Yatsenyuk brought down the Ukrainian economy to a record level: Worse than in Moldova and Albania
The results of the “radical reforms” announced by Arseniy Yatsenyuk after the Maidan caused a record collapse of the Ukrainian economy, economist Andrei Blinov said at a press conference in Kyiv.
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“On February 27, 2014, from the parliamentary rostrum, the new prime minister announced that Ukraine was embarking on a new stage of radical economic reforms. This event will turn 1,5 years old in a few days. As world practice shows, the period of the most effective reforms ranges from 12 to 18 months. For example, Baltserovich's reforms in Poland went very quickly for 9 months, then another 6 months with a spoke in the wheels, then Baltserovich was very rudely sent into oblivion for many years.
Therefore, it is very important to take stock of these reforms now. Let me give you one non-economic figure: today Kyiv does not control 7,3% of its territory, including Crimea and the so-called. DPR and LPR.
Ukraine's GDP is now estimated at $90 billion, which is exactly half what it was in foreign currency equivalent at the end of 2013, when it was $180 billion. Many of our problems, in particular with the national debt, come from here. Our debt has increased not so much as the denominator in relation to GDP.
Inflation is now 55% per annum; by the end of the year it will be about 50%. The nature of such inflation is destructive. The NBU is right when it says that with such inflation it is impossible to conduct serious investment and innovation processes. If the deposit rate is 25-27% per year, then this does not cover the inflation rate. The current inflation allows those who can buy something for subsequent resale to earn money. This is said to be related to the suspension of the sale of the Odessa Port Plant, since some people in the government receive very good rent from the difference in gas and ammonia prices.
The official salary is approximately 160 euros. This is lower than in Moldova and Albania, which have been outsiders in Europe for 10 years. According to unofficial estimates, in large cities the salary level is approximately twice as high as officially declared. But even if this is so, we are still in third place in Europe, which we occupied before.
Consumer sentiment, according to Gfk Ukraine, is 40-50 points, which indicates that only a quarter of the population expects at least some improvement in their financial situation in the next 12 months. ¾ of the population still looks to the future with pessimism.
Retail turnover is falling by 26% per year.
Passenger car sales fell sharply. Last year we managed to sell 92 thousand new cars. This year, for the first time since the beginning of the 2000s, less than 50 thousand passenger cars will be sold, including new Toyotas, funds for which have been raised through the Kyoto Protocol. This is the absolute minimum over the past 15 years. This means a rapid aging of the vehicle fleet, as in the 90s, when 10-15 thousand dollars was a lot for the average consumer class.
From 2014 to August 1, 2015, 78 billion UAH were withdrawn from hryvnia deposits, and $13 billion from foreign currency deposits. The outflow of deposits in hryvnia has now stopped, and if there are no new bank failures, this situation will most likely be fixed.
The situation in the currency has not changed. Over the past 21 months, there has not been a single month when there was an influx of money in foreign currency. Due to the fact that you can withdraw no more than 15 thousand UAH in foreign currency equivalent, the population does not really believe it and continues to withdraw deposits.
According to the State Statistics Committee, the ratio of investment to GDP is 14%. For individual countries, such as China, Vietnam, in a certain period of the USSR and some oil-producing countries, this figure for a long time significantly exceeded 30%.
As a rule, countries that made economic breakthroughs saw a large jump in investment. And now our figure is one of the lowest in all the years of independence. There is very little investment in the country.
There is also very little lending. Enterprises say that they are trying to invest using their own funds, but it is clear that inflation is greatly eroding working capital.
Over 18 months, the NBU financed the economy by UAH 220 billion. This is the shadow emission that has been talked about so much. Last year, this figure was accelerated by Naftogaz, which received investments, sold from the NBU and bought foreign currency, mainly from reserves. This year, the initiative was taken over by the Individual Deposit Guarantee Fund. This is a plus for the exchange rate, because the Fund requires funds in hryvnia, since it pays compensation in hryvnia.
Monthly coal production is about 2 million tons. The Ukrainian SSR produced so little coal in 1944, after Donbass was liberated from the Germans. Since then there has not been a year when coal production was so low.
Last year, Ilovaisk happened; production in the Donbass fell sharply to 2,3 million tons. It seemed that this was the bare minimum, but in March and June of this year it amounted to 1,9 million tons,” the expert listed.
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