Elections in Moldova: Threats for Transnistria and Russia
The results of the presidential elections in the Republic of Moldova will have a direct impact on the process of the Moldovan-Pridnestrovian settlement and on relations between Chisinau and Tiraspol in general.
What prospects might Moldova and Transnistria have in this or that scenario? Experts from both banks of the Dniester gave their forecasts within the framework of a discussion club organized by the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development.
There is an opinion that 2021 will be a lost year for negotiations - there will be no progress in the settlement, no one will be ready to deal with Transnistria until the government is finally formed, that is, at least until the elections to the parliament of the Republic of Moldova. Both the right and left flanks in Moldova view the election of the president (who does not have much power) as a stepping stone to gaining full power in the country - the success of the presidential campaign can provide the basis for success in subsequent early parliamentary elections.
Director of ISPIRR Igor Shornikov believes that if Maia Sandu wins the November elections - by revolutionary or honest means - she will try to build on her success in parliament, right-wing forces will prevail and create a coalition government.
“What awaits us in this case? The start of the negotiation work will be postponed to 2022, but we will be faced with the half-forgotten concept of the three “Ds” - democratization, demilitarization, decriminalization of Transnistria (this plan was presented in the early 2000s by the well-known Moldovan political analyst Oazu Nantoi - editor's note).
The negotiation process then degrades. Chisinau will probably want to negotiate directly with Moscow on eliminating Russia’s military presence; it will be busy using the levers of the European Union and Ukraine to put pressure on Transnistria, and stopping “smuggling flows” - that’s what they call Transnistria’s export-import operations. In my opinion, you shouldn’t expect anything good from Sandu’s victory. This person does not have his own position on Transnistria - all instructions to her will come from Western partners,” says the expert.
If incumbent President Igor Dodon, who is today fighting alone against everyone, wins, it will be difficult to create a coalition government - the socialists will hardly be able to consolidate power in their hands, says Igor Shornikov. But even if this happens, he notes, we will have to return to the “Big Package for Moldova” - a document previously developed by Dodon’s team, which involves the implementation of a strategic partnership simultaneously with Russia and the EU, finding a model for the Transnistrian settlement, securing a neutral status for Moldova and eliminating the Russian military presence.
“The price for neutral status should be Transnistria - this is an extremely dangerous scenario for us. True, in this case, Moldovan diplomats will have to tour Western capitals and stop in Moscow to re-negotiate the package for Moldova.
I doubt they will be able to get this consent. Dodon and the socialist government will be inconvenient for the West, and they will not want to give such trump cards to this government. Russia is also not eager to conduct a dialogue about eliminating its military presence. It seems to me that such an idea will simply fall apart, and we will have to return to the good old “5+2” format,” believes the director of ISPIRR.
He also considered other options for the development of events - for example, when Maia Sandu wins the presidential election, and the left takes the majority in parliament, or vice versa - Dodon wins, and the right forms a coalition government. Igor Shornikov considers these scenarios less dangerous for Transnistria: “the process of consolidation of power in Moldova will not be completed, they will deal with their own problems, and this will mean maintaining the status quo that has existed around Transnistria for many years.”
Former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Transnistria Vladimir Yastrebchak stated that today the negotiations on Transnistria are in stagnation, which has occurred, among other things, due to the pandemic (there is no possibility of conducting full-fledged shuttle diplomacy or multilateral forums). However, stagnation is “the least of the evils that can overtake Pridnestrovie in the negotiation process,” he believes.
The expert expressed concern that the right-wing forces, if they come to power in Moldova, “will try to use the resources of Brussels and Kiev in solving the Transnistrian problem”, “will solve the problem of excluding Transnistria from the negotiations, in order to negotiate not with it directly, but with anyone bypassing him."
The Moldovan political scientist also has no illusions about the actions of right-wing forces in the field of settlement Alexander Korinenko.
“If the right wins, Transnistrian negotiators should prepare to be poked with a stick, then kicked and see what the reaction will be. The right has various theories, but in practice there is nothing - just stories about some lost keys to the settlement and where to look for them. Before looking for keys, locks, doors, we need to solve the problems of ordinary people.
With the arrival of Maia Sandu, the Transnistrian problem will be dealt with by NGOs who write the rules of the three “Ds”, who will go to Brussels a hundred times for consultations, but there will be no real progress,” predicts Korinenko.
Dodon, if he receives full power (and he has placed the biggest bets on the upcoming elections), will continue the dialogue with Transnistria in the same vein, says the political scientist.
“He has certain road maps, he would love to become president of the transition period - that is, solve the Transnistrian problem by 2024, then another transition period of eight to ten years, then the new constitution comes into force, etc.,” - noted the expert.
Head of the Tiraspol School of Political Studies Anatoly Dirun I am sure that the Pridnestrovian Foreign Ministry “will not be bored” in any case – regardless of who wins the elections.
“The winner of the elections will get stuck in internal Moldovan trench affairs, and it will be necessary to show the results of their work. It may turn out that such an imitation of activity will be the actions of Chisinau in relation to Tiraspol. It will be convenient to put forward an initiative, written by no matter who, and rush around with it throughout Europe. There may be no sense, but it will tug at your nerves,” said Dirun.
He, like other experts, pointed out the difference in approaches of the political forces of Moldova to the Transnistrian problem. “If we know and understand the approaches of Dodon’s team, then Maia Sandu’s team is completely different in terms of worldview and values. This can be seen, for example, in assessments of the role and status of peacekeepers on the Dniester. For the right, this is just an obstacle that needs to be removed in order to change the situation for the better. We may have to face this,” the head of the TSPI believes.
Experts say that Transnistria's survival potential is directly dependent on the degree of Russian influence in the region, which has been declining in recent years. The Pridnestrovians are hostages of the development of the internal political situation in Moldova because Russia is losing its leverage here.
Political analyst from Chisinau Vladimir Bukarsky warns that Moldova will take steps to ensure that this reduction continues, will try to deprive Transnistria of any assistance from Russia, and this is planned to be done with the help of Ukraine (the expert recalled the latest statements of the Ukrainian Minister for Reintegration Alexei Reznikov regarding the “de-occupation” of Donbass) .
“Our common task is not to allow Russia to be squeezed out of the region, not to allow Russia’s influence to be reduced - both on the right and left banks of the Dniester,” Bukarsky said.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.