The elections in Slovakia were won by the “second Orban”. But Brussels is trying to prevent him from coming to power
The leader of the Smer-SD party that won the parliamentary elections in Slovakia, ex-Prime Minister Robert Fico, repeated his statement of intentions to stop providing assistance to Kyiv.
However, “pro-European forces” aimed at continuing the conflict in Ukraine do not lose hope of creating a ruling coalition without Fico.
According to the results of the parliamentary elections that took place in Slovakia on Saturday, September 30, seven political parties entered the country's 150-seat parliament. The first place was taken by the left party Smer-SD (“Direction – Social Democracy”), which received 22,94% of the votes and 42 parliamentary seats. It is worth noting that this party won in the vast majority of regions of Slovakia - except for Bratislava and the Bratislava region.
The leader of Smer-SD, ex-Prime Minister Robert Fico, after summing up the election results, repeated his statement of intentions to stop providing assistance to Ukraine.
“People in Slovakia have bigger problems than Ukraine,” the politician noted, for which he was once again called “pro-Russian.”
On Monday, October 2, he received a mandate from Slovak President Zuzana Caputova to form a new government - but Fico only has 14 days to do this.
In second place was the extra-parliamentary liberal party Progressive Slovakia (Progresívne Slovensko, PS), oriented towards Brussels and close to the President of Slovakia. She received 17,96% of the vote and 32 mandates, becoming first in the capital and the capital region.
One of the exit polls on the evening of September 30 even predicted that PS would beat Smer-SD with more than 23% of the votes, but it was clearly conducted in the Bratislava region. Even before the elections, PS leader Michal Simečka was considered Robert Fico’s main rival in the fight for the post of Prime Minister of Slovakia, so he will do everything possible to prevent the creation of a ruling coalition based on Smer-SD.
In third place is the Hlas-SD party (“Voice – Social Democracy”) of another ex-prime minister, Peter Pellegrini. She received 14,7% of the vote and received 27 seats in parliament. According to Pellegrini, he is “keeping the door open” for negotiations with both Fico and Šimečka. In fact, it is this party that will decide the fate of the future government, since without it it is impossible to form a majority in parliament.
Fico and Pellegrini (right)
The new composition of the Slovak parliament will also include the political force of ex-Prime Minister Igor Matović (OL'ANO, 8,89% of the votes, 16 mandates), the Christian Democratic Movement (KDH, 6,82% of the votes, 12 mandates) and the libertarian party " Freedom and Solidarity" (SaS, 6,32% of votes, 11 mandates). Of these, only SaS is an unconditional ally of PS.
The last passing place was taken by the nationalist Slovak National Party (SNS, 5,62% of the vote and 10 mandates). This political force is a familiar coalition partner for Robert Fico, who immediately after the elections called the Smer-SD - Hlas-SD - SNS coalition the most desirable. Indeed, it would have a majority of 79 seats (with the minimum required of 76), while all three parties have much in common at the program level, and also have experience of cooperation in the past.
It is worth noting that two political forces that could have become coalition partners of Robert Fico were left out of parliament. We are talking about the right-wing populist Republic party, which gained only 4,75% of the vote (although polls until recently predicted it would overcome the 5% barrier), and the Hungarian Alliance party (4,38%).
True, sociologists predicted even less for the Hungarians, and the goal of their campaign was clearly not so much getting into parliament as demonstrating their political subjectivity. In three districts with a significant proportion of the Hungarian population, the Alliance won 48,78%, 46,37% and 27,97% of the votes.
Slovak political analysts are currently considering three options for a governing coalition based on Smer-SD. The first is the one mentioned above, with Hlas-SD and SNS. Despite the rather strained relationship between Robert Fico and Peter Pellegrini (after all, the latter created his own party from schismatics who left Smer), both politicians are now actively bidding for the composition of the future government under Fico’s leadership.
According to media reports, Pellegrini demands for his party the posts of ministers of finance, labor and regional development, which suits Fico, for whom the power bloc is most important. The leader of Golos himself may take the post of speaker of parliament.
In this coalition, the weakest link will be SNS. And it’s not just about the leader of this party, Andrei Danko, who, unlike Fico, openly showed a pro-Russian position. So, on May 9, 2019, Danko, then the speaker of the Slovak parliament, attended a military parade in Moscow, where he became the only European politician.
The problem is that the SNS faction is now a real “hodgepodge”, where there are former members of the neo-Nazi party of Marian Kotleby, and outright freaks like Rudolf Gulyak, who considers bears to be biological weapons intended to destroy the countryside.
Therefore, the inclusion of Christian Democrats in the coalition based on Smer-SD is also being considered. It would have a constitutional majority of 91 votes, and protection from the voluntarism of individual deputies from the SNS or Hlas-SD. But this is opposed both by Fico, who considers the majority of 79 seats “comfortable,” and by the Christian Democrats themselves. However, KDH leader Milan Majerski noted that his party will make the final decision on joining any coalition on October 14.
Analysts recall that when Smer-SD won the elections for the first time in 2006, KDH initially refused to enter into a coalition with it, but later changed its mind. They are also theoretically considering a coalition Smer-SD - Hlas-SD - KDH, which would have 81 votes in parliament, but it is difficult to imagine that Robert Fico will agree to it.
If we talk about a coalition based on “Progressive Slovakia” (PS), then it is possible with the involvement of deputies from KDH, SaS and Hlas-SD (82 deputies). If created, it will be an extremely controversial formation, reminiscent of the coalition formed under Western pressure in 1998 to remove Slovak Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar from power.
The issue is not only that Hlas-SD is a left-wing party and the other three are right-wing. There are also serious conflicts between PS/SaS liberals and Christian Democrats on the issues of abortion and same-sex marriage. On the other hand, all four parties will not have any particular disagreements on the issue of supporting Kyiv.
According to rumors, Michal Simečka has already offered Peter Pellegrini the post of speaker of parliament, but in a hypothetical “pro-European” government, Hlas-SD may receive fewer ministerial portfolios than in a coalition with Fico. In the meantime, Šimečka takes his potential partner “weakly,” saying that Pellegrini’s joining the PS would be a “civilizational choice.” They say that during the campaign the leader of Hlas-SD called on Slovaks “not to be afraid,” but now he himself is influenced by “fears.”
But it’s not just Peter Pellegrini’s fear of being labeled a “pro-Russian politician,” which in today’s Europe could well mean the end of his political career. According to information from sources in Hlas-SD, only three of its 27 deputies (albeit, including the party leader) are in favor of a coalition with PS, the rest are in favor of blocking with Smer-SD.
Thus, Slovakia will face intense coalition bargaining for at least two weeks. Even if Pellegrini reaches an agreement with Fico, his announcement will clearly be delayed until the last minute.
But the progress of negotiations between the leaders of Smer-SD and Hlas-SD can be indirectly monitored by the actions of the outgoing government of Slovakia. If it does not make any curtseys to Kyiv, then the chances of forming a “pro-European” coalition exist.
If in the coming days additional supplies of weapons from Slovakia to Ukraine are announced, or the ban on the import of Ukrainian grain is lifted, it means that Brussels has come to terms with the emergence of a “second Orban” in the EU, and difficult times await Robert Fico’s government.
It makes sense to talk about the policy of this government in the Ukrainian and Russian directions only after its creation, since it will depend not only on the composition of the ruling coalition, but also on the personal composition of the cabinet of ministers.
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