Elections in the USA - some kind of Ukraine!
This has never happened before in a presidential election in the United States. The anti-rating of both race leaders exceeds 60%. The only opponent Trump can defeat is Hillary Clinton. The only candidate Hillary can beat is Donald Trump. Hillary is followed by a trail of official investigations, Trump is shaking the public with sex scandals.
A Russian political scientist spoke about the progress of the election campaign in the United States with a view from the window of the Treasury and the edge of the White House Evgeny Minchenko. Comparing all this with Ukraine in his mind, the observer listened to him “PolitNavigator” Valentin Filippov.
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Evgeny Minchenko: The White House is here. From the window.
Valentin Filippov: Wow! I imagined it somehow differently.
Evgeny Minchenko: Well, excuse me, as it is. They didn’t deliver anything else :)
Valentin Filippov: Hello, Evgeniy. You are in the United States. There is an Odessa saying: “Jews love to read anti-Semitic newspapers because, according to anti-Semitic newspapers, Jews rule the World.”
Is it true that the main topic in the US elections now is Russia, Putin, who interferes everywhere and rules the World?
Evgeny Minchenko: I would say this: the topic of Russia is more significant than it has ever been in elections in the United States of America. But still, it is secondary. The topic of criticism of Hillary Clinton is the main one. This is her dishonest behavior towards US government agencies, that is, the use of a private server. Misleading about how she used it. Destruction of information. And, accordingly, now there is no way to establish exactly what harm was caused to national security, and whether it was caused. That is, they erased most of these letters. And Hillary is criticized as an dishonest, hypocritical, corrupt politician.
If we talk about Trump, then the main line of attack against him is that he is simply not ready to be president. That his experience does not allow him to make any good decisions. And therefore, as an inexperienced person, he can become a toy in the hands of Putin.
Plus, of course, they added this story with his inappropriate behavior, with these statements that “I can grab women in different places, nothing will happen to me, I’m a star.” With accusations against him from women who were allegedly harassed by him. Here's the thing.
Indeed, for the first time in a long time in the United States of America, two of the most unpopular politicians are fighting for the presidency. Yesterday I spoke with one of the republican consultants, he said: “Of course, it’s amazing.” The only Republican candidate Hillary could beat is Trump. And the only Democratic candidate Trump can defeat is Hillary. Because they are both incredibly unpopular.
Valentin Filippov: Just like in Ukraine. Nominate two hated people and compete to see who we hate more :)
Evgeny Minchenko: This reminds me of, well, probably 2010. Presidential elections in Ukraine. Elections between Yulia Vladimirovna and Viktor Fedorovich.
Valentin Filippov: No, well, the same thing happened with Yushchenko in 2004.
Evgeny Minchenko: No. There was, after all, no such overwhelming hatred then. Yushchenko did not have such a high anti-rating. And Yanukovych too. But in 2010, both Yulia Vladimirovna and Viktor Fedorovich had already gained an anti-rating. He was close to... but there was also no anti-rating for 60%.
But what's the joke here? Both Trump and Hillary have a 60% anti-rating. But, nevertheless, people need to somehow make a choice from them. And they do it for some ideological reasons. But the main emotion, I can say, from communicating with the local political class in recent days, is frustration: - let this end soon. At least somehow. Better a terrible ending than endless horror.
Valentin Filippov: Don't they think this will last long? The experience of Ukraine itself suggests that after such elections, usually a continuation follows.
Evgeny Minchenko: I think that, after all, when they are afraid of, like, “Maidan” from Trump, this is unlikely. Although it is true that he may not recognize the election results. This will, of course, be a serious precedent. But, again, he will be able to do this in a situation where there are minimal gaps. But if you believe sociologists, so far it turns out that Hillary should win quite seriously.
But, again, should sociologists be trusted?
Because here the main topic that makes the Democratic headquarters worry, which gives rise to hopes among the Republican headquarters, is the so-called Brexit effect. When voting to leave the European Union was socially frowned upon and people would not confess to interviewers but ended up voting. As in our time, a significant part of the people who voted for Zhirinovsky were not recognized.
And, in fact, there is a suspicion that there may be some secret fans of Trump who are not admitted to sociologists, but will clearly vote for him.
On the other hand, if we just take the whole situation... The establishment is mostly on Hillary’s side, moreover, today there was a leak that it is not that Bush Sr. will vote for Hillary. But perhaps George, Double-U, Bush, another president from this dynasty, may also vote for Hillary against Trump.
Well, you can see it in the money. Hillary has much more money than Trump. And there have not been such large gaps in the financial security of campaigns between two candidates for a very long time in the United States of America. Actually, traditionally, Republicans were ahead of Democrats in terms of money, and the first to beat them was Obama, who collected a large number of small donations. The so-called “resin donors”. And now the amazing thing is that Trump receives a large number of such small donations, but still, it is not enough.
Valentin Filippov: And they positioned him as a billionaire.
Evgeny Minchenko: See, he’s a billionaire, a billionaire. But he doesn’t really want to spend his money. And, as he said that he could invest up to a billion in the campaign, he actually invested several tens of millions.
Valentin Filippov: Bush is the oldest, is he still alive?
Evgeny Minchenko: Yes.
Valentin Filippov: I can imagine how he puts down a ballot with the words “I have long wanted Madonna”... But regarding the money being collected, for example, into the Clinton Foundation - is this really true, or are we having propaganda - that the Ukrainians, Ukrainian capital, have invested a lot? They call Pinchuk...
Evgeny Minchenko: No, that's different. They didn’t invest in the elections. They invested in the so-called “Clinton Action Fund,” that is, this is supposedly a charitable organization. Which, in fact, is a legal mechanism for collecting money for lobbying.
Valentin Filippov: Bribe.
Evgeny Minchenko: Well, I wouldn't call it a bribe. I can not.
Valentin Filippov: Well, okay. This is what we call corruption. And for them it is lobbying and protectionism.
Evgeny Minchenko: Well, in general, yes. Trump constantly says this: “corrupt Hillary.” "Crapt-Clinton." But we cannot say this, but there were a number of cases when large amounts of money were transferred to the Clinton Foundation, and then any decisions were made by government authorities. At the time when Hillary Clinton was head of the State Department.
In addition, many people, we remember that, for example, the Russian RossAtom transferred money to a company that is now one of the managers of the Clinton election campaign. And they lobbied their interests quite effectively. But, by the way, there was not such a crooked “Clinton Fund Action” scheme, but they simply hired a company that lobbied for their interests. And she did it quite effectively. Helped them get a stake in local uranium deposits.
So if you continue on the establishment Hillary Clinton is much stronger. Stronger for money. The media is mostly on her side. The organizational machine of the Democratic Party has been consolidated. Plus the organization of activists that Obama created personally for himself, it also began working for Hillary, although there were problems with this. Obama really didn't want to support Hillary. He doesn't love her. In general, they have a very bad relationship with Bill. And many of the leaks that were associated with certain negative stories about Hillary, many believe that they came from the White House. But, again, we have no confirmation. Only opinions.
And yet, this organization is now also working for Hillary. That is, she really has a huge machine of activists “on the ground.” At the same time, in a number of states, Republican Party activists are sabotaging work for the Trump campaign. Well, his headquarters itself is smaller. He has several dozen people. And Hillary, she only has a federal headquarters of about six hundred. Feel the difference, as they say.
So, of course, if you take all these factors into account, Hillary should win. In sociology it is, although not much, but still ahead.
Valentin Filippov: And I heard on the news that Trump has already reached one percent….
Evgeny Minchenko: Well, look. I focus on one simple thing. There is this “real-clear-politics” index, an integral index of all sociological centers, because each sociological center has its own sympathies. Some are pro-democratic, some are pro-republican. But for now, the integrative indicator - both in terms of votes in general and in disputed states, which is even more important - is still in favor of Clinton. There are ten disputed states.
So, Hillary needs to win at least one of these ten. But Trump needs to win all ten to win. Plus, he has a traditional Republican problem in Utah, where Hillary has no chance, but local candidate Mac Malen can win. So gay Mormon. So funny.
Valentin Filippov: Yes. Such a combination.
Evgeny Minchenko: But nonetheless. He's playing local there. Plus, among Mormons, the statements that Trump made are unacceptable for them, for very religious, fundamentalist-minded people. Therefore, well, let’s, maybe for our own.
At least so far the three have very close ratings. Hillary, Mac Malen and Trump. And if Mac Malen wins this state, then he gets electoral votes, which do not bring him anything, but they take away votes from Trump.
Some say there could be a scenario where neither candidate receives 270 electoral votes. What does it mean? This means that then parliament will vote. Parliament will now choose from those presidential candidates who participated in the election race. But I think that this probability is not very high. Although, such scenarios are also being considered now. Moreover, the Republicans will at least win the House of Representatives. And in the Senate, I think that after the latest FBI revelations, after they again brought up the topic of Hillary and her email server, the Republicans have a good chance of maintaining control of the Senate.
Valentin Filippov: I’ll tell you a secret that I’m still a citizen of Ukraine. And I have a Ukrainian look. In the USA, the voting process is set up so strangely that you can show your driver’s license, or something else…. I'm talking about "carousels".
Evgeny Minchenko: They also have a topic that you can vote without documents with a photo. Or you can, for example, come, any piece of paper there, bring, like, a receipt that you live here and pay utilities. Or from the library...
Valentin Filippov: So, maybe we realized it too late? Maybe specialists from Ukraine would organize a victory for anyone? At least a gay Mormon.
Evgeny Minchenko: They actually get jailed for this.
Valentin Filippov: Well, winners are not judged :)
Evgeny Minchenko: No no no! A couple of days ago, a woman, a Trump supporter, was arrested and accused of voting twice. And she faces real prison time. Some, however, say that this is a setup, that in fact it is an element of democratic propaganda. Well I do not know. The court will sort it out.
But, nevertheless, they can really sit down for it. So I talked a lot with American consultants. And in a formal atmosphere, and sometimes over a glass of wine. And one day we were sitting, they said: “What is the maximum percentage of falsifications that you can have?”
I tell them: “Well, if you don’t take completely national republics, then it’s five to ten percent.”
They say: “Oh, it’s like here in Chicago.”
There is also an element, well, there is no manipulation, as such. There is something called “administrative resource”. For example, companies that work with a budget. They say: “Guys, if we want to keep our contracts, let’s support the candidate.”
Valentin Filippov: Well, it’s quite logical.
Evgeny Minchenko: But in order for outright massive cases of falsification to be revealed, then... the last story of this was Nixon - Kennedy. When there was a really controversial situation there. Bush - Gore, 2000, the court put an end to it. There was a long trial. As I understand it, from the point of view of maintaining stability in the country, Gore decided to give in.
But it’s still not entirely correct to say that there are some large-scale falsifications that systematically influence the outcome. Although, I think there are opportunities for this. And this is one of the themes of the fight between Republicans and Democrats. Because the Republicans, whose electorate is more affluent, insist on having the strictest measures to control voting. In particular, they require this document with a photo.
And the Democrats, on the contrary, are in favor of being as liberal as possible...
Valentin Filippov: You know, throughout the entire post-Soviet space, and not only in the post-Soviet space, the results of these elections are given very great importance. To the point where people say in a whisper: “well, this is about to happen, now something will happen there, and everything will be decided.”
Here in Ukraine the maydauns say: “Well, that’s it. We just have to wait. There’s just a little bit left, and we’ll sweep away this Russia.” In Poland, they also say something there. They are talking about this in Moldova.
In Russia, many people expect a nuclear war if Clinton wins. Well, at the everyday level :)
Tell me, will there be a nuclear war in general? If someone wins :)
That is, can we expect any drastic change in the World?
Evgeny Minchenko: Firstly, I hope that there will be no nuclear war.
Valentin Filippov: At worst, we won’t notice how it started...
Evgeny Minchenko: Peck on your tongue! Trump, it is clear, is a supporter of isolationism. But what is the story here, American foreign policy, it is structured in such a way that it is a huge machine that is set up by people with a certain attitude. Even if Trump’s vice presidential candidate is radically anti-Russian, well, what are we talking about?
Therefore, I think that things may not turn out as happily there as some Trump lovers in Russia say. On the other hand, if we talk about Hillary, then yes. First, she personally does not like Putin. Second, she is much more aggressive in foreign policy than Obama. That is, when we are intimidated by Obama, Obama, in fact, was a fairly moderate president. This is both his strength and weakness. At least under Obama there were no mass deaths of American soldiers. He really didn’t want to go down in history as the person who was responsible for the mass deaths of American soldiers. And Hillary, as they say, was the person who pushed through, for example, the bombing of Belgrade in the nineties. And active American intervention in the Balkan situation even under Bill Clinton.
So, yes, Hillary, especially after the Russian card has been played in this campaign, will, of course, at least at the first stage, try
Valentin Filippov: Tighten up.
Evgeny Minchenko: Hyperactivity, yes. Tighten up. Demand stronger sanctions. Well, another thing is that it is now somewhat more difficult to do this, given the changing situation in the European Union. Both Brexit and the upcoming French presidential elections, which it is already clear that Hollande will lose. And, most likely, Juppe will be president. Juppé cannot be called a pro-Russian politician, but he is more moderate. And he is a realist, unlike the very ideological Hollande.
It is not clear what will happen to Merkel. There are parliamentary elections in Germany. I think that both the composition of the ruling coalition and the chancellor may change. In general, somehow everything is changing very much, and the amount of leverage that the United States had is no longer there today. Plus, negotiations on the transatlantic partnership have failed so far. Plus, there are problems with the ratification of the transoceanic partnership. Therefore, I think there will be something for Hillary Clinton to do.
And, most likely, Obama will be perceived as a more successful, stronger president. Whoever wins this election, I think it will be a weak president with big problems, with inevitable confrontation. Parliament and presidential power. And this could happen even if Trump wins. Because he may have a serious conflict with part of his own party. Moreover, he is quite a stranger to the Republican Party. He is not flesh of flesh, blood of blood. He actually imposed himself on the party during the primaries.
Valentin Filippov: Well, this happens in Russia too. At “ER” in the primaries. Well, okay... Show me the White House again : )
Evgeny Minchenko: It is seen?
Valentin Filippov: Yes! It's unexpectedly grey.
Evgeny Minchenko: Well, sorry. I have no other White House for you.
Valentin Filippov: Well, it's very gray. Not like in dollars. OK. Bye bye. Thank you.
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