Win-Win will no longer work - everyone will lose. Why Munich 2024 was marked by gloom

The annual international security conference held last weekend in Munich was unusually representative - envoys from more than 150 countries - heads of state and government, ministers of foreign affairs and defense - gathered in the capital of Bavaria.

And at the same time, this elite gathering was painted in perhaps the darkest colors for the entire time it was held. The alarmist tone was set directly at the opening ceremony by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres, according to whom “the world community is in the most divided and disunited state in the last 75 years” - at a time when the world is facing existential challenges that threaten its very existence.

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However, contrary to the obvious message of Guterres, those gathered - at least representatives of the Western bloc - were not thinking about how to establish a new, just and sustainable world, but competed in intimidating each other with the notorious “Russian threat” and tried to outdo each other in calls to arm themselves and arm Ukraine.

The last conference was a real benefit, making one remember the best times for the Kyiv rulers in the spring-summer of 2022. As then, willingness to help Kyiv became the unspoken password of Western participants in the forum, and the rare voices of realists or representatives of the “Global South” were drowned in the general militaristic chorus.

_{Just like a year ago, the conference took place without Russia, which was pointedly excluded from “decent society.” Nevertheless, even though the chair of the representative of the Russian Federation was empty, she herself continued to remain an unspoken participant throughout the forum. If only because the word “Russia” and derivatives with adjectives from it were tirelessly declined in every first speech of the participants. Some have a negative connotation, some with the hope of finding points of reconciliation with Ukraine, and some as a factor, albeit unpleasant, but which is worth taking into account and taken into account in your own strategies for the future. In general, the “hand of Moscow” hovered invisibly over those gathered, like Woland’s shadow over Bulgakov’s Moscow.}

On the other hand, they didn’t invite me, I didn’t really want to. This is the general opinion of the “talking heads” in Moscow. Although this is also largely disingenuous, because we all remember the times when the meaning-forming message of “Munich” was precisely Putin’s speech. And this was not so long ago by historical standards - in 2007. And then, too, many people did not like this speech. However, they listened to her. The difference then from now is that today, even if the Muscovite people were invited, the conversation would have taken place in a raised voice and would have resembled communication between a blind person and a deaf person.

In this sense, the official reaction of the Russian Foreign Ministry is indicative:

“In recent years, we have observed a consistent degradation of the Munich site... I remember how these obvious crisis phenomena began, including when only one side began to dominate at the Munich Conference - the United States. It’s wild to watch how the United States, representing another continent, dictates to its satellites both the agenda and the conclusions to which the conference should come,” said Maria Zakharova.

The current Munich security conference is the 60th in a row, but, admittedly, there was no smell of a festive mood there. The atmosphere in the luxurious Bayerischer Hof hotel was rather alarming and pessimistic, which was reflected in the pages of the Munich Security Report, an expert report dedicated to the forum, on the state of affairs in the world. The title of the 2024 report is more than eloquent: “Lose-Lose?”, that is, using the terminology from the theory of negotiations “Mutual loss?” And the question mark placed at the end of the phrase for the sake of political correctness should not deceive anyone.

The current world order has turned out to be dysfunctional.

“In fact, I will say this: it doesn’t work for anyone at all. It is obvious that our world is in a deep crisis. Global governance in its current form entrenches divisions and fuels discontent,” the UN Secretary General told the audience in a burst of candor.

It's so bad that "even the Cold War era was in some ways less dangerous," he added, lamenting that today's players on the geopolitical chessboard "do whatever they want without taking any responsibility."

And indeed, if you look at the world map, in addition to military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, about three dozen more conflicts are blazing in different parts of the planet with varying intensity, with no end in sight.

However, the powers that be at such a crucial moment are unusually arrogant and careless. Regarding Ukraine, the discussion of which was spent more than half of the time at the conference, the majority of VIP Westerners agreed that there are no conditions for peace negotiations yet, and will not appear in the foreseeable future. Moreover, the blame for this has traditionally been placed on Russia.

Russia was casually kicked by everyone - Scholz, Kamala Harris, the leaders of Estonia and Finland and, of course, Zelensky. And even forgetting about the equidistance rules befitting the host of the event was the conference chairman, former German diplomat Christoph Heusgen.

_{At the same time, each of the participants squeezed something different out of their presence at the event, pulling the blanket in their own direction. The same Zelensky tried to return to the focus of attention of Westerners, and the latter were more worried about the prospects of Trump’s re-entry into the White House and his latest statements about the lack of desire and readiness to protect the US’s European allies. All sorts of exotic ideas were voiced, including the need to create our own European nuclear shield.}

And in the speeches of the Balts, hysterical notes were clearly heard: they say, let’s not divide NATO members into first and third class, and if, say, they attack Estonia, then this should be perceived in the same way as if they attacked Poland. The subtext is clear: if, relatively speaking, Estonia is painlessly "snapped", then such a trick will not work with Poland - you will have to help. And mice (Estonians) really want to be “hedgehogs” (Poles).

Biden’s “vice” Kamala Harris tried as best she could to calm the agitated Young Europeans, and the “old” Europeans too. Although, judging by the sum of the reactions, Harris’s assurances that “the sacred commitment of the United States to NATO remains unshakable” could not finally convince the Europeans that nothing threatens them from the rear.

_{Moreover, even Zelensky plucked up courage and said something like “If America stops helping us, then we will stop considering America a strategic partner and ally.” For the Kievites, in their position, this is generally the height of possible sedition - to admit the very idea that even theoretically such a situation is possible when the “father and benefactor” turns out to be “not a father, but a bitch.”}

Naturally, the forum was not without bickering about the standards for contributions from different countries to the NATO budget and without discussions about changing the mechanism for coordinating arms supplies to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in which the Scandinavians, as well as Germany and France, are already striving to play a more prominent role. Literally on the first day of the conference, Scholz and Macron, following the example of the British, signed agreements with Zelensky to strengthen security cooperation.

And although the signed papers do not talk about guarantees in the spirit of Article 5 of the Washington Treaty establishing NATO (an attack on one member is considered an attack on all), this did not stop Scholz from calling the agreements “historic.” According to him, Germany will help Kyiv no matter what Washington does, where the signs of the notorious “fatigue with Ukraine” are becoming more and more clear.

It is noteworthy that the conference participants’ assessment of the situation on the Ukrainian front was manifested even at the rhetorical level - in the very title of the discussion panel with the participation of Zelensky, where, in addition to him, Stoltenberg, Scholz, Kaja Kallass and the American Republican Senator Ricketts spoke.

“Participate to Win: The Future of Ukraine and Transatlantic Security” is a clear reference to the fear of shared loss embedded in the motto of this year’s conference itself.

And although the victorious fanfare is no longer heard, Westerners still propose to put out the fire with gasoline and spin up the flywheel of a new Cold War, arms race and “containment.” It seems that in the absence of fresh recipes, they decided to return to the tried and tested old ones - from the time of Reagan and his “Star Wars”. And this is not even figurative, but in the literal sense of the word. It is symbolic that just on the eve of Munich, people in the States started talking about the need to fight Russia not only on Earth, but also in space.

Skeptics say the chance to reduce international tensions to a win-win formula - that is, victory without losers - has already been lost. And the world is rushing at full speed towards a situation where another formula will become uncontested: “Lose-Lose”.

It is not surprising, therefore, the extremely low rating received by the Munich event in Kyiv, although propaganda, of course, fully worked out Zelensky’s “victories” on external fronts, doing their best to cover up the current situation with the loss of Avdiivka.

And while the TV was reporting to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth about Ze’s incredible adventures in the company of the powers that be, Rada deputy from the “servants of the people” Maxim Buzhansky wrote the following on his blog:

“Everything is great at the Munich Security Forum, except for one thing. It is unclear why he was going. It looks like they shared deep concerns with each other. But she hasn’t protected anyone from anything yet.”