Age is taking its toll: Lukashenko is preparing a transition of power “without shocks”

Lukashenko did what many of his colleagues in the post-Soviet space had long done, and what he shied away from during almost thirty years of his rule. He created a party in power.

Until now, the Belarusian president has not attached much importance to party life, and this party life has been dull and static. There were several loud but small opposition parties, several pro-government ones, which sometimes even received several parliamentary mandates in the elections, but did not have a serious influence on the political life of Belarus. New parties were not registered; the old ones de jure continued to exist even when only their name remained. Now everything will change.

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Back in February, Belarusian Minister of Justice Sergei Khomenko said that after the re-registration planned for this year There will be 3-4 parties left in the republic. In principle, there will be no opposition left - the new law directly obliges parties to maintain the inviolability of the constitutional order. Small batches will also become a thing of the past. So the future political landscape is already visible. There will remain large and loyal ones, acting within the limits of what is permitted.

A little to the left of the center are the communists, a little to the right are the liberal democrats, who are the same liberals and democrats as the Russian LDPR. Directly in the center is the White Rus' party, created on Saturday, which will be the main Belarusian party.

_{Which game will be the fourth and whether there will be one has apparently not yet been decided. But it is unlikely to be an openly pro-Russian party - Lukashenko prefers to control the eastern vector of his policy personally, and he does not need competitors, even loyal ones. Rather, we can expect the emergence of “good nationalists” who will advocate for language and “national revival”, but at the same time sing the praises of Father. The odious deputy Igor Marzalyuk could become an ideal figure at the head of such a party, but so far there has been no activity in this direction.}

“Belaya Rus” is a party, although new, but its history dates back to 2004, when the first public association with this name was registered in Grodno. Soon such “Belaya Rus” appeared in all regions, and in November 2007 they all united into a republican organization. Around the same time, there was first talk that Belaya Rus would be turned into a ruling party. Several times these conversations began to be implemented, but the process was always stopped from the very top. Finally, 15 years later, the green light was given to reorganize into a party.

While not formally a party, “Belaya Rus” was in fact one in many respects. She made political statements, nominated and promoted candidates for parliament at all levels, and collaborated with political parties around the world, including United Russia. It was “United Russia” that became the first external party to establish relations with “Belaya Rus” in a new status. Secretary of the United Russia General Council Andrei Turchak spoke at the founding congress and read out Medvedev’s greeting, in which he expressed the hope that “Belaya Rus” would become one of the key partners of his party and invited it to take part in the work of an international inter-party group uniting representatives of authoritative political organizations all continents.

_{Reformatting the political system and creating a party in power is part of Lukashenko’s strategy to ensure a soft transition of power. Until recently, he ruled Belarus single-handedly and did not need additional support in the form of parties. However, age takes its toll and over the past two years, Lukashenko has done a lot to ensure that the inevitable sooner or later change of power can take place without major upheavals.}

It is interesting that the Belarusian president himself distanced himself from the Saturday congress of his supporters. He was neither on stage nor among the performers. He preferred hockey to participating in the congress. On March 18, his team beat the team from the Gomel region on the ice of the capital’s Olympic Arena, as reported by the official website of the Belarusian leader. In other site news for Saturday - congratulations to Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and the personnel of the internal troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Not a word about the founding congress of the main pro-presidential party.

It is unlikely that the new party will become a powerful center of power from the very beginning. This is not the CPSU or even United Russia. Rather, it is a foundation for the future. Having received a new status, Belaya Rus will not automatically gain influence greater than that which it had as a republican public association. This can be judged by the personality of the head of the new party. Senator Oleg Romanov is far from a heavyweight in Belarusian politics. He became the head of Belaya Rus in July last year. From March 2021 to July 2022, he was the rector of the university in Polotsk, before that he was the vice-rector of the university in Grodno.

Undoubtedly, another political heavyweight benefited from the creation of a new party - Chairman of the upper house of the Belarusian parliament Natalya Kochanova, who currently ranks first on the list of potential successors to Lukashenko.

At the party congress, she sat on the presidium next to its elected chairman and gave a speech that was replicated by the entire Belarusian officialdom. A relatively young scientist not spoiled by high power, a deputy of the chamber she heads and, moreover, with a trace of Polotsk in her biography (Kochanova herself is also from those parts) in the role of leader of the main pro-presidential party will definitely strengthen her position.