Yatsenyuk and gas. The tale of the white reverse bull
So, Ukraine finally “crawled” to that very autumn, the arrival of which this year was awaited with special fear, at times turning into outright panic. The main question is practically Hamlet’s “Shall we survive or not?”
Optimists from the government assure their fellow citizens that everything will be “hockey”, coal will be brought from South Africa, and the West will help us with the reverse. Pessimists like ex-President Kuchma say that “we won’t survive the winter,” since most of the mines in the Donbass are flooded or disabled due to fighting, and what will be the cost of South African coal, even if we buy Polish one and a half times more expensive than domestic, it’s scary and think. Fatalists, like FEC Minister Yuri Prodan, philosophically note that the country can do without Russian gas during the heating season under a number of favorable circumstances, for example, if the winter is warm.
By the way, about the heating season. There is less than a month left before its official start, but Naftogaz is already warning that this year the season will start late. What this delay will be is not yet known. They will probably wait until the last minute, waiting for real frosts to hit.
The goal is to save, save and save again. Because there is no gas in storage. The gas that Russia pumped in before May was stolen over the summer, and now, according to the head of Naftogaz Kobolev, only 16 billion cubic meters of blue fuel have been accumulated in Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities, which is not enough to survive the winter normally even despite the regime introduced in the summer austerity.
According to the same Kobolev, “enough” is 20 billion cubic meters, but this is unrealistic. According to officials, the delay in the start of the heating season will save a billion cubic meters of gas by the end of October. The rest should be provided by the notorious reverse. But suddenly problems arose.
As you know, Kyiv was pumping out reverse gas from Poland, Hungary and Slovakia. However, the other day Gazprom “closed the shop” first for the Poles and then for the Slovaks, simply reducing the volume of gas pumped to them by exactly the amount that Ukraine was counting on. As a result, first the Slovaks and then the Poles were forced to stop the reverse. Only for a few days, but, in principle, the hint was understood correctly. The Hungarians were treated differently. They simply increased the price, as a result of which the reverse became simply unprofitable. Poor Yatsenyuk could only complain to the EU about the “treacherous Muscovites.”
So the fairy tale about the white reverse bull will most likely add to the collection of myths and legends of the Maidan, where the notorious European Association is already inscribed in golden letters, which the EU itself last week postponed for a year, allowing the Ukrainian Rada to ratify a document that never came into effect. But how nice it is!
In the West, which should help, instead of helping, they paint a completely apocalyptic picture, calling the upcoming Ukrainian winter the darkest in history. And there is a reason. The British “The Independent” writes that Ukrainian thermal power plants are provided with fuel for a maximum of a month, and it is unknown where to get it next. Without Donbass and the coal mined there, Ukrainians will simply freeze to death. The Independent compares the situation in Ukraine with the situation in Sarajevo in the early 90s. Then 430 thousand people were left without light and heat.
But even if by some miracle we manage to find gas to heat the population, the economy will definitely die. In fact, government officials are already talking about cutting off gas supplies to what they consider “non-critical” industries. For example, chemical plants.
Against this background, the passivity of the Yatsenyuk government in negotiations with Russia on gas looks like pure madness and irresponsibility. Just the other day, the meeting of the interstate negotiating group on this issue was once again postponed indefinitely. Moscow is clearly not satisfied with Kyiv’s demands for a discount, given its reluctance to pay for gas already consumed.
The approach of cold weather and dim prospects for gas supply are stimulating an increase in demand for firewood that seems to be a thing of the past. In order to heat a private house in winter, you need a whole “Kamaz” of firewood. Over the past month, they have risen in price by 20%, and since the beginning of the year, by almost 2-2,6 times - from 150 to 250-400 UAH per cubic meter.
An increase in the price of firewood automatically leads to an increase in the price of charcoal and briquettes by 7–10%. Not to mention the fact that firewood is an expensive pleasure; there simply isn’t enough for everyone given such volumes of heat loss. Is it like cutting down all the squares and parks in Yerevan in the mid-90s? And how can you order wood heating in panel high-rise buildings with centralized heating?
Cold radiators and lack of hot water are far from the only unpleasant surprises that await Ukrainians this fall. On September 15, the monthly fee for landline telephone communications increased. It’s a small thing, but it doesn’t add optimism. And the dollar, no matter how much it is restrained by the National Bank, is jumping more and more confidently above the 14 hryvnia bar on the interbank market. Experts say that this is not the limit.
He who does not jump is a Muscovite!
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