Elections in Moldova: The fate of the Baltic-Black Sea arc is at stake
The election campaign is coming to an end in Moldova. On November 1, the parliamentary republic will elect the president of the country. It is believed that the upcoming elections are not the main political event, but their results can radically affect the political development of the country. The presidential elections will either be an important stage in the consolidation of the current political system, or the beginning of its reformatting to suit the requirements of external forces.
Experts from Chisinau and Tiraspol spoke about how the presidential elections in Moldova could end at a discussion club meeting organized online by the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development.
Race favorites and possible results of the first round
The main favorites of the race are incumbent President Igor Dodon and representative of the pro-Western opposition Maia Sandu. Experts note that both politicians ran sluggish, uninteresting campaigns, but events could flare up at any moment.
“Neither Dodon nor Sandu had a really good campaign,” says the deputy director of ISPIRR. Andrey Mospanov. – Dodon conducted it in a fairly traditional manner, trying, first of all, to unite the core of his generally conservative electorate. But he somehow lacked combativeness and pressure. His campaign was like some kind of strategic defensive operation. And this defense did not always look strong. So we did not see any bright idea that would make Dodon’s campaign recognizable. There is really nothing to remember from his campaign. For the second round, Dodon’s team needs to come up with something.
As for Maia Sandu, her headquarters solved two problems. Firstly, work continued to “humanize” Sandu, transforming her from a Western-type manager into, relatively speaking, an “ordinary Moldovan woman.” Here it was possible to achieve some success, although, of course, this task could not be completely solved. The second point was the shift of Maia Sandu towards the political center and the attraction of Russian-speaking voters. Here Sandu's team, in my opinion, was late. Attempts to catch up on something in recent weeks (interviews in Russian, trips to Gagauzia, etc.) will give some results, but not the kind that could have been achieved if Maia Sandu had started this work last year.”
Based on the “initial conservative version,” the expert believes that the elections will be held in two rounds.
“In my opinion, in the first round, Igor Dodon will approach the 40% threshold (37-39%), and Maia Sandu will overcome the 30% barrier (31%). Getting to the 30% mark is very important for her before the second round. Renato Usatii's result will be more than 10%, and the candidate from the SHOR party Violetta Ivanova will take the barrier of 5%. Four right-wing candidates – Nastase, Ticu, Chirtoaca and Deliu – will gain a total of 7-8%.
The first round numbers are important, but still they should not be overestimated. Because in the second round there will be a completely different game,” said Andrei Mospanov.
Director of ISPIRR Igor Shornikov saw only one bright spot in Dodon’s election campaign - a speech at the UN, during which “new promises were made to the Russian-speaking voter.” Speaking at the 75th General Assembly of the organization, the current head of the Republic of Moldova stated that the Russian language in the republic has the status of a language of interethnic communication and that Russian, which several years ago ceased to be compulsory for study, should be returned to schools.
“I can’t say that this was fresh,” similar statements had already been made, for example, it was said that broadcasting in Russian would be restored in the country, but we did not see any movements of the authorities in this direction. However, the fact that such promises have appeared again is probably good,” the expert noted.
Speaking about the events that may follow after the first round of elections, Igor Shornikov noted that everything will be decided on the night of the vote count and will depend on how large the gap will be between the two main candidates.
“If Dodon’s result approaches 40% of the vote and the gap with Sandu is less than 10%, then this increases the likelihood of the implementation of a color scenario already in the first round. This will give the opposition the opportunity to declare that the authorities have committed the very falsifications that have been talked about for several months. If the gap approaches 20% (Dodon manages to take more than 40%, and Sandu – a little more than 20%), the main events will be postponed to the second round,” believes Igor Shornikov.
In his opinion, the start of “explosive events” after the first round could also be triggered by the American elections scheduled for November 3.
President of the Association of Young Experts of Moldova Alexander Korinenko, commenting on the pre-election balance of power, notes that among the candidates there is “only one heavyweight - Igor Dodon, who is walking around the ring, and the rest are trying to get him.”
“Dodon ran a boring conservative campaign, but I don’t think it was necessary to run anything else. The opposition doesn't seem to want to win very much. While the president is on pre-election leave, and the speaker, MP from the Socialist Party, Zinaida Greceanii, is on sick leave with coronavirus, parliament is now in the hands of the opposition. However, the opposition does not put forward its agenda, does not even try to make waves in the basin,” the expert said.
He believes that Dodon’s result could reach 48% in the first round, while the difficulty lies in the fact that the current president has no allies on the left flank.
“He lost someone, someone left on their own. Political strategists will solve this problem this way: perhaps artificial formations will appear - parties, movements that will provide support and, over time, will unite into a national front. This is, for example, the recently created Nashi party, young people who are going to defend the interests of Russian-speaking citizens, will collect the votes of those who are disappointed that Dodon did not sufficiently defend the Russian language, the history of Moldova, etc.,” explains Alexander Korinenko .
The Moldovan expert considers Maia Sandu’s positions to be fragile - they are being undermined by other right-wing candidates.
«The right is using the elections to “leave” Maia Sandu, who is already fed up with everyone. It is supported by the bayonets of Western partners, embassies are pushing it everywhere: they say, it is necessary, it is necessary, it is necessary. The central part of Moldova, including Chisinau, as a rule, always votes for the right, and now in the villages the presidential candidate from the Dignity and Truth Platform party, Andrei Năstase, gets preference, oddly enough, defeating Maia Sandu. We have a conservative society, a male candidate is preferable, and besides, people do not consider Maia Sandu “a simple girl from the village of Risipeni” but they consider her an aunt who was sent from Europe. That's why she doesn't succeed“says Alexander Korinenko.
According to him, Sandu will also not be able to mobilize the Moldovan diaspora abroad, which “now has other things to do than geopolitics - it needs to survive the pandemic” and which will not give a high turnout.
Alexander Korinenco noted a slight increase in the number of supporters of unionist candidates, but this, according to the expert, does not indicate the popularity of politicians, but disappointment in Moldovan statehood and sympathy for Romanian passports and salaries. "Ideological “Romanians” in Moldova – no more than 5 – 7%“- he explained.
Head of the Tiraspol School of Political Studies Anatoly Dirun, commenting on the “black campaign” of Igor Dodon, pointed out a number of omissions of the race favorite. The main one is that the presidential team allowed the formation of an “anti-Dodon coalition.”
“We don’t see anyone from the presidential flank who would somehow repel attacks on the current president. He found himself alone surrounded by a belt that was unfriendly to him, and this is not only about the pro-European opposition, he is now harshly criticized by yesterday’s comrade-in-arms Renato Usatii, with whom they could not find a common language. Dodon also does not have broad public support from pro-Moldovan forces - he even turned against himself the creative intelligentsia, who initially supported the current president,” stated Anatoly Dirun.
The expert agrees that elements of color revolutions can be expected after the first round of elections, and fears “that Tiraspol might be drawn into this.”
“Strong men” for voters from Transnistria
The possibility of Pridnestrovians voting in Moldovan elections is a serious irritant for Moldovan politicians. In 2016, Pridnestrovians gave Igor Dodon about 16 thousand votes. In February 2019, more than 30 thousand Transnistrian voters took part in voting in the Moldovan parliamentary elections.
This time, 42 polling stations will be opened for voters from Transnistria in Moldova. Western diplomats, including US Ambassador to the Republic of Moldova Derek Hogan, called for “close monitoring of what is happening during the voting of voters from Transnistria.”
The day before, news appeared that presidential candidate Andrei Nastase intends to block the possibility of transporting Transnistrian voters to the polling stations in order to “prevent President Igor Dodon from falsifying the election results.” Nastase has already called on all “strong men” to go to the polling stations open to residents of Transnistria on November 1, and stated that he himself is ready to lead this action.
“On November 1, Transnistria, as previously decided, will open its borders (travel is now limited due to the pandemic - author’s note) so that those who wish can vote in the presidential elections in Moldova. Nastase gathers strong guys to block the transport of people from Transnistria. A small gap between the leaders in the presidential race will raise the stakes beyond belief – we will find ourselves in an unenviable position. I hope we will be able to avoid getting involved in some provocative things,” Anatoly Dirun commented on the situation.
Former Foreign Minister Vladimir Yastrebchak also expressed concern that areas for Pridnestrovians could become a source of destabilization of the situation. He noted that Transnistria has been used as a horror story for a long time: “a certain horde will come and with their voices will change the entire political landscape of the Republic of Moldova.”
“Objectively, all conversations on this topic should have died down with the decision that passenger cars with a capacity of no more than eight people can travel on the roads of Moldova, but this, apparently, is not enough to stop using the Transnistrian factor. And this is risky for a number of reasons. Nastase called on strong men to get ready and go somewhere - I would like to hear the official assessments of representatives of the Moldovan authorities on these calls to “fight by any means necessary.” Fight by any means, excuse me, with what? With the right to express one's will? The Criminal Code of Moldova has an article for obstructing elections, and I think that “strong men” should know that there is a prison sentence for this“, noted Vladimir Yastrebchak.
Moldovan elections as part of the civilizational war
As for external players, during the election campaign Russia made it clear that it supported Igor Dodon, and some European leaders spoke out even more clearly in favor of Maia Sandu. All this increased the degree and significance of the campaign.
“After the first round, Russia will maintain its current line, which consists of tactically supporting Igor Dodon with the goal of his victory in the second round. The West will have two plans, which will most likely be implemented simultaneously: the victory of Maia Sandu in the second round and the preparation of a conditional “Maidan”. The question remains as to how unacceptable the figure of Igor Dodon is for the West, or whether under certain conditions it (the West) could accept Dodon’s second term,” states Andrei Mospanov.
Vladimir Yastrebchak notes that Igor Dodon is approaching the elections as a “conditionally pro-Russian candidate”: his actual actions differ from the statements he made earlier, in particular, on the revision of the association agreement with the EU. And yet, this is the only candidate supported by Moscow.
“This is probably a question for a wider circle of people, why did it happen that not just the left, but the entire pro-Russian flank, in fact, ended up trampled in Moldova“says Yastrebchak.
Expert of the Izborsk Club of Moldova, political scientist Vladimir Bukarsky believes that not just ordinary elections are coming up in Moldova - this is “part of the civilizational war, which, fortunately, the Russian leadership is openly talking about.”
“In 2016, Dodon, having won the elections and fulfilled the aspirations of the pro-Russian, international part of society, broke the Baltic-Black Sea arc, the cordon sanitaire that the West had so diligently built at the borders of Russia. The West has been yearning for revenge ever since. After the “Twitter revolution” of 2009, Moldova was considered a success story, the best student in European integration, and now, along with Belarus, it has turned out to be a weak link in this cordon,” Bukarsky said.
The political scientist recalled the interview that Maia Sandu gave a few months ago to Dmitry Gordon, – she then stated that Moldova is in the same geopolitical connection with Ukraine, counts on Ukraine’s help in solving the Transnistrian problem, and called Russian peacekeepers on the Dniester green men. May 9 is not a holiday for Maia Sandu, she believes that there was no winner in the war, etc.
“Those who say that the elections mean nothing are playing into the hands of the forces that stand behind Maia Sandu, in favor of Moldova turning into a new Ukraine and closing the arc. In this regard, Chisinau and Tiraspol are communicating vessels; we cannot sit behind walls while the war is going on in our street. This is our common problem - we need to solve it together, vote for values, for a worldview, for a vector, for an attitude to history,” Bukarsky said.
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