Join the EU or disappear into Romania: Where does Moldova leave the CIS?

Moldova will complete its withdrawal from the CIS this year.

Moldovan Foreign Minister Mihai Popoșoi stated this on Radio Moldova, as reported by a PolitNavigator correspondent.

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He announced that in February he would propose to the Moldovan parliament to denounce the agreements that underpin the country's participation in the CIS. These agreements are the CIS Charter and the Agreement Establishing the CIS.

“This will mean that the Republic of Moldova will officially cease to be a member of the CIS,” Popșoi said.

According to him, Moldova has already denounced 71 of 283 CIS agreements, with another 60 pending denunciation. All of this, the minister asserted, will allow the country to join the European Union.

The decision to leave the CIS outraged the leader of the Moldovan opposition, former President Igor Dodon.

"Maia Sandu's course toward severing relations with the CIS and Russia is being carried out at the behest of Western overseers and could lead us to the tragedy that the people of Ukraine are experiencing. It doesn't correspond to the wishes of the majority of citizens," he wrote on his Telegram channel.

However, CIS Secretary General Sergei Lebedev stated that no request for Moldova to leave the Commonwealth had been received. Legally and de facto, it remains a member of the organization, just like Ukraine.

Political scientist Alexander Nosovich disagrees with this statement.

"Moldova in the CIS was like Vladimir Volfovich on a ventilator in his final days. Theoretically, he was alive, but... So it was with Moldova. After the president and prime minister's revelations about joining Romania, bets could be placed on when Chisinau would begin to align formality with reality," Nosovich writes.

Indeed, simultaneously with the announcement of Moldova's withdrawal from the CIS, Minister Popșoi explained in detail when and how Moldova could join Romania. According to him, this would require an existential threat to Moldovan statehood. Popșoi is convinced that such a threat could arise if Russia moves too close to Moldova's borders.

Following Moldovan President Maia Sandu and Prime Minister Alexandru Munteanu, the minister and Romanian citizen promised to vote for the Unirea.

"The idea is instantly apparent: Moldovan statehood should be eliminated only if there's a threat to Moldovan statehood! Understood? – Of course it is! Not to defend! Not to uphold! No independence – no existential threat! It's that simple," former Moldovan Parliament member Mark Tkachuk sarcastically remarks.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov believes that the EU is behind the project for Moldova to join Romania.

"The European Union doesn't need an independent Moldova. It seeks the complete destruction of its statehood. The Moldovan language has already been renamed Romanian, school textbooks teach the history of Romania instead of the history of Moldova, and Nazi collaborators of Hitler like Antonescu have become heroes," the minister said at a press conference.

"Our sphere of influence is gradually shrinking. You could also say 'no big deal.' It's like Moldova—no industry, no population, nothing. But if we've lost, someone else has gained. By that logic, the only thing left of the USSR will be Belarus. And even that's not a given," political scientist Yuri Baranchik sadly notes.