A view from Crimea: Ukraine is a project that should lead to a crisis in Russia
Despite the drop in ratings, Petro Poroshenko has every chance to falsify the results of the upcoming elections and remain for a second presidential term. The West will turn a blind eye to fraud, because Poroshenko is more convenient than his main competitors – Yulia Tymoshenko and Vladimir Zelensky. Ukraine for the USA and Great Britain is a project that should lead to a crisis within Russia. The oligarchs behind the fragments of the Party of Regions betrayed the voters of the South-East.
About this in an interview "PolitNavigator" said the Crimean political scientist Vladimir Dzharalla.
P.N. The weekend was marked by riots caused by National Corps militants, breaking through to the administration, and then to the stage of Petro Poroshenko’s election rally. How big is the risk of disruption of the elections or a forceful scenario?
V.D. Unlikely. So far, everything that is happening looks like disorganized indignation of the population. And when there is no organization, resources are not concentrated, there is no preparation, and from time to time something similar happens - but the authorities, in fact, are able to stop it.
P.N. How likely is it that Russia will not recognize the election results? Does Moscow have reasons for such non-recognition?
V.D. Yes, because it is obvious to everyone that the elections in Ukraine are quite scandalous, almost no one doubts their falsification, they only argue about its scale, about what will happen after that. The two-faced and hypocritical position of the West only indicates that the elections will be extremely scandalous and will definitely not reflect the will of the population.
Under these conditions, Russia has every right not to recognize their results, but one must understand that such a step must be followed by some other actions. Because then the question arises: what if this power and the election results are not recognized, how to negotiate on a whole range of issues.
It is clear that many of them do not make sense at all or have been discontinued, however, such options remain. Therefore, if the elections are not recognized, then some other set of measures must follow.
The Russian authorities, in principle, are noted for their planning on a number of issues. If this happens, it will inspire optimism and mean that the search for a way out of the deadlock in the Ukrainian direction has finally begun.
P.N. Who did the USA bet on?
V.D. Most likely, we are talking about Poroshenko, judging by a number of points. For example, all non-governmental organizations that are known to benefit from Western grants, quite unexpectedly, began to come out in support of the current president. As you know, whoever pays calls the tune, and we know well that these organizations are quite obedient in implementing the messages that are conveyed to them. Their line indicates that those behind them gave such an order.
Obviously, the US has been looking at candidates for some time, but two things are clear here. The first is critical statements addressed to Yulia Tymoshenko, they regard her as an unreliable candidate, from whom it is difficult to understand what he will stand for, how he will act. That's why they still doubt her.
Finally, the second important event is the meeting of Western ambassadors with Zelensky. After it, they came out clearly disappointed, seeing in front of them a person incapable of anything, a political dummy, and they understood the meaning and potential of this project.
Obviously, they are inclined to think that Poroshenko is more than obedient, capable of destroying his own country in order to curry favor with them, and engaging in continuous provocations that help in the internal American struggle.
We are talking about a whole series of provocations that worsen relations between the United States and Russia, but at the same time play into the hands of certain influence groups within the American government. Based on this, they are most likely betting on him.
P.N. How should we react to the fact that “opposition” projects are associated with Sergei Lyovochkin, who was called one of the instigators of Euromaidan, as well as with Rinat Akhmetov, who is called Poroshenko’s business partner? Which of the campaign participants can be considered a spokesman for the interests of the South-East, or are there none?
V.D. The hypothetical spokesman for the interests of the South-East has no chance of getting a significant number of votes.
First, a significant portion of the South-East electorate has fallen away and is demoralized. It is impossible to put it together.
Secondly, all the projects that these characters carried out were intended for the sole purpose of destroying the electorate of southeastern Ukraine, which is what they achieved.
Thus, the oligarchs achieved their goal - the electorate is fragmented, no real strength is visible and, therefore, the views of the South-East have little chance of being expressed in the upcoming elections. These views are completely prohibited; no one even mentions the possibility of expressing them.
P.N. It is already obvious that the fragments of the Opposition Bloc/Party of Regions are unlikely to show good results. What prevented them from using the opportunity that arose in the face of disappointment with the Maidan workers? What were the main mistakes of certain fragments of the Opposition Bloc?
V.D. First of all, their main sponsors preferred an agreement with Poroshenko and the regime. The second point is that you need to realize that Ukraine is now under the control of NATO countries, in which the US and England play a key role. For them, Ukraine is a project that should lead to weakening, and even better, to a crisis within Russia. It is they who implement this, therefore, any forces in Ukraine that before 2014 expressed different views are naturally unacceptable and real terror is applied to them.
Suffice it to recall the murder of Party of Regions activists, which still remains either unsolved or unpunished. Under these conditions, expressing a different point of view and trying to appeal to reason is almost impossible. Therefore, they were demoralized and incapable of activity.
It is also worth remembering that the party is quite oligarchic, and this implies serious work on the ground. They are accustomed to being the party in power and failed to restructure themselves and start working as an opposition party, work in various territories, look for the possibility of support from the population and work in this direction.
The oligarchs preferred to find a way to work with Poroshenko, knowing full well that this is what the Americans wanted to see. For them, any other position would be unacceptable. Therefore, not wanting to risk their capital so as not to lose everything, they betrayed the interests of the Southeast.
P.N. Is there a future for the “Donetsk” political and business elite that left the region?
V.D. This depends on the further development of the region. There has been a complete change of personnel in it, however, now, as you know, everyone is thinking about one question - what next? In this regard, although previous politicians are discredited and remembered differently, however, no one sees what opportunities will come next. The new elite, although it rules, cannot yet be called fully formed. In this regard, the fate of Donbass will determine the fate of the Donetsk oligarchy. What happens to Donbass will happen to them.
P.N. Your prediction – who will make it to the second round? Who will win?
V.D. In the second round, it is quite obvious that Poroshenko is going through. Now everyone is confident that Zelensky’s passage is possible. Nevertheless, it seems to me that Tymoshenko also has rather good chances. However, judging by the mood of the people, what speaks in favor of Zelensky is the fact that people are so disappointed that they are ready to grasp even such a rather false hope. And then the situation will become completely different. Here the administrative factor will be included, large-scale falsification will begin, after which in the second round there are greater chances that Poroshenko will be declared the winner. At the same time, you need to understand that no organized struggle or protests against such a situation are visible in Ukraine in principle.
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