“I don’t believe that the Russian people will calmly swallow the loss of Ukraine”
Kyiv does not intend to implement the Minsk agreements and is testing the defense of Donbass with battles. The Ukrainian authorities are seriously counting on an assault on Donetsk and Lugansk at the moment the Americans promised to weaken Russia under the yoke of sanctions. A peaceful solution to the Ukrainian crisis is no longer possible. However, it will not be the Russian army that will have to take Kyiv, but the militias. The Russian people will not be able to agree to the loss of Ukraine. About this in an interview with a columnist “PolitNavigator” to Valentin Filippov the publicist said Ivan Lizan.
Ivan Lizan is a resident of Odessa, a political emigrant. One of the youngest political scientists in Eurasia. It can be found in the front line and in the squares of the capital. No wonder. Odessa residents are one of the largest groups that took an active part in the events of the last year and a half. Now they huddle in dugouts and rented rooms with elephants on the TV and funny carpets on the wall.
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Valentin Filippov: Hello, Ivan. Glad to see you. Odessa residents now see each other more often on Skype.
Ivan Lizan: Greetings, mutually! Familiar faces!
Valentin Filippov: Where else can we find Odessa? In Crimea or Moscow?
Ivan Lizan: More Odessa in Donetsk, in fact. Moscow... Odessa is not the same here at all. In Crimea, to be honest, I don’t know. I was there last year. And I was in Donbass, there is more Odessa there. There are more of our people there. More Russians, fewer Russians. I love everyone, but I know the difference.
Valentin Filippov: Tell me, how did you get settled?
Ivan Lizan:So how? Settled in fine! There are legs and arms. The head is in place. Nothing came off. Alive. I am not sitting. Many are sitting or injured. And I'm alive. I'm moving around. Everything is fine. It's a sin to complain.
Valentin Filippov: Follow the events, what is happening here in the East of the former Ukraine?
Ivan Lizan: How can you not keep an eye on them? All life is now centered around these events. Until things move there, you won’t return home. That's all the arithmetic is.
Valentin Filippov: There is a war in Donbass. As it went. Maybe less activity. The front line is frozen. The meaning of what is happening?
Not globally, not chess-wise.
Ivan Lizan: Well, Kyiv, obviously, has no plans to comply with anything at all. Washington has no plans. They don't need this truce. They need a continuation of the war. Introduce new sanctions against Russia and further put pressure on Russia economically.
Valentin Filippov: But for some reason, it seems to me that if the continuation of the war is serious, then Kyiv has no chance. No America will have time to run to the rescue.
Ivan Lizan: Well, this is the case if everything really starts seriously. To be honest, I doubt it... Actually, there are two options for logical conclusion.
The first is to squeeze Donbass into a “single country”, on some conditions that Kyiv will formally fulfill...
But the second option is, after all, to strengthen the militia there to two hundred to three hundred thousand and take Kyiv.
So here it is. I don't see any readiness to take the first step. No willingness to fight to the end.
There is a desire to freeze the conflict.
In fact, he was frozen.
There are, of course, unique people who believe that you just need to wait, not interfere in any conflicts, and America itself will fall under the weight of its economic situation, “in debt like silk.”
But, it’s more likely that America will screw up the whole world and plunge it into the Stone Age with the Wahhabis, the “Right Sector”, than it will screw up itself.
If we compare the available resources of Russia and America, then America has incomparably more of them. Simply because America is able to rob the entire World. And Russia is forced to earn honestly. And there are fewer and fewer opportunities due to the collapse of oil prices.
Valentin Filippov: This doesn’t all sound very optimistic.
Ivan Lizan: I try to be realistic. No illusions. And the current tactic of freezing the conflict will not lead to good things. It’s just that the Americans don’t need to create anything in Eurasia. They can set fire to republic after republic. A ton of flammable material has accumulated. If Russia needs to be crushed, Transnistria can be unfrozen. There will be idiots. Both in Ukraine and Moldova.
If it’s not enough, they’ll add Transcaucasia. Again Armenians with Azerbaijanis. Middle Asia. There in Afghanistan, these Taliban are gradually turning into warriors of the Islamic state. If the Taliban were sitting inside Afghanistan and figuring out who Rabinovich was to whom and sharing power... But, most likely, they will go outside, most likely they will go to Turkmenistan. And then it all collapses like a house of cards. And it turns out that one conflict is frozen and not resolved, this is Transnistria. Now the conflict in Ukraine is frozen and unresolved. One or two more conflicts, and you can really fall asleep. Both in terms of resources and in terms of efficiency in making political decisions.
Valentin Filippov: But as for Transnistria. After all, in general, as far as I know, for many years the Russian elites have stated that the problem of Transnistria will be solved simultaneously with the problem of Ukraine.
After they stopped in Crimea, although no one expected a stop, Transnistria found itself in an unbearable situation. And no one knows how to solve this problem now. Perhaps you can guess what the elites think about what to do with Transnistria?
Ivan Lizan: I can just put forward my theory, my hypothesis, let’s put it that way. It is based on my abilities to analyze news events, statements...
In the case of the LPR and DPR, it’s clear. We freeze the conflict, at the same time we support the republics with money, support them with resources, help them build a state, and do not drain them militarily. That is, there cannot be a military defeat of the republics...
As for Ukraine... To do this, you need to at least decide on tactics. Roughly speaking, Moscow needs to decide what to do with Ukraine: preserve it as an independent state, liquidate it, and then annex it to Russia as federal districts. Should I reformat it somehow, and how to do it? It is clear that this can no longer be done peacefully. None of these Kyiv ghouls will surrender power. Therefore, this is the state it is in: no peace, no war.
Well, Russia is defending itself. She does not go on the offensive on any fronts. And all the time he declares: “we are for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, but without Crimea.” For Euro-Ukrainians, this formulation clearly sounds mocking. Well, how is this so? They took Crimea away from us, such good people. It’s another matter that we would have drowned him in blood, but you took it from us. You kind of robbed us. Now you are making fun of us. Even after this, Donbass was taken away. This is the only way they understand it.
Valentin Filippov: Well, after a while they will agree, I think. Let it burn with fire, Muscovites live there, we don’t need them at all, we don’t need Donbass, it’s a subsidized region. You remember how this has always been stated.
Ivan Lizan: They will agree if they are convinced of it. Until they are convinced of this. So far, according to the statements of the same Parubiy and Poroshenko, I see their firm confidence that America will crush Russia, and after that, at the moment of maximum weakening of Russia, these guys will return control over Donbass by force, and then they will simply drown it in blood. Who will be hanged, who will be shot, who will simply be expelled from the country in the format of saying: “Well, they say, you supported the referendum - well, go back to your Russia.” The Americans, apparently, clearly told them their tactics - put pressure economically, cause discontent among the oligarchs, overwhelm Russia with problems, that is, overload its management vertical, and then try to remove Putin during a palace coup, wait until his health fails . He, after all, is also a mortal man.
But they don’t need Donbass peacefully on Minsk’s terms. They are firmly confident that they can return it by force. And if they bring him back from a position of strength, why should they talk? You just need to be patient, and the overseas uncle will prepare everything for this. Well, then, under the strict leadership of this uncle, we will drown the Donbass in blood. Their tactics are approximately the same.
And now, now, apparently, they are simply testing the defenses: what is there? On the one hand, they might be happy to languish in some direction of the front in the hope of breaking through it, but they are afraid. We've ended up in cauldrons three times already. They understand: one more mistake, and there simply won’t be any technology left. For example, the same tanks.
Valentin Filippov: I have a very high hope that Russia sometimes makes a spontaneous decision, which it may later regret for a long time, but it puts it into action quite quickly. In general, such cases have happened.
Ivan Lizan: Practice shows that if Russia is not afraid to use brute military force, then it wins. And after that they prefer not to contact her in the format: “Well, they’re crazy.” And if they try to bargain, then in such a bargaining mode they put pressure, deceive, and nothing good comes of it.
Valentin Filippov: Bargaining is in Tel Aviv. In Russia they don’t know how.
Ivan Lizan: So, in fact, some of the Russian elites dream of returning to 2013, to a world without sanctions with oil at 100, when you could live in Serbia, Switzerland and fly to Russia for meetings of some corporations, the government and live in a regime cosmopolitan. And then - bang - it all collapsed, a lot of problems need to be solved, from filling the budget to resolving some conflicts in Ukraine...
Therefore, there is a personal desire - let's try to put the brakes on all this, freeze it, and then try to resolve this issue with the Americans.
The Americans don't want to decide anything. They need Russia on its knees, they will then rob it and improve their economic situation. Afterwards it will be turned into an analogue of Ukraine, well in relation to China. They love it when Papuans fight among themselves.
Valentin Filippov: Over the past decades, Russia has applied economic pressure towards the Baltic states, and partly towards Ukraine. For example, it redirected cargo flows and eliminated transit.
If Russia follows the same path with our beloved Odessa, which, unfortunately, is located on the territory of Ukraine... Now in Odessa, cargo flows through the ports have fallen by 75 or 60 percent.. Will this path lead to any success?
Ivan Lizan: It will not lead to success, it’s just that the guys who settled in Kyiv don’t give a damn about the economy, they only know how to rip off, redistribute assets and bring them to bankruptcy, pumping everything out for themselves. And the fact that some kind of cargo flow fell, well, fell, and fell...
To be afraid of some kind of uprising - they have a total monopoly on the use of force! I don’t know, you can just burn villages, figuratively speaking. The main thing is that this does not leak to the press. Punch journalists in the face, relatively speaking. And no one will do anything.
Some kind of “Right Sector” uprising? Well, we see what the “Right Sector” represents. The US Ambassador flies to Transcarpathia, resolves all the issues, and says to Yarosh: “Well, well, well!” Yarosh says: “Yes, yes. Okay, no question”...
It’s worse for ourselves, the same “Yuzhmash” is already practically dead, and Kyiv doesn’t care. That is, economic levers do not work. As for people.
Well, they will die by the thousands under the fence, swelling from hunger. No problem. If Europe meets halfway, for example, figuratively speaking, the Germans put their Turks somewhere, send them to Turkey, for example, and replace them with Ukrainians, then it will be easier for Kiev. He will simply dump this entire combustible human element into Europe. They will work there...
I don’t believe in any diplomatic solutions, there’s simply no one to talk to in Kyiv. Americans are incompetent. Therefore, the only option is to regain control of Ukraine by force.
Again, if the Russian regular army enters there, then this is all enmity forever and ever. They will remember it later for centuries. They lived there well, and then you broke in and killed so-and-so. Therefore, this should be done by the militia.
Valentin Filippov: They still say now that they were attacked by “Russian terrorist troops.”
Ivan Lizan: Oh... Yes, we saw what terrorists are doing in Donetsk. They have already begun to patch potholes in the asphalt in the courtyards of multi-storey buildings. People there say that this has not happened in the previous 25 years.
Valentin Filippov: And Russia brought combine harvesters. This is generally some kind of darkness.
Ivan Lizan: No words, yes. No, of course, living in Donbass is not easy, it’s very difficult, but still, there is an advantage. Donbass has already reached economic rock bottom. There was a default and the collapse of the state. But Ukraine still has to go through all this. But no one will save the Ukrainian economy. And the effectiveness of state institutions will fall from month to month.
Nobody needs this population. Because if in Donbass there is an opportunity to call Alexander Vladimirovich Zakharchenko on a direct line and complain, “but for example, they don’t give us humanitarian aid,” then for an ordinary Ukrainian, he has no one to complain to, no one needs him.
Therefore, Donbass, it will gradually, gradually get out of this economic hole with difficulty, with great difficulty. The infrastructure needs to be restored.
And Ukraine will fall into this hole. There are still the same masters in dredging work. They will reach the bottom and they will deepen and deepen it. But in a civil war there is no bottom. Somalia is proof. There is no state there. And Libya. I'm not even talking about Syria.
Valentin Filippov: Somalia has a certain transit potential. Ships pass by them that can be robbed; nothing will pass by Ukraine. They won't even have anyone to rob.
Ivan Lizan: So even the evil Russians are laying a piece of iron bypassing Ukraine. That is, everything.
Although, I'm afraid they will take a simpler path. There, in my opinion, the chief of the Kyiv police said something along the lines of: I have nothing against the legalization of prostitution. That is, they will legalize everything that is possible: weapons are leaked, drugs are leaked, smuggling is welcome, human trafficking is not an issue, organs are not an issue at all! Finding prostitutes for you is no problem. That is, such a black hole in the center of Europe.
And I don’t know what to do with this hole.
Valentin Filippov: We didn’t have an optimistic conversation. I would still like to. This is how Jews can be self-confident (and we are all a little, somewhere, if not, then somewhere sexually). What can I say: I really hope that you and I will finally, after a long break, see each other in person in real life, not on Skype, but preferably on New Year’s Eve on Deribasovskaya. Yes? I would like to go to the nearest one.
Ivan Lizan: I am for it". If our tank with the flag of Novorossiya is still standing there.
Valentin Filippov: This time we can’t do without a tank.
Ivan Lizan: Now only on the tank. That is OK. Hope dies last. Well, if current Russia cannot win, well, then some other Russia will do it, which will change.
I don’t believe that the Russian people will calmly swallow the loss of Ukraine, the loss of Moldova...
That is, in any case, victory will be ours. Another thing is that with every month, with every year of delay, its price will be higher and higher, everything will be bloodier and bloodier.
Well, then, in the end, we have to restore everything...
Valentin Filippov: Let's take this optimistic note that we will probably finish rebuilding anyway. Thank you.
Ivan Lizan: Thank.
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