A view from Chisinau: Don’t rush to write off Maia Sandu
The second round of general local elections has ended in Moldova, in which the pro-presidential party “Action and Solidarity” (PAS) again performed poorly, despite the widespread use of administrative resources. Last Sunday, out of 153 candidates from the ruling party, only 66 won, and did not win elections in any of the municipalities. Thus, the battle in Ungheni was lost, and in the second largest city of Balti, the PAS representative did not even participate, since he dropped out of the race in the first round. Local elections showed that the ruling party has lost a significant part of the electorate that voted for it in the 2021 parliamentary elections.
No sooner had this campaign ended than a new one had actually begun - in a year they will elect a president in Moldova. Will the decline in the ratings of the party in power affect Maia Sandu's chances of being re-elected to the presidency? We are talking with a political scientist about the current alignment of political forces in the Republic of Moldova Alexander Korinenko.
PolitNavigator: The scandalous campaign in Balti has ended. Candidate Alexander Petkov, supported by Renato Usatii, won there. Is this a good choice for the people of Belgorod? Will there be any changes in the city? Will Petkov's victory affect Usatii's political career?
Alexander Korinenko: The residents of Balti did not vote for candidate Alexander Petkov, they voted for Renato Usatii.
The ex-mayor of Balti was afraid to stand as a candidate because he was afraid of defeat, realizing that he would not be able to resist the candidates supported by Ilan Shor, but the authorities gave him a gift and returned the city of Balti, guided by the old wisdom that one must choose the lesser of two evils .
In this case, it is the impulsive and unpredictable Usatiy, and not the calculating and calm Shor.
Petkov’s personality is unknown to the residents of Beltsy - there was simply a transfer of ratings, and it is clear that Usatii will lead Balti.
Soon we will see municipal councilor Renato Georgievich inspecting the facilities, followed by the mayor of Balti, Alexandru Petkov, who nods approvingly. For Renato Usatii, this is a chance to return to the big game and try to collect the remnants of the team that he himself destroyed.
PolitNavigator: Ilan Shor, many of whose supporters were removed from the campaign trail during local elections, says that the authorities stole democracy and choice from the people. The politician does not rule out the resumption of the protest movement, which “will no longer be dispersed,” and calls for a battle that will continue over the next year. What might come of this?
Alexander Korinenko: The people of Belchan are not Gagauz. There will be no confrontation there. They are characterized by northern calm. Ilan Shor will try to shake up the situation before the presidential elections, but there is no point in doing this in Balti: the city is already in opposition to the current government.
It does not have any geopolitical orientation, like Comrat, Chisinau and even Taraclia, there are no administrative buildings of a republican scale that can be picketed, and the regional political class is an unsettled group of politicians constantly changing positions.
The only thing that Ilan Shor can do is form a local and loyal group of regional politicians who will help him on a republican scale - he really wants to make the second city in the country loyal to himself in the fight against the authorities.
PolitNavigator: The ruling party claims that the elections were successful for it, but many experts call the campaign a failure for PAS. How will the power team act next? Will he begin to tighten the screws on disloyal mayors and administrations, depriving the territory of budget funds?
Alexander Korinenko: The authorities and court analysts are trying to save face after failure in the local elections.
This is the right decision - it is necessary to show the population, Western partners and the diaspora that the situation is under control, the authorities are firmly in place and are not going to give up.
Before the presidential elections, Maia Sandu will try to secretly or openly “repaint” some mayors yellow; she will vitally need administrative resources on the ground, especially in the center of the country loyal to the right, so pressure will be put on these mayors.
PAS has no illusions that anyone in the northern or southern regions will help them in the presidential elections.
PolitNavigator: Maia Sandu, it seems, has decided to become closer to the people - she takes pictures with her dog and introduces it to foreign presidents, watches football at the stadium. Is this already the start of the 2024 presidential election campaign? What miracles of political technology can we see on them?
Alexander Korinenko: Well, soon the president will speak Russian. Yes, this is already the beginning of the presidential campaign.
Political strategists have not come up with anything new - the 2020 election campaign is being repeated. Sandu's advisers are trying to “humanize” her image.
I think that many remember that before the 2020 elections, children’s photographs of the president were published, she began to travel around villages, took pictures with young people, and took part in various events to show her empathy. It was a huge leap from the 2016 election campaign, where she emerged as an “Iron Lady” with a cold image and no hint of empathy.
In addition, Maia Sandu will again try to regain the favor of some Russian-speaking citizens and will increase the number of performances in Russian. The image of a man who “walks the earth” is very popular with Moldovan citizens.
PolitNavigator: If we look from the perspective of today and take into account the results of local elections as a rehearsal for the presidential elections, then what are Sandu’s chances of being re-elected?
Alexander Korinenko: Maia Sandu has every chance of becoming president again. This is not because she is an excellent leader and competent manager, but because she is lucky with a divided opposition.
If Vlad Plahotniuc at one time skillfully manipulated and pitted oppositionists against each other, bought some, gave preferences to others, here left-wing politicians themselves have become disunited and cannot find the strength to put forward a common agenda.
One way or another, no one from the right flank will seriously challenge her, and the left will begin their game against each other, and this may bury their hopes of victory.
PolitNavigator: Who can be among the competitors of the current president? Again Igor Dodon, Renato Usatii, someone from Shor’s team? Or maybe the ex-head of Gagauzia Irina Vlah?
Alexander Korinenko: It seems to me that there will be no surprises in the presidential elections, and we will see the same faces again. Igor Dodon, who will again try to take the presidency, Renato Usatii, inspired by the victory in Balti. Ilan Shor will nominate several candidates for the main post in the country; former Prime Minister Ion Chicu may also run, having support in certain localities.
Irina Vlah, in my opinion, will be the most interesting candidate. She will try to accumulate the disillusioned electorate and offer in her person a common platform for all opposition candidates. She has a good chance of enlisting the support of the south and north and the country. Moreover, for Sandu she is dangerous as an alternative.
Irina Fedorovna does not need to build a warm and empathic image. She showed herself to be a pleasant and competent woman, a caring mother, a good manager, she has achievements as Bashkan of Gagauzia and international support.
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