View from Odessa: Ukraine is plunging into anarchy and anarchy
Regional political projects will win the local elections in Odessa. Ukrainian nationalists will not receive any support from Odessa residents. Zelensky’s party loses ratings twice as much every month and can with great difficulty overcome the 5% barrier. The three leaders in the fight for the post of mayor of Odessa are the current mayor Trukhanov, the author of the law on the Russian language Sergei Kivalov and the representative of the opposition party, ex-governor Nikolai Skorik.
The fact that the head of the Odessa regional state administration, appointed by President Zelensky, has withdrawn himself from the leadership, and the current situation will lead to complete anarchy and uncontrollability, was told to PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov by Odessa political strategist, ex-chairman of the Odessa Regional Council Nikolai Pundik.
Valentin Filippov: Our virtual studio is located in the city of Odessa, greetings to the glorious hero city of Odessa from the glorious hero city of Sevastopol. We are visiting Nikolai Pundik.
Hello, Nikolai.
Nikolay Pundik: Good evening. Glad to see and hear you.
Valentin Filippov: Which of the Russians will watch us and doesn’t know, I must say that Nikolai Pundik is a fairly well-known politician here in Odessa, well, a politician, probably, or something...
Nikolay Pundik: Evil ruler.
Valentin Filippov: Yes. ... A representative of the criminal power that was swept away by the “people,” “the great people of the old European nation.” But Nikolai did not calm down and again strives for power.
Nikolay Pundik: Not certainly in that way. I’m not running anywhere, for the second election I’m absolutely not running anywhere. Actually, I didn’t become an official, but became the chairman of the regional council, so to speak, by accident. I was more involved in election technologies, that is, well, I was a political strategist, which I am, and arranged and organized elections. And it so happened that I worked all the time with one party, with that big party that was once called the “Party of Regions”. And now, yes, I am also participating in this process, I am helping one local party, also a very famous person - Sergei Vasilyevich Kivalov, the author of that famous Kivalov-Kolesnichenko law.
This is how I try to live in this Odessa politics, to somehow exist. But today, under this political system, under those national political leaders, I don’t see an opportunity for myself to get anywhere. I don’t understand what to do there, even in representative, even in local authorities. Given these vectors, these values, I don’t quite understand why I need this. Therefore, I try to apply all my knowledge and skills in the area in which I believe that I understand something, far from worse than anyone else in this country, and help those people whom I consider worthy.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. And these worthy people, you mentioned Sergei Kivalov, the author of the famous Kivalov-Kolesnichenko law, which was repealed by the “victorious Maidan,” let’s say...
Nikolay Pundik: No, not like that, Valentin. Look, it was not repealed due to some laws, it was repealed on formal grounds, they say, someone somewhere voted for someone, and this served... that is, the formal reason for the adoption of the law served as the basis for “the most honest courts in the world" to repeal this law.
A law that received not just approving, but laudatory reviews from the Venice Commission, so revered in Ukraine. The law, which even had an opinion from this commission, which, in principle, well, does not advise anything, it simply gives an opinion whether it complies with European laws, European tradition, or does not comply.
So, even then, the Venice Commission wrote simply laudatory odes to this law, saying that this is one of the best language laws in Europe, protecting the rights of both the national language and interethnic languages, as well as languages of national minorities, which, well, in my favorite There are only 133 nationalities in the Odessa region, so this problem is very big. But it was canceled on a formal basis, and today slightly different laws apply.
Valentin Filippov: But there is still no chance, through the courts, through the European Court, to somehow correct this situation? That is, well, maybe it can’t be fixed, but somehow it’s possible to screw up the Kiev leadership...
Nikolay Pundik: Well, let’s say, firstly, the topic itself has cooled down, cooled down very much. Yes? So they accepted everything there that, in fact, the Russian language is not even listed in the law on the Ukrainian language in the “other languages of national minorities,” but, I repeat, there is no such intensity, high temperature in this topic today. Although I can give you an example of one of the Odessa private schools. This is a private school, so parents there wrote an application about what language to study in. I can’t name, I don’t remember the school number, but just take my word for it – there wasn’t a single application from those wishing to study in the Ukrainian language.
Valentin Filippov: Well, we went through this in Crimea, and I have to tell you...
Nikolay Pundik: Yes. Well, this is typical exclusively for Odessa, but in all other cities, even in Kyiv, everyone meekly accepts this Ukrainization. Yes, in everyday life it remains the same...
Valentin Filippov: So, have people been broken or reformatted?
Nikolay Pundik: Not that they broke it. Do you understand how to tell you? Today, what political strategists call the “electoral field” has completely changed. That is, cities, especially that’s what all of Ukraine is focusing on, mainly Kiev, today these are 70 percent, and maybe more, visiting people. Visitors from the periphery, well, this is the fate of any capital of the world, starting from Paris and ending there, I don’t know... the whole periphery strives for the capital.
But if earlier the capital, and Odessa, in many ways still ground the visitors, adjusted them to suit itself, then today, I will not say about Odessa, because Odessa is still a special, very European, in the broad sense of the word, city , then the capital, unfortunately, even with such a mayor, is becoming more and more parochial. And not in a good way, there, Sholem Aleichem, a Jewish Ukrainian town, which was also very heterogeneous, not just Jewish, but truly international, where on Saturday Ukrainians milked cows from Jews, and on Sunday Jews milked cows from Ukrainians...
That’s why I say – you can’t say that the people were broken. Anyone who lived in this culture like this remains in it. It’s just that cities are becoming more and more peripheral. Well, such conditions are created. In fact, the population of Ukraine today... this is not my assessment, you can just read the assessments, there, Germany, you can read the assessments of Israel, they are quite open, they are in their periodicals, they are based on, well, there are methods ... they estimate the current population of Ukraine to be certainly not 35 or 36 million, as the official authorities say, but 10-9 million less, that is, about 26-25 million, which is probably more true.
Valentin Filippov: That is, all of us have practically left...
Nikolay Pundik: Well, if they really estimate the number of people who left, who officially left Ukraine, they estimate there to be about 5 million, then you can imagine how much it really is, most likely 2 - 2,5 times more.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. Local elections. Here in Odessa. You say: there is no point in participating in them. But people in fact, Odessa residents, expect that there will be some candidates who correspond to the city of Odessa. Which will be able to somehow squeeze out these endless “greens”, endless nationalists...
Nikolay Pundik: Valentin, let me tell you about the “greens”, and not only in Odessa. According to the estimates of our very serious Ukrainian experts involved in election issues, the “greens” will probably not win in any regional center. An option in Uzhgorod is possible, well, as the Transcarpathians themselves say, this is not quite Ukraine.
Valentin Filippov: Well yes.
Nikolay Pundik: Here. It’s possible that they are out there somewhere, well, they share first or second place with another candidate. And they certainly won’t win in any million-plus city. I can tell you the dynamics of our mood in Odessa. The end of May - the beginning of June, support for the Servants of the People, that is, the “greens” in common people... why the “greens”? Because all their propaganda products are on a green background and begin with the slogan “Ze”, Zelensky that is, Ze, and then there are “Servants of the People” and so on and so forth... So, if at the very beginning of summer, at the end of spring, the level of support, well, simply put, just their rating, the “greens” in Odessa and the Odessa region, was about 34%, in the middle of summer - about 24%, that sociology that I did at the end of August, they had 14 %.
Valentin Filippov: So, that's good.
Nikolay Pundik: Already good. And the one that was done by, well, let’s say our electoral competitors... well, you know that in Odessa everyone knows each other anyway and electoral competitors are very conditional... here is a certain political force that just recently did research for official use , so they literally finished, I think on the 18th or 19th, and last Saturday they handed it over. They already have 12,4. That is, if the trend... and there is still a month before the elections, before voting day... and if the trend continues, then the chances are very small that the “greens”... Yes, they will probably pass the five percent barrier. But with very little result. Then there is something else, this is what I will tell you about the “greens”, that on my part, well, I have a purely humanly normal attitude towards Oleg Nikolaevich Filimonov, right?, although his political views, well, these are his political views. In my youth, I remember when he was playing there with a vocal-instrumental ensemble, that is, back and forth, all this KVN, for me it’s expensive. Everything else, well, there are questions, well, this is his life and let him answer before the Almighty and before that court for his words. So here it is. If the “Zelenskys”, well, that is, “Ze”, without Filimonov at the head – 14,3, then with Filimonov at the head – exactly half as much. That is, the rating itself is mayoral, that is, they nominated Oleg Filimonov for mayor, you, as a resident of Odessa, understand that Filimonov is not that... well, recognition is generally one hundred percent in Odessa, right?
Valentin Filippov: Yes. But recognition is not a rating.
Nikolay Pundik: Certainly. Well, nevertheless, recognition today... in another time, right?, there, even five years ago, it probably would have been different... but, apparently...
Valentin Filippov: 7 years ago.
Nikolay Pundik: May be. But with actors and especially comedians at the head... apparently the vaccine has already worked, and as far as I know, there are several more regional lists where they tried to insert some comedians, some jokers at the head of these lists - the result is the same same. That is, without them, these regional lists have twice the rating than those headed by them, although Zelensky’s own rating, oddly enough, is quite high, it is at the same level as it was a little over a year later, there, Yanukovych, there, with Poroshenko... at the same level. Yushchenko only fell faster, and so...
Valentin Filippov: Yushchenko fell strongly.
Nikolay Pundik: Yes Yes. And so, in principle, it somehow rests somewhere in this, because we simulated the situation, if there were presidential elections today, then Zelensky would definitely win with one goal.
Valentin Filippov: Yes?
Nikolay Pundik: Certainly. For one simple reason - there is no alternative, none at all. It is clear that the people are tired, there is absolutely no trust in political parties. Believe me, only local projects, only what are called “regional parties” will win, mostly win, in these elections. I’ll start listing them for you - you’ve never heard of the vast majority of them and, probably, you’ll never hear them at a big political conference.
Valentin Filippov: Good good. But in Odessa, look, here... for me Odessa is a separate state, it turns out I’m a separatist, right? In Odessa, too, will only regional parties win?
Nikolay Pundik: Definitely. The first three places will be occupied only by regional parties. Well, maybe…. No, I beg your pardon, “United...”, what is it called? OPZZH?...
Valentin Filippov: Yes. That's why I wanted to ask...
Nikolay Pundik: Yes, they will be, well, probably second in the city, and maybe first in the region.
Valentin Filippov: But I very often hear from my friends in Odessa, when we communicate, when I ask: “Who will you vote for?”, he says: “For Mayor Trukhanov, for the OPZhZ party.”
Nikolay Pundik: Yes. This also exists. Although…
Valentin Filippov: Isn't it massive? Yes? That trust in “Trust Deeds” is lower than in Trukhanov himself? That is, they want to vote for Trukhanov and some other party.
Nikolay Pundik: You know how... sometimes yes, sometimes no. Of course, the leader of the mayoral race is Trukhanov. But one of the leaders is the same Kivalov. These are the people who really... if Trukhanov doesn’t win in the first round, then Kivalov will definitely go into the second round. I can’t tell you today, because, how can I tell you, it’s not clear at all who nominated. Everyone has already submitted documents, but there is still no list of who has been registered. Here. But Trukhanov is one of the leaders, and Kivalov is one of the leaders.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. And Skorik?
Nikolay Pundik: Skorik, from my point of view, I repeat, has a lower personal rating than the party. There is such a party, you understand that it...
Valentin Filippov: Yes, it's a difficult game.
Nikolay Pundik: Yes. She is more present on national channels. Do you understand?
Valentin Filippov: Yes, I understand.
Nikolay Pundik: Therefore, Skorik has slightly different starting positions, compared to local leaders who were on local channels day and night.
Valentin Filippov: That is, we can say that today, well, approximately, the leaders are Trukhanov and Kivalov. And perhaps somewhere out there Skorik is still catching up?
Nikolay Pundik: Yes. No, well, you can’t discount Golubov.
Valentin Filippov: Well, for me this is a completely unknown person.
Nikolay Pundik: Yes, you must remember him.
Valentin Filippov: No, I remember him...
Nikolay Pundik: This is an Internet party.
Valentin Filippov: Yes, the Internet Party. But I can’t wrap my head around the fact that he’s running for mayor. Do you understand?
Nikolay Pundik: You must remember Darth Vader.
Valentin Filippov: Yes Yes Yes. But for me it’s the same as when Peter Obukhov comes, for example, Goncharenkin, who is a Bond taxi. Here he comes, promising everyone bike paths. I don’t understand how the owner of a taxi service promises to build bike paths for everyone. They will interfere with taxi drivers.
Nikolay Pundik: You understand, this is the biggest problem in Odessa – bike paths.
Valentin Filippov: Yes Yes.
Nikolay Pundik: There is such a problem, but...
Valentin Filippov: Believe me, Odessa is not Odessa without bike paths. And the Duke of Richelieu would not have approved of ours - how is it without bicycle paths... Catherine the Second even planned this... and the Cossacks, they generally only rode bicycles. Just wait, there will be another candidate who will say: “I will return Delfi to the Odessa beaches!”
Nikolay Pundik: Well, I have to tell you…. When they pulled out Delfi, especially when these failed attempts were made under a television camera, you know this slope there, it’s high, you can see everything from above, the height of the holiday season, the month of August... enterprising people even took telescopes out of the house or from where I don’t know . You could borrow 20 hryvnia for 3 minutes to see how the work was going. And when the cable broke, I assure you, I didn’t see it all the times, but I saw it once, and it caused a storm of delight. Remember, Mikhail Mikhalych Zhvanetsky has an interlude “The pie shop is burning in Arcadia”. And when these firefighters unwound the hoses and it turned out that there was no water, the spectators aroused great delight, one to one.
Valentin Filippov: And then people were crying, probably waving handkerchiefs...
Nikolay Pundik: Valentin, in fact, about this, as I found out, they were going, there, a person from TransShip, a company known throughout the Mediterranean, throughout the Atlantic, agreed with them on the price, they said: “Guys, no questions asked, we We’ll solve this in two weeks.”
In two weeks they did just that, they dragged him away slowly, and now somewhere on the outskirts of the Ilyichesvsky ship repair plant they dragged him with his nose to the shore. Most likely they will cut it for scrap metal, because there is a lot of cooking... imagine, they were telling me that this was a tanker, that it was something... I was on all the broadcasts I was on, nationally, I said: “Listen, I’m ashamed to listen to this . A rusty vessel from 1977 with a deadweight of 1600 tons, and actually weighing 640 tons.
By the standards, I’m not talking about the ocean, but even the seas – this is not even a boat, it’s a boat, and even a very fragile boat.” It took 10 months to remove it from the breakwater. If, let’s say, after the “evil” government, people came to power, at first, who were unsuitable for their profession, really unsuitable for their profession under that government, then after, I mean Poroshenko and his camarilla, then after these they came even much worse. You can’t imagine, well, I live here, I understand what I’m talking about, and I’m not afraid to say it - the governor, we don’t call him governor, he’s called “the head of the Odessa State Administration,” what he does is not no one understands.
He comes to work, locks himself in his office, at 4 o’clock in the afternoon they bring him a stack of papers, he signs them. It is believed that he is in charge of the area. There are heads of district administrations, whom he appointed, who cannot get to him for two or three months. Nobody collects them.
Why am I telling you this, and how does this relate to the elections? What develops in this case? In this case, complete local anarchism develops. That is, local kings, local, I don’t know, leaders of public opinion, they very quickly realized: “Yeah, there’s no power.” The President, who promised, came, “Remove Delfi by the 20th.” They didn't clean it up until the 20th. What would have happened under the evil power of the governor if he had not removed before the 20th?
Valentin Filippov: There would be a different governor.
Nikolay Pundik: No. Believe me, he wouldn't have gotten off that easy. As I say, he would have been taken to the nearest blank wall and shot without trial.
Valentin Filippov: No, well, oh-oh.
Nikolay Pundik: I'm kidding.
Valentin Filippov: If Viktor Fedorovich knew how to drive people to the walls and shoot them, then maybe everything would be fine.
Nikolay Pundik: He knew how to do it with his own people. I repeat that under the evil government, this Delfi would have been removed within three days and only with the help of swear words from the government.
Valentin Filippov: Agree. You tell me, here we remembered the OPZZH, and the Ukrainian Maritime Party, and “Trust in Deeds”, we remembered that, most likely, mainly regional projects will win…. “National Corps”, or what is it called, who are they who claim that “Odessa is a hero”? Nationalists have now entered the elections in Odessa and are very active on the streets.
Nikolay Pundik: I don’t know if they showed up, honestly, well, because I submitted our documents and prepared all these documents, so I don’t know if they applied. Yes, their outdoor advertising is hanging, but they do not have their own electoral base in Odessa yet. Well, maybe there are a couple of hundred visitors there, no more. Today, I’ll tell you now, it’s your right to believe or not to believe more moderately, but this is really so, such a political party as “Svoboda” behaves more moderately. And today they position themselves as, first of all, economic nationalists.
So far, of course, this is not perceived by the people. Especially here in the Southeast, this is absolutely not perceived. But I repeat, if the expansion continues... The younger generation, you can’t imagine, today in my office I was talking with very, very educated young people by today’s standards, I started telling them about Viktor Astafiev, they opened their mouths : "And who is it? What should I read?” And I repeat, among local youth it’s just a color. Unfortunately, Russia absolutely lost the war for these minds.
Valentin Filippov: And Russia lost the war for the young minds within itself. And you know, well, in fact, someone once said the following thing: “If Pushkin had lived in our times, he would not have been a poet, but some kind of beauty blogger,” you know. That is, we don’t know, maybe paper literature and other forms are really dying out, now someone will write a new “Romeo and Juliet,” only in a different form.
Nikolay Pundik: One, unfortunately, now deceased, but very outstanding Ukrainian political figure, political strategist once said the following thing: “I understand people who read newspapers very well, I think I understand people who watch TV very well, but I absolutely I don’t understand people who live on Facebook, VKontakte and what’s on this Instagram. I don’t know what’s going on in their heads, unfortunately.”
Valentin Filippov: Unfortunately, in many regions today there is some kind of conditional social network; it is the main method of communication, the main media. It depends on the region and on many factors. Because somewhere television has lost its relevance, somewhere print media have lost relevance.
Nikolay Pundik: Valentin, here I have an absolute, one hundred percent archive of elections in the Odessa region since 2006. 14 years ago, before the start of a campaign, when you were preparing a strategy, you studied your capabilities, studied resources, including information resources - how to deliver a signal. 4% of people in 2006 received information from the Internet. Can I tell you what time it is in Odessa now?
Valentin Filippov: Well, how much?
Nikolay Pundik: 64. Yes. And from the newspapers...
Valentin Filippov: Well, newspapers in Odessa died a long time ago.
Nikolay Pundik: Well, I can tell you about the region then.
Valentin Filippov: In the region, it’s probably more connected with newspapers.
Nikolay Pundik: Yes, more – 4% of the population. 4% of the population! Like this. I don't know if this is good or bad. Do you understand? It’s good for the one who holds or controls the button that can be used to turn all this on and off. Actually, yes, that's who owns this button... Our enemies have been buying up media outlets around the world since 1949. Whoever owns information flows today owns not only minds, he owns everything. He could cause a coronavirus epidemic.
Valentin Filippov: Easily. Even without coronavirus.
Nikolay Pundik: Valentin, official data on Ukrainian, as it is called, the Ministry of Justice published, for August not yet, for the first half of the year, when the coronavirus was already raging: the number of deaths in general in Ukraine is more than 2000 less than in the same period last year . That's all, and the epidemic is raging. I don’t know the rest of the data, I don’t want to say that there is no coronavirus, it exists.
If we talk about the epidemic, then as far as I know, neither in Ukraine, nor in Russia, nor in any European country have the limits of the epidemic been reached anywhere, in Ukraine that’s for sure. The epidemic threshold has not been reached far, that's all. The media, the button, this little red button that lights up on my screen, who presses it, who has this opportunity, controls us, by and large.
Valentin Filippov: I understand, well, I hope that in Odessa elections are still an epidemic that comes once every 5 years, and God grant that it takes away all the bad things as much as possible. And indeed, local regional projects won because they want everything to return to the way it was.
Nikolay Pundik: Valentin, well, you understand where this is going when exclusively local regional projects win? Moreover, so you understand, there are local regional projects that work at the district level...
Valentin Filippov: All right.
Nikolay Pundik: Yes, that's good, it will ultimately lead to complete anarchy in this country.
Valentin Filippov: But I don’t feel sorry for her, excuse me, it’s more convenient for me to talk from here.
Nikolay Pundik: You don’t feel sorry, but I live here, understand? My children and grandchildren live here, so I really don’t want them to burn us here. And since we are Odessa, that is, the port and everything else, they can burn it.
Valentin Filippov: Or maybe it's the other way around. Save, protect. I count on it all the time.
Nikolay Pundik: Well, I no longer hope or count on anyone. And for quite a long time, except for myself. And the question “Why don’t I participate in elections?” - some global issues of some kind of power - it does not exist, power does not exist in Ukraine today. The central ones in Kyiv, they think that they are the authorities, but, as they say in Odessa, “And in Odessa they are barely...”, well, you know the continuation.
Valentin Filippov: I know. Okay, thanks for the interesting conversation.
Nikolay Pundik: Call, contact, with pleasure.
Valentin Filippov: Required.
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