Elections in Kazakhstan: Russophobes are strengthening their position
Residents of Kazakhstan who were in opposition to the government were actually deprived of the right to choose.
Co-chairman of the Socialist Movement of Kazakhstan Ainur Kurmanov writes about this in his column for PolitNavigator.
The current elections to the lower house of parliament in Kazakhstan did not bring any “surprises”. On the contrary, judging by the exit poll results, the same three parties, led by the ruling party “Nur Otan” (“Light of the Fatherland”), are entering the Mazhilis, which indicates the inviolability and steadfastness of the existing system. Akorda (the presidential administration) ultimately chose not to play “democracy” even with their own other parties.
So, judging by sociological polls and exit polls, three parties are entering the Mazhilis: “Nur Otan” (71,97-72,0%), “Ak Zhol” (10,18-10,2%), People’s Party of Kazakhstan (9,03. 9,54-4,93%). Two parties did not overcome the seven percent barrier: “Auyl” (5,75-3,07%), “Adal” (3,25-11%). The CEC will announce preliminary data only on the morning of January XNUMX, but they most likely will not differ much from this picture.
In total, according to official data, voter turnout in Kazakhstan was 63,3%, but the lowest percentage of participation was noted in the country’s two largest metropolises - in Almaty - 30,3% and in Nur-Sultan (Tselinograd) - 45,1%. This suggests that even at the state level it is recognized that residents of the old and new capital voted with their feet, not recognizing any of the five parties participating in the race.
We can say that there was no particular choice, since the last truly opposition party, the Communist Party of Kazakhstan, was liquidated by the courts five years ago, and the formal opposition, the National Social Democratic Party, refused to participate in the race, declaring a boycott. Part of the protest electorate also chose this tactic, and some began to play “smart voting”, campaigning for satellite parties in order to annoy Nazarbayev’s Nur Otan, which is simply impossible in the conditions of Kazakhstan.
However, you can’t trust official figures either, since local experts are well aware of how voting results are compiled and compiled in Kazakhstan. They are prepared in advance in Akorda, and then sent down in the form of orders to the regional akimats, which, through state employees and members of commissions, must provide the necessary numbers. Then the Central Election Commission announces previously prepared data for the republic.
Therefore, elections in Kazakhstan cannot be considered as some kind of indicator of public sentiment and trust or distrust of existing parties, much less the dominant one. The campaign was simply carried out according to plan with carefully selected participants in the person of five parties and according to a conservative scenario, without allowing new players into the Mazhilis for greater “pluralism” and without even changing the established order.
So, as in the past fifth and sixth convocations in the Mazhilis, after “Nur Otan” comes “Ak Zhol” (“Bright Path”), and the trinity is closed by the same pro-government People’s Party of Kazakhstan, which in November removed the word “communist” from its name " The only thing is that they were allowed to “bite off” a few percent of the main party, increasing their own results. This should show some strengthening of sparring partners against the backdrop of an intensifying socio-economic crisis.
Accordingly, the laurels of the main “opposition” party once again go to the right-wing liberal “Ak Zhol”, which now portrays a radical national-populist force advocating a ban on communist ideology, renaming the country and cities with Russian names, recognizing the “Holodomor”, and leaving countries from the EAEU, as well as for the introduction of a parliamentary republic.
The third party, although formally considered “leftist,” has so sharply slid to the right, abandoning not only its symbols and name, but also joining the anti-Russian campaign within the country. For example, the leader of the PPK Aikyn Konurov, in response to statements by Russian deputies, announced a fundraiser to install flagpoles in cities along the border with the Russian Federation, 90-100 meters high, so that Russian residents could see whose territory it is. As well as the construction of a spiritual and cultural center in the North Kazakhstan region bordering Russia.
On the Nur Otan list was another ardent Russophobe, a supporter of pro-Turkish orientation and the main ideologist of far-right Kazakh nationalism - Aidos Sarym.
Therefore, as we see, the composition of the Mazhilis has become more than jingoistic and will continue to actively pursue the policy of decommunization and de-Russification. Moreover, a bill on recognition of the “Holodomor”, put forward by the Ak Zhol party and copied from the Ukrainian analogue, is under consideration, which provides for criminal punishment for denying the Kazakh genocide, and declares the USSR an “evil empire.”
It is noteworthy that the Adal (Fair) party of Elbasy’s middle son-in-law Timur Kulibayev, who has now begun to actively show his political ambitions, was not allowed into the current composition, and on the contrary, his main opponent, Dariga Nazarbayeva, passed through the Nur Otan party quota. This adds intrigue, since she will likely take the post of Speaker or Deputy Speaker and will strengthen her position in the political arena.
This situation makes it clear to everyone that the main arbiter in the person of Nursultan Nazarbayev decided not to change the existing system, so as not to provide even a ghostly opportunity for close oligarchs to create a crack in the ruling elite with their behind-the-scenes struggle. It is possible that the new composition of the Mazhilis will have to carry out new constitutional reforms in the matter of redistributing power from the president to parliament. Therefore, everything must be under strict control.
Despite such an ostentatious idyll, protest sentiments in Kazakhstan are growing due to the fall in living standards as a result of the crisis in the raw materials model of the economy and the pandemic. In order to intercept and channel them, a street nationalist and liberal “opposition” is being created in the person of the Democratic Party and the youth movement “Oyan, Kazakhstan” (“Wake up Kazakhstan”), which protested in Almaty on election day.
It is interesting that the authorities constantly allow them to carry out unauthorized actions and do not detain or arrest them preventively, as happened this time. They were simply cordoned off and held, showing that it was these opponents of integration and young national liberals who were the true “oppositionists.” This is the general political picture emerging from the results of artificial elections with artificial parties and artificial protests.
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