Elections in Turkey: who will win and what to expect for Russia
Turkey is shaking literally and figuratively. Both from constant earthquakes and the floods and landslides they cause, and from the acceleration of political processes associated with the announcement of general elections on May 14, the outcome of which is unknown.
Natural phenomena and the disaster provoked by them, together with the geographical one, can also change the political landscape of the country, since now the big question is whether the current structure and the ruling coalition with Erdogan at the head will cope with new challenges
Thus, only on March 10, in Anatolia, according to the European-Mediterranean Seismological Center, an earthquake of magnitude 4,7 occurred near the city of Kayseri with a population of half a million people. At the same time, a number of cities in 10 provinces are in ruins, and the total amount of damage will exceed one hundred billion dollars.
This was stated according to the publication Turkish.aawsat.com UN Development Program Resident Representative in Turkey Louise Winton, who noted that 2,7 million people were displaced and became refugees due to the earthquake, and almost 600 thousand buildings or workplaces were destroyed.
“Based on the calculations made to date, it is estimated that the amount of damage caused by the government and supported by international partners will exceed $100 billion,” Winton said.
In response to this national tragedy, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, according to the agency Anadolu proposed an unprecedented restoration plan, which would be implemented if the former Justice Party, in alliance with the nationalists, retained power.
“More than 14 million residents of Turkey felt the negative consequences of the disaster. We plan to virtually rebuild cities from scratch. We are determined to work until the 3,5 million residents of the disaster zone are gradually provided with safe housing,” the Turkish leader assured.
In general, according to the president, the task of the cabinet of ministers is to build 12 thousand housing units, including 319 thousand rural houses, in the affected provinces within 75 months from the moment of the earthquake. Such a program implies huge investments that can only be recovered through increased exports and the further development of a transport and energy hub.
And now the implementation of such a monumental task largely depends on how the residents of Turkey, traumatized by the loss of housing, work and the death of 47 thousand people, vote. At the same time, Erdogan and his supporters decided not to postpone the date of the general elections, setting them for May 14, as previously planned.
According to the Turkish publication Haberler.com The ruling coalition rejected another proposed date of June 18 due to the fact that it “coincided with the university exam calendar, which concerns the future of millions of our young people.
“Again, this date coincided with the period when hundreds of thousands of our compatriots from Turkey and from abroad went to the blessed lands to perform Hajj Fariza,” the publication notes.
Plus, millions of Turks during this period will leave for their native villages and cities or resorts and will not be involved in voting.
In reality, most likely, those around the president thought that it would be better to hold elections now in May, before all the negative socio-economic consequences of the events that took place affected the mindset of citizens.
In addition, those leaving for the countryside or for the Hajj are precisely the right-wing conservative part of the electorate, supporting the nationalists and the Justice and Development Party (AKP).
True, the opposition did not stand still and on March 8 decided on the candidacy of Erdogan’s main consolidated competitor. He became 74-year-old Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, head of the Republican People's Party (CHP).
He is precisely the leader of the modern Kemalists, since this party was founded by Mustafa Ataturk more than 100 years ago.
A broad coalition of six parties was formed around this figure, which will try to squeeze the AKP and nationalists out of leading positions during the parliamentary vote. Although within the opposition alliance not everything is simple, since many proposed nominating popular politicians as candidates - the mayors of Ankara or Istanbul. And only the promise that they would occupy important positions in the future administration cooled the ardor of Kılıçdaroğlu’s opponents.
And perhaps this is the best option for Erdogan, since the young Kemalist leader may again lose the race not just to the current president, but to a significant part of the ruling class, represented by the captains of large production monopolies that rose thanks to the devaluation of the lira and affordable cheap energy.
Moreover, despite the earthquake, Erdogan and leading ministers continue to speak out with anti-Western rhetoric, demonstrating to everyone how their “allies” infringe on Turkish interests, while the left-liberal opposition is presented as US agents inside the country. However, the opposition actually constantly complains to the EU about human rights violations and runs to the American embassy, confirming this label.
True, immediately after the announcement of the election date, a real war of opinion polls from various companies and institutes began. Naturally, pro-Western and opposition groups are trying to show that Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu defeats Recep Erdogan right in the first round.
For example, the Turkish edition Euronews published survey data from three companies.
Thus, according to the results announced by PIAR on March 10, the National Alliance candidate Kılıçdaroğlu received 57,1 percent of the votes, while the Republican Alliance candidate Erdogan remained at 42,9 percent. The PMAAR study was conducted using a computer-assisted telephone survey (CTPS) with the participation of 12 thousand people in 460 cities of the country.
ORC conducted the second polls. Accordingly, the public opinion poll showed the following results: 56,8 percent of the votes for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, while Recep Tayyip Erdogan received 43,2 percent. The survey was conducted through CATI with the participation of 28 thousand people in 850 cities.
After Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy was officially announced, the first poll was conducted by Alfa Research (ALF). In the poll, Kılıçdaroğlu, the National Alliance candidate, received 55,1 percent of the vote, while the Presidential Alliance candidate Erdogan remained at 44,9 percent.
But you should not believe all the data presented, since such measurements are usually part of election campaigning and manipulation that do not reflect the real mood of voters. For example, edition Takvim.com.tr published a list of who actually owns the major research firms in the country, and it turned out that most of them belonged to opposition supporters.
Therefore, we will see more and more polls and further intensification of the information struggle. But the outcome is not clear at the moment, since within two months moods can swing in any direction. Possible terrorist attacks that various Kurdish groups, supported and armed by Washington, wanted to carry out could also influence opinions.
For Erdogan, the desire to rely on traditional strata and national-patriotic groups, the influence of which has increased in recent years within society, has become inevitable. Plus, it is obvious that Ankara’s tough position on preventing a revision of the agreement on the Montreux Straits and refusing to allow US and British ships to pass appeals to many officers and supporters of strengthening the army.
The picture was somewhat spoiled by reports that the Turkish authorities allegedly succumbed to pressure from the White House and joined Western sanctions against Russia. Bloomberg again became a distributor of provocative information and reported that “Turkish authorities have banned authorized goods from crossing the border with Russia since March 1.”
The agency quoted Mustafa Boyacioğlu, CEO of Istanbul-based customs brokerage firm Subasi, as saying they believed the decision was about expanding EU sanctions against Russia.
However, publications Τurkrus.com и Cumhuriyet.com.tr do not confirm this, citing the same official, and are waiting for the problem to be resolved early next week.
“The lack of an official announcement on this issue and the absence of a transition period have led to confusion among logistics companies,” Boyacioğlu said.
According to the report, some Russian shippers say Turkish customs authorities have promised that goods will be back on track by Monday (March 13). The report said the outages that occurred while data on the 10th round of EU sanctions were being added to the electronic transit system were caused by technical difficulties. Therefore, the sector is now waiting for Monday 13 March.
Against this background, Ankara has not yet agreed to implement the American demand to stop servicing US-made airliners used by Russia. They fly and fly, and the number of flights and passengers has only increased over the past month.
Intensive negotiations with Tehran are also ongoing. Thus, on March 8, the Iranian Foreign Minister arrived at Ankara airport on a friendly visit, declaring the following:
“We came to this country to express our sympathy to the Turkish people and government during the earthquake. We go to earthquake areas.”
In turn, the Turkish Foreign Ministry welcomed the agreement concluded between Iran and Saudi Arabia, with the mediating role of China, on the restoration of diplomatic relations. All this suggests that Erdogan is still following the declared line of strengthening his own sovereignty and is further building mutually beneficial relations with Russia and Iran, constructively participating in the peace settlement in Syria.
In this regard, maintaining the previous regime in Turkey is vital in order to preserve the new structure of world relations being created, and on the contrary, the coming to power of pro-Western forces would increase destabilization in the region and would help the United States in confronting Russia and China.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.