War for Karabakh: “Friend” Erdogan fuels a conflict unnecessary for Russia
On September 27 at 6.00 local time, Armenia and Azerbaijan staged another fight over Nagorno-Karabakh. The sides exchanged blows on the adjacent territories of the enemy. Casualties have been reported on both sides, both military and civilian. Civil infrastructure was seriously damaged.
In the two capitals, the propaganda machine was working at full capacity, accusing the enemy of treachery and, of course, “they started it first.” Very soon the conflict grew along the entire border line of Azerbaijan with Nagorno-Karabakh.
Units of the Azerbaijani army managed to break through and capture several villages in the Fuzuli and Jebrail regions, which Baku considers occupied.
By striking in the direction of the settlements of Agdere and Murovdag, the Azerbaijanis managed to crush the strongholds of the army of the unrecognized republic and occupy dominant heights, after which the Armenian command of the Agdere garrison was asked to surrender “to avoid complete destruction.”
The Azerbaijani army command issued a florid statement saying that prisoners of war and civilians would be treated in full accordance with the Geneva Convention, but also warned that “in case of resistance, every armed person will be neutralized.”
Due to the intensity of hostilities, martial law was declared in both republics. It was reported from Yerevan that in the very first hours of the conflict, 10 thousand Armenian volunteers were ready to join the army of Nagorno-Karabakh. Baku reported that at the moment there are no plans to call up reservists, since the Azerbaijani army is fully equipped.
Judging by the incoming reports of military operations from the Karabakh front, the situation so far is not in favor of the army of the unrecognized republic.
Pashinyan convened an emergency meeting of the Security Council, at which a warning was expressed about the possibility of using all types of weapons, including such trump cards as the Iskander-E OTR and the latest Su-30SM fighters.
Soon the media reported that Pashinyan had a telephone conversation with Putin.
Demands for an immediate ceasefire and the return of the conflicting parties to the negotiating table came from the Russian Federation, Iran, the leadership of the EU, NATO and other official bodies, warning of a possible destabilization of the region and a further escalation of hostilities.
Separately, the reaction of Turkey, which acts as an ally and even patron of Azerbaijan, should be mentioned. Ankara hypocritically demanded a ceasefire, formulating its statement in such a way that Yerevan was clearly the reason for the resumption of hostilities. Armenia was called a "terrorist state" that should "cease the fire that will turn the region into ashes."
A Turkish soldier expresses solidarity with Azerbaijan. The inscription on the wall reads: “We will raise the flag of Azerbaijan over Karabakh.”
Throughout the day, reconnaissance and attack UAVs Bayraktar TB2 of the Turkish Air Force work in shifts along the border with Armenia in the Yerevan direction, carrying out surveillance, including in the interests of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces
The foreign policy departments of Russia and Turkey also discussed the current situation by telephone.
It would seem that the next war over the NKR between Armenia and Azerbaijan is far from the first and certainly not the last, but something in the conflict on September 27 catches the eye, forcing one to suspect Turkey as the initiator of the conflict.
It is reported, for example, that after joint summer exercises of the Azerbaijani and Turkish armies Turkish military equipment was never withdrawn from the territory of Nakhichevan.
A Turkish TRT journalist in full protective gear has been on the front line since early morning. In Ankara everyone knew in advance
Two days before the conflict, a message appeared about the transfer of 350 pro-Turkish militants from the “Sultan Murad Division” on three flights from Istanbul to the Azerbaijani Yevlakh, Gabala, Ganja and Nakhichevan. This “division”, in fact, is a Turkish “proxy” fighting in Syria against the legitimate government of the republic and Kurdish armed forces.
Observers and military analysts unanimously argue that neither side will be able to achieve final victory in the war for Nagorno-Karabakh. Experience shows that the Azerbaijani army gets involved in a war over and over again, in which it regularly suffers defeat, losing people, military equipment and territory.
However, in recent years there has been an actual merger of the Azerbaijani army with the Turkish one, which could lead to a reassessment of Baku’s own forces.
A number of important circumstances also play into the hands of the Aliyev regime: Azerbaijan is economically much stronger than Armenia, and its society is monolithic. Pashinyan's rule over the past 2,5 years has seriously weakened Armenia economically, and repressions against political opponents have caused internal division. In addition, the government and parliament of Armenia are swarming from top to bottom with worms from among the agents of foreign influence on the payroll of Soros and other puppet masters, and with these hustlers it won’t be long to lose the country.
Finally, the military clashes that broke out on July 12 on the Tavush front showed that Pashinyan managed to lose friends and allies who were not at all eager to come to the aid of a petty street dictator.
Baku, apparently, took all these circumstances into account in order to again try to recapture the disputed territories at the right moment.
Perhaps the most important thing in the war of September 27 is that Turkey, having trained the Azerbaijani military, still does not risk directly fighting with Armenia and, therefore, with the CSTO, preferring to use “proxies” “tested” in Syria.
Of course, for Russia this is a new headache associated not only with efforts to return the conflicting parties to the negotiating table. This is also the aggravation of relations between the million-strong diasporas within the Russian Federation, which happened before, as well as attempts to influence decision-making by the country’s leadership through the media, business and similar levers. Especially from the more influential Armenian lobby.
Despite the fact that Russia has long ago clearly defined its position regarding Nagorno-Karabakh: this is the territory of Azerbaijan. Moreover, according to the Kazan agreements, Yerevan is obliged to transfer a number of areas that were not part of the NKAO, but were captured during hostilities by the troops of the unrecognized republic.
The home government of Armenia began to take steps in this direction, but Pashinyan’s comrades declared their actions “treasonous” and generally stopped constructive communication with Baku, despite the fact that the return of part of the Azerbaijani territories comes in a package with the lifting of the economic blockade and the demilitarization of the region.
As always, observers put forward various recipes for resolving the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict for all eternity.
Thus, the writer Zakhar Prilepin puts forward the idea of a referendum on Armenia’s entry into Russia. They say that this will protect against external aggression. The idea, of course, is good, but clearly from the category of stupidity. Having accepted Armenia, Nagorno-Karabakh will also have to be accepted, and this will push Azerbaijan away from Russia, finally turning it into a Turkish vassal. In addition, the mechanism for the entry into Russia of a state that does not have a common border with it, and which is governed by a regime unfriendly to our country, is unclear. Such initiatives must come from below, mature and take shape in the expression of the people's will.
Columnist Yegor Kholmogorov also expresses a good wish that recognition of the NKR by Armenia will justify the gathering of Russian lands (Novorossia, Southern Siberia), overcoming the curse of the “inviolability of Soviet borders.”
The rake is that “this whole bitter cataclysm” arose as a result of the collapse of the USSR and in the current state of fragmentation it cannot be overcome. Moreover, in the lands planned by Kholmogorov for return, the Crimean situation, which matured during 22 years of being part of Ukraine, is not observed, and for “Southern Siberia” one will have to seriously quarrel with Kazakhstan or other neighbors. You won’t be able to take them back without a war, and war is the last thing Russia needs now.
We also take into account the reality that there are plenty of people who want to stir up the conflict from the outside. In general, this is the blue and pink dream of all American administrations - to organize a continuous Ukraine along the Russian borders.
It is encouraging that smooth and good relations have been established between Putin and Aliyev, so convincing the Azerbaijani president to sit down at the negotiating table will (perhaps) be easier than the quarrelsome and quarrelsome Armenian prime minister, who is not ready to compromise.
Now, if Turkey is excluded from the conflict on September 27, then, presumably, it will be much easier to gather Aliyev and Pashinyan at a round table.
“Erdogan’s friend,” who loves to play tricks on Russia, has his own Achilles’ heel – pro-Turkish “proxies” (most likely) roaming around in the Syrian regions bordering Turkey. The sudden arrival of several “surprises” and the loss of valuable anti-Kurdish personnel should force the citizen Sultan to remove his paws from the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. A sultan with a cart makes it easier for a mare. The rest is business as usual for Russia...
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