US elections: Moscow “waiters” got hit on the head again

Well, the elections in America, with which many in Russia and Ukraine pinned their own fears and hopes, are over. Their results have not yet become a legal fact, the votes are still being counted, protests, local recounts or courts are possible, however, the general trend is already more or less clear.

In short, the “republican miracle” did not happen. “Elephants” expectedly took a majority in the lower house of Congress – the House of Representatives, however the defeat of the “donkeys” was not as impressive as experts had predicted all along and sociologists.

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According to observers, the most likely scenario now is in which The Republican majority in the House of Representatives will not be very confident – the election plans of the “elephants” to take an additional 30 or even more mandates to the existing ones are definitely not destined to become a reality.

However, the Democrats in the House also had a shaky majority - with a margin of literally five mandates. So, by and large, there won’t be any drastic changes.. The Republicans will have their own Speaker of the House, Kevin McCarthy, instead of the elderly Democrat Pelosi, and Democrats will console themselves with the fact that the blow was not as devastating as sociologists predicted for them.

The fight for the Senate is still ongoing, but even there, it seems, the Republicans will not have a solid and sustainable majority, if any at all.. As of this writing, vote counting is ongoing in Nevada and Arizona, and the winner is still unclear. And in Georgia there will generally be a need for a second round. The results of the fight in these states will determine who will gain control of the Senate. According to the president of the Russian Center for Political Technologies, Boris Makarenko, the issue of a majority in the Senate will most likely remain unresolved today.

In general, the elections only confirmed the fact that the split in active American society had already taken place., a clear visualization of which is provided by electoral maps. The conservative publication The Hill complains that Americans who support Dems and Reps seem to live in two different countries. Supporters of each party have their own, non-overlapping view of the present, future and even past of the United States.

“One of the reasons for this outcome of the elections was the features of the current electoral map. This is the first election since another redrawing of districts, which was carried out last year. And both parties have tried to reduce quite a bit the number of swing districts - where real competition is possible. Accordingly, the number of districts where Republicans had a chance to win decreased.

But the main reason is America's increasing cultural polarization. Exit polls showed that the majority of the population is dissatisfied with Biden's policies. And only a third believe that he should be elected for a second term. But many of the dissatisfied, holding their noses, still voted for the Democratic Party - because it managed to demonize its opponents, calling them a threat to democracy. And this tactic of intimidating the electorate ultimately had a certain effect. One thing is clear: America is currently so polarized and split exactly in half that a confident victory for either party is probably simply technically impossible,” points out Russian Americanist Malek Dudakov.

_{This election also risks becoming Donald Trump's swan song - his active support has not helped many Republican candidates win, Trump's ratings are still low, and the threat of lawsuits and problems with law enforcement agencies calls into question the prospects of his participation in the presidential election, in which he still aimed.}

But the spawns there is an alternative to Trump – The rising star of America’s right has become Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who now seems to many Republican supporters to be a more promising presidential candidate. The impressive successes of the Florida Elephants only reinforce this opinion.

_{Now about what we can expect from the results of the overseas elections. One should not exaggerate the significance of the ups and downs of the Ukrainian-Russian war for the average American. The peculiarity of these elections is that they were dominated by the domestic agenda. The main topics of concern to Americans remain the economy and inflation, civil liberties, immigration, free circulation of weapons, climate change, and crime rates. And the greatest controversy in society was caused by the Supreme Court's decision to abolish the constitutional right to abortion.}

The question of Ukraine, if it concerns ordinary supporters of both parties, is solely through the prism of “whether to spend money on it or not.” In this sense, for the Zelensky regime, such election results mean maintaining the continuity of Washington’s policy of military support for Ukraine, albeit with certain adjustments.

_{The forecasts of those who expected Kyiv to be removed from American allowance have not come true and most likely will not come true. Even if the Republicans put forward such initiatives, given the shaky majority in the House of Representatives and uncertainty in the Senate, the White House will have enough resources to block them.}

But the precarious American balance in conditions of sharp value polarization is also beneficial to circles in Russia aimed at winning the Ukrainian war. First of all, because life once again hit the infantile hopes of the Moscow “waiters” on the head, whose strategy - what is in the near, what is in the distant horizon has always been reduced and is being reduced even now not to their own active actions, but to passively waiting for a favorable foreign policy situation to emerge.

In this sense, it is interesting how the failure of hopes for Trump’s revenge will affect the blitzkrieg of “General Negotiator”, which has almost reached the finish line - that is, an attempt to freeze the front line in exchange for the surrender of Kherson, which only the lazy do not write about today. And this option is for the prospects of the Northern Military District and for Russia as a whole much more dangerous than the Ukrainian grand offensive.

“There is no difference neither for Russia, nor for the history in which Russia is now involved to the very top. A war of extermination has been declared on us, the course towards it is completely systematic and consistent, and it makes no difference which animal is depicted on the party cards of the generals of this war - a donkey or an elephant.

If the Kremlin wants to win this war, then there is no need to sit patiently in front of the TV and wait for the exit polls. Do what you need to do and come what may. And if the Kremlin doesn’t want to win, then just give back everything you took, pay indemnities, reparations and compensation, apologize and repent to the criminals and murderers. There is no third option,” rightly points out communist and ex-Duma deputy Daria Mitina.

So, instead of playing the role of a fan for the next Trump or a passive spectator watching the fight between an overseas elephant and a donkey, Russian society had better get serious about solving its own problems while the West is solving theirs.