All the hard stuff is ahead: Why Ukraine will face inevitable social riots in the fall
Zhitomir - Kyiv, April 30 (Navigator, Vasily Muravitsky) - Nationalists and revolutionary rebels from the Maidan demonstrated that they can break systems, but are not capable of building them. Zhytomyr journalist Vasily Muravitsky, chief editor of the Novaya Volna newspaper and political commentator, writes about this in his column for Navigator.
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...The logic of industry, economics, simply common sense logic said during the mass state European integration initiated by Yanukovych that it would lead to the death of the country and the economy. But the collective Yanukovych persisted.
70-80% of mechanical engineering exports are exports to Russia. Mechanical engineering is located in the South-East, the base region for the Party of Regions, which means that Russia’s inevitable closure of borders to Ukrainian industrial products will lead not only to the collapse of the economy, but also to the complete loss of the base electorate of the Party of Regions itself and its political death. A recession in industry will lead to social unrest and the loss of all stability. At the same time, European markets will not open, at least in the near future, due to civilizational differences and simply the political will of the EU leadership.
Wasn’t the discrepancy and disastrous nature of the European association for the country’s economy visible from the very beginning? Was! But where is the logic of decision-making in the then ruling Party of Regions? Why did the ruling structure commit deliberate suicide of both itself and the country?
The whole point is that the government officials have one logic, and the ruling oligarchic group has another, whose goal is to legalize all “savings” located, of course, in the West. This can only be done by entering the structures of the European political elite, at least as a “poor relative.” The “young oligarchs” wanted to enter Europe on a white horse and completely legalize their huge savings. This was the calculation, and Ukrainian statehood, the Ukrainian people, and the country’s industry were secondary in it. Secondary here, by the way, is the Maidan with all its poetry and romance. As they say, the first hundred Forbes are sincerely grateful to heaven.
And if we assume that in Ukraine, as, for example, once in Bolivia, there will be fifty coups d’etat over the course of fifty years, they will be led, secretly or openly, by the same people. And it is not surprising that it is they, thanks to their unparalleled talents to see opportunities where others see an insurmountable wall of rules and moral ideals, who will become the main oligarchs.
The masses, engulfed in the flames of unrest, do not so much see as they hear, and therefore yearn not so much for new faces, but for a new morality, which would be radically different from the principles and concepts of the past. And such a reversal can only be made by those who consider moral norms to be harmful social prejudices that prevent them from seeing new benefits and opportunities in the current situation; those for whom statehood, public service, duty and responsibilities to the people are secondary, insignificant, and unnoticeable. That is why the country’s ruling elite, concentrated both in the Party of Regions and in Batkivshchyna, is absolutely not a people’s people. That is why it was so easy to break it, destroying the only anchor of statehood in the oligarchic system - the power bloc.
Since today it has become absolutely clear that people with similar thinking, the thinking of an eternal revolutionary oligarch who has billions, if not today, then wants them in the near future, have come to power both in the government and in the regions, the popular protest will be directed precisely on them because living conditions will deteriorate too quickly, faster than IMF loans can slow the decline.
And in conditions when it is urgently necessary to extinguish the fire caused by a long and ongoing provocative policy of profiteering on cultural and linguistic differences, the people in whose hands the governing bodies find themselves behave as if they had long ago won the civil war, entered the European Union, arrested Yanukovych and all his supporters. Evidence of this is yesterday’s conference in London about the allegedly stolen billions of Yanukovych with the participation of Avakov.
While Avakov is looking for “Yanukovych’s gold” in Foggy Albion, Lugansk and Donetsk are completely leaving the power of Kyiv, and Poroshenko is negotiating for the restoration of the broken system of Yanukovych, with himself at the helm. The actions of the interim government of Yatsenyuk-Turchynov proved one thing: nationalists and rebel revolutionaries can break systems, but are not capable of building them. The only system of governing the country, the remnants of which are still in effect, remains the “Donetsk” system. “Lvovskie” did not build anything new.
And if all the oligarchs survived without losing anything significant, and Poroshenko revives the Yanukovych system, there will be new riots by the fall. In the East, if it is still part of the country, they will be anti-oligarchic and socialist, and in the Center and the West - within the ruling nationalists with the brightest anarchist overtones.
As they say: there is no need to be sad - all the HARD is ahead!
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