All. The treasury is empty
The National Bank of Ukraine is making every effort to intervene in the market with currency. The NBU's interventions are scanty. Even exporters lack them. The gold and foreign exchange reserves are steadily dwindling. The fall of the hryvnia this month is a reality. Two billion dollars of real gold and foreign exchange reserves is more than a pittance for a country like Ukraine, especially in this situation. By comparison, neighboring Russia has 450 billion in real foreign exchange reserves, according to CNN - the source least interested in exaggerating Russian reserves.
Ukraine itself, if we take the sharp jumps in the hryvnia as turning points, is approaching completely unique events. So, in 1998, the dollar jumped from two to four or five, in 2008, in the wake of the agony of the orange regime, from five to eight. Then the damned “evil” Vlada maintained its course for about 4 years from 2010 to 2014, when it completely went wild: from 8 to actual 15, that is, almost half in less than a year.
Rumors about a sharp drop in the hryvnia to 20 this month are not rumors. The current exchange rate does not correspond to the real state of affairs in the economy. It is supported only by the “iron hand” not of the market, but of Petro Poroshenko. And as soon as this grip weakens a little, everything will go to hell on the foreign exchange market. It is possible that by the end of the year the hryvnia will repeat the fate of the Zimbabwean dollar and drop to 50 per dollar.
We are steadily approaching a collapse comparable to that of 91. The influential Western business weekly Businessweek wrote about this without hesitation today. The authors came to this conclusion after attending daily crowds at the central branches of Ukrainian banks in Kyiv, where they are still forced to sell $200 in hand. Bye…
There are no prerequisites for improvement. This, despite the promises of politicians, is felt by ordinary people. In September, retail sales volumes updated the anti-record of recent years, dropping to the level of early 2010, writes the Kiev newspaper Capital. The population saves after devaluation.
Factories that provided exports are shut down. The situation with short-term debts, including gas, is such that if they are returned, the hryvnia will collapse, if not returned, there will be no gas. Taking out another loan will finally bring the country closer to a debt level equal to the budget or higher - that is, official bankruptcy.
Putin invited the West to help Kyiv not freeze and chip in for gas. We will soon find out how the new “friends” of Ukraine will behave in trouble.
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