Elections in Belarus. Lukashenko's positions have seriously weakened
The election campaign in Belarus has just begun, but it has already become clear that it is not going at all as its organizer and main candidate expected. A particularly striking marker of this was the withdrawal of his candidacy by the leader of the Belarusian Liberal Democratic Party Oleg Gaidukevich.
Gaidukevich is a bright and charismatic politician who regularly appears on television talk shows, but is not at all oppositional. Something like the Belarusian Zhirinovsky. And he not only refused to further participate in the campaign, but did it in a format demonstratively loyal to Lukashenko and with undisguised alarmism.
“Political ambitions must give way to the situation in the country,” “the country cannot be allowed to break down,” these quotes from Gaidukevich’s statement indicate that everything is serious. And instead of conducting his own campaign, he was called upon to pull out Lukashenko and “wet” his competitors, who, in his own words, are all in favor of “breaking the country.”
In reality, everything is not quite like that. Not all candidates are radicals and revolutionaries out to destroy everything. And the behavior of the current head of state has recently become increasingly strange, and another 5 years of such strangeness can really break a lot.
The usual presidential elections in Belarus are Lukashenko, leading by a large margin (even if you don’t recognize the official voting results, he always had an overwhelming advantage over his competitors), Gaidukevich (there used to be another candidate with this name, the father of the current Gaidukevich, but that’s not the point has changed little) and a number of marginal pro-Western oppositionists. Optional - an unpopular spoiler candidate like Nikolai Ulakhovich, who in 2015, as a presidential candidate, personally called for voting for Lukashenko.
This year everything is different. Damaged relations with Russia, the economic crisis, largely provoked by the breakdown of integration negotiations and the epic around alternative oil - all this greatly reduced Lukashenko’s popularity. And the ambiguous position on the coronavirus and the completely ridiculous “recipes” for its treatment, such as vodka, baths or hockey, not only made the Belarusian president a worldwide laughing stock, but also completely finished off his rating and now not a trace remains of his overwhelming advantage.
Of course, there is no independent sociology in Belarus, and polls taking place on the Internet are politically biased. But not to the same extent! Now most of these polls agree that, subject to an honest vote count, Lukashenko does not get into the second round at all, and the clear leader is the former chairman of the board of Belgazprombank, Viktor Babariko. Another strong candidate is the founder of the High Technology Park, former diplomat and ally of Lukashenko Valery Tsepkalo.
Both candidates are moderate liberals. The first is rather a monetarist, and the second is a technocrat. Both advocate reforming the economy and reducing the role of the president in government to normal levels. In foreign policy, Tsepkalo has already made several statements in support of integration and the Russian language, calling Russians, Ukrainians and Belarusians one people. Babariko, in turn, diligently avoids direct answers. Mentally, he is closer to liberal Westerners, but, being a pragmatist, he realizes that there is no alternative to an alliance with Russia and will act on this basis.
Another candidate that has caused a stir is Svetlana Tikhanovskaya. But she is just the wife of Alexander Tikhanovsky, the host of the YouTube channel “Country for Life”, a rather shady blogger, behind whom it is unknown who is behind and from whom they are carefully molding the Belarusian Navalny.
The remaining candidates are not of particular interest. The traditional opposition is represented by three participants in the failed primaries of the center-right coalition, which in total can claim 1-2 percent, but will not receive this either because there are neither people nor money to collect signatures.
What about power? Lukashenko this year missed all major events where he could address his audience and earn political points. The traditional “Big Conversation” – a multi-hour press conference of the Belarusian president, which was supposed to take place in March – did not take place. The annual address to parliament, scheduled for April, has been postponed indefinitely. Nobody even remembers the All-Belarusian Assembly, the traditional pre-election forum of pro-Lukashenko activists. In general, he doesn’t look like a winner this year.
There remains hope for propaganda and administrative resources. But the propaganda has become somewhat clumsy and is constantly slipping into primitive rudeness, which alienates people even more. As for the administrative resource, who, if not Lukashenko, remembers how officials went over to his side in 1994, when the administrative resource was completely in the hands of Kebich.
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