Saakashvili's return did not work: Georgian opposition changes slogans

The political crisis in Georgia, the protracted confrontation between two main political forces - the Georgian Dream (government party) and the United National Movement (the party de facto led by Mikheil Saakashvili) - is entering a new phase.

The main theme is the impoverishment of the people, the intolerable social situation of the lower classes, the inability and unwillingness of the authorities to change their flawed economic policies. Issues of a social nature are coming to the forefront of Georgia's political agenda.

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On the other hand, no current political force enjoys sufficient trust, and therefore no new program proposed by the old parties can provide them with guaranteed success.

Indirect evidence of this attitude is the mass apathy of the population towards the elections. The 2018 presidential campaign was ignored by 53,26% of the electorate, the 2020 parliamentary elections by 43,99%, and the recent local government elections by 48,08% of voters. That is, approximately half of the population does not come to the polling stations, despite the unprecedented mobilization of “their” supporters by the main political forces.

Meanwhile, the day before, the UNM announced a major internal party reorganization and renewal. The main opposition force in Georgia plans to carry out serious structural and personnel changes, and also create a youth “wing”. The reorganization of the party will be carried out simultaneously with a change in the tactics of political struggle. The main emphasis will be on the social agenda.

What is more interesting for us is not the internal party changes, but namely transition from protecting the rights of the arrested Saakashvili and attempts to free him as the main tactical line, to organizing protests throughout the country on social issues. This was proclaimed following the results of the last meeting of the political council, the party’s governing body. We believe that this transition means recognition of other realities and is a reaction to deeper processes occurring in Georgian society.

_{The announced change in the tactics of the struggle for power is also due to the fact that the effect of the arrival of the “leader” of the UNM gradually weakened. Once in prison, Saakashvili’s presence in Georgia was unable to ensure the victory of the UNM in the recent local government elections. The party realized that its actions were not sufficiently justified, therefore, ordinary supporters were not sufficiently motivated. In a word, there is not enough salt, and the call to release the leader from prison so that he can save Georgia again, as in 2003, does not work.}

There are rumors that a conflict is brewing between Mikheil Saakashvili, who is in prison, and the current official leader of the UNM, Nika Melia. The latter recently criticized the previous leadership of the political force for poor coordination and lack of coordination

We must pay tribute to the UNM: of all the significant political parties in Georgia, it gave the most objective assessment of the latest events in Kazakhstan, calling it the main factor in the crisis social component. Now the party recognizes that the social component is deep and for the crisis in Georgian society.

Thus, the UNM expects to rely on resolving social contradictions and strengthen its influence.

_{The opposition chose a good moment against the backdrop of another “New Year’s” price increase for basic food products, gas, transport, and other services.  At the same time, the left political flank in ultra-liberal Georgia has been cleared, communist ideology is prohibited by law, and effective ideological competitors of the UNM are unlikely to appear in the near future.}

The International School of Economics (ISET) recorded an increase in the price of almost all food products in December 2021 compared to December of the previous year. Prices increased the most for: eggs (by 38%), cheese (by 12%), potatoes (by 35%), carrots (38%), cucumbers (by 15,9%), apples (by 18%), milk (by 13%). Due to the rise in gas prices, bread and bakery products will also inevitably become more expensive.

Recently, labor collectives of several private and public organizations announced strikes. The most significant is the so-called strike announced for January 17. social agents. The main demand of the strikers is an increase in wages and a collective agreement, which will guarantee some protection from the arbitrariness of the employer.

Striking miners of the city of Tkbuli

The worsening social crisis is indirectly recognized by the country's first person. Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili announced unfairly high prices for medicines and promised to open the internal medicine market to Turkey, where medicines are much cheaper than in Georgia. The country's president, Salome Zurabishvili, went further, openly declaring generally a very difficult social and economic situation, which is confirmed by data from various analytical centers.

But it is the official government that is responsible for the noticeable impoverishment of the population during the pandemic and the sharp increase in the polarization of society.

Irakli Garibashvili

For example, according to the American National Democratic Institute (NDI), 41% of respondents believe that the most important issue for Georgia today is unemployment, another 39% of respondents mentioned poverty, and 29% mentioned inflation.

_{But we must not forget that it was the UNM, which is trying today to “saddle” the leftist agenda, that was the author of the “pink revolution” of 2003, when forced neoliberal reforms were launched, taken to the extreme - with complete lack of rights for workers and maximum full rights for employers, with total privatization, rapid new oligarchy and mass pauperization.}

Now, the acute desire to come to power is forcing the UNM, this right-wing liberal force, to extremely update the social agenda. AND, Considering the serious media and financial resources of the Georgian pro-Western opposition, we can say with confidence that it will succeed.

However, as we noted above, approximately half of voters do not trust any political force. Therefore, there is a possibility that the UNM, without even realizing it, is bringing new realities of Georgian politics closer.

_{It is very possible that in the end it will clear the way not for itself, but for radical opponents of the oligarchic system in general.}

And let the devil begin to do the right thing, and then - as God willing!