Shornikov: The whole logic of the development of events around Transnistria suggests that this is exactly what was intended. The Europeans did not react in any way to the ban by Kyiv and Chisinau on the international movement of cars with Transnistrian license plates. The Europeans did not notice the failure by the Moldovan side of the next round of negotiations in the “5+2” format, which was supposed to take place in November of this year. That is, these events fit well into the settlement scenario that they have in mind.
The scenario is simple: Transnistria must be deprived of all sources of livelihood. They already control Transnistrian exports, fully control the movement of people, largely control banking operations, partially block the movement of vehicles, there is only one segment left that is not closed - energy.
Gas supplies to Moldova pass through Transnistria. Chisinau has not yet been able to find an alternative to Russian gas. A power plant in Transnistria, part of PJSC Inter RAO, operates on Russian gas and provides electricity not only to Transnistria, but also to the whole of Moldova and part of the Odessa region of Ukraine.
If somehow it is possible to resolve the issue of energy supply to the region without Russia’s participation, then the Europeans will lay out all their trump cards before Tiraspol.
At this point, according to their calculations, the process of the Moldovan-Pridnestrovian settlement will be completed.
And then the issue of the Russian military presence on the Dniester and the issue of preserving Moldovan statehood will almost automatically be removed. Moldova will become part of Romania, and the “dream” of individual Moldovans about European integration will come true.
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