The war has devastated Ukraine
Maxim Ravreba, TV journalist, Kiev
Why is a dead patient more likely to be alive than dead? Well, at first glance. The Ukrainian press does not dare pose the question: “What will a war mean” for a not-at-all-wealthy young fascist state? Because the Ukrainian press is a conscious ally of the junta, and not at all because there is no freedom of speech in Ukraine. According to the topics that are brought to the attention of the media through public organizations created and financed with American money, the journalist does not bring serious problems to the pages of his publication. However, a normal resident of Ukraine watches TV less and less; if he does, he doesn’t believe what he hears at all. The word Tymchuk has become a symbol of lies and manipulation. Passing off black as white.
The Internet in Ukraine does not yet have such strict limits. The Internet is still asking questions and looking for answers. So, the main enemy of the economy, created during the Ukrainian SSR and still functioning in a slightly modified form, is war. War costs money. War costs a lot of money. But social time costs much more during war. While neighboring countries and economic competitors move forward, move on, calmly plan and develop, a country at war stands still (at best), and at worst, slides into the abyss of stagnation. But Ukraine is not in danger of stagnation. After the loss of Crimea and Donbass, after the destruction of industrial facilities (which now do not pay salaries and taxes) by barbaric bombings, there are simply no indicators in the economy.
But somehow these pictures do not coincide with the real situation. The dollar exchange rate, which collapsed in the first weeks after the coup, froze at 12 hryvnia per dollar. Having almost doubled, prices also froze. What is this? The financial genius of Yatsenyuk and Kubiv (or who is now looking after the National Bank)? No! But for now, the answer to this question is the main intrigue of this article. We'll expose this trick a little later. In the meantime, I will note that never and under no circumstances, not in this life, the European Union could and would not sign an Association Agreement with a country in such a position. And I wouldn't lend it. This is not possible - it is unnatural. More on the association a little later. Let's just mark this important milestone.
First let's try to ask the question: how much does war cost? The Internet and news agencies (not the media, as I already wrote about) pose this question and try to answer it. So, here are some numbers that were announced not by economists, but by journalists. And journalists, as you understand, understand economics, a little less than nothing. But they (League Business Inform) at least gave numbers! The League has them like this: every day the war steals from the budget an amount from 5 to 45 million dollars. $7 billion lost irretrievably. The war-torn region accounts for 16% of the national GDP.
Is it possible to believe? Conditionally. This calculation is based on what was announced in the meeting room by the deputies who most recently represented the Maidan. Interested in, for example, hiding the damage caused to the economy by the Maidan and street fighting in Kyiv. A coup and a violent change of government. Direct theft from the budget and national reserves (we do not yet know how much was stolen, taking advantage of the February chaos). But there are no other figures in Ukraine now! If Maydaun, striker Kaplin says that 60% of Donbass enterprises have suspended work, should we believe it? No. Suspended work does not mean that they stopped making payments to the budget. Despite the war, even in Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, enterprises continue to operate. Let's put it this way: Kyiv does not know at all, has no information about what losses the economy is suffering. And that makes this fascist government incompetent and dangerous.
Why did the dollar freeze at 12 hryvnia? Why aren't prices rising? All this must be there! The answer is simple: the West, the USA and the EU, which ordered and carried out the coup in Ukraine, cannot allow the death of the economy. For the West, Ukraine is a lab rat. She is not very important, even though her life is worth nothing. But the experiment cannot give a negative result. This will be a powerful blow to the prestige of the West. By the prestige of the USA and the EU as key global economic institutions. After such a blow, questions and challenges are inevitable from the rising new pillars of the world economy, key producers: China, India, Iran, the “Asian Tigers”. Therefore, the EU, under pressure from the United States, secretly funds Ukraine. I don’t see any other explanation for the stable hryvnia or reliable debt obligations. The West has never financed anyone for no reason. It is already clear what the fascist government will pay with. Gas transportation system, international ports, shale gas. Finally, Ukraine will become a cemetery for spent nuclear fuel.
That is why the EU agreed to conclude an Association with a bankrupt country, which has long been Ukraine. Never and under no circumstances would a state with such a huge external debt, on which the gas supply of Europe depends, be taken even close to the association. The EU is for the rich. And Ukraine, with such territory, infrastructure and population (quantity and quality), cannot be accepted even as a political decision. Because Ukraine is not Estonia. The main reason is Ukrainians. They work little and poorly. And they buy even worse than they work. And this is the main thing for modern economies focused on consumption, consumption, consumption. You can be a terrorist, you can be a fascist. But you are obliged to buy new iPhones, smart TVs, Google glasses and other contents of the shelves. You can be an EBRD analyst dependent on employers and write that the forecast for a decline in GDP during the war is 7% (a couple of weeks before, without any confusion, he wrote the same figure at 1,5%). Can! But what then to do with yesterday’s news: “The Ukrainian automobile market has collapsed by 45%”? That's how. The car sales market was an important source of budget revenue. The cars sold very well. Mortgage and credit policy made the car widely available, and car prices were two, three, four times higher than in the EU and the USA.
From this point on, half of the sales volume no longer exists. This money is no longer there. This is a wake-up call! He warns that Ukrainians do not have cash. Today they refuse a car, tomorrow they will refuse household appliances, the day after tomorrow they will not be able to pay interest on loans. And in a month they will not (as after the collapse of the USSR) pay for utilities. The collapse of payments will lead to the collapse of the economy. The lack of money in a country where more and more people get a Kalashnikov assault rifle in their hands every day is dangerous because these people, like in 1917, can leave the front and go in search of money, with weapons in their hands.
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