Nuclear club for Erdogan
On September 4, speaking at an economic forum in the city of Sivas (before the start of the Armenian genocide, it was called Sebastia), Turkish President Erdogan made a small, abstractly fleeting statement, which nevertheless became resonant.
Erdogan complained that he considers unacceptable a situation in which Turkey and other developing countries do not have the right to join the “nuclear club.” However, he did not clarify whether Turkey actually plans to acquire or develop its own nuclear weapons technology.
The piquancy of the situation lies in the fact that Turkey has not only been a member of the NATO military bloc since 1952, but also bears certain obligations, having signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons in 1980, and in 1996 the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, about which Erdogan modestly remained silent in his speech.
Erdogan cited the presence of one in Israel as an argument in favor of Ankara acquiring nuclear status. True, the Turkish president, again, kept silent about the fact that Israel has never signed restrictive or prohibitive treaties, while neither denying nor officially denying the development and presence of an arsenal of nuclear weapons.
In parentheses, we note that the presence of nuclear weapons in Israel is a long-standing open secret. A solid scientific and industrial base, a reserve of personnel, underground assistance from the Americans and cooperation with other states interested in the development and production of nuclear weapons helped the Israeli leadership create its own industry and an arsenal of special warheads. The subject of discussion is the number of nuclear warheads in the hands of the Jewish state and their power.
It is interesting that the Americans, who are so fond of harping on the topic of “sold” or “stolen nuclear weapons from the Russians” in the press and cinema, at one time tried to cover up the scandal with the disappearance of almost a ton of weapons-grade uranium from an American plant in Pennsylvania, stolen and transported to Israel . Tel Aviv also officially recognized the illegal acquisition and export from the United States in the early 1980s of high-speed tube switches and krytrons, necessary in the design of nuclear charge detonators.
krytrons
The case of physicist Mordechai Vanunu, a former employee of the Israeli nuclear center in Dimona, kidnapped by the Mossad in Italy in 1986 and sentenced to 18 years in prison for disclosing information about the Israeli atomic project for military purposes, finally dotted the i’s.
Israeli Nuclear Research Center in Dimona
In addition to Israel, Erdogan refers to communication with a certain retired leader of “a developing country,” who allegedly told him about the national arsenal of 7,5 thousand nuclear warheads, ready to increase them to 12–15 thousand, “like Russia and the United States,” but at who did not forget to remind the Turkish president that Ankara does not have the right to its own nuclear weapons.
The statement is strange, to say the least. With the exception of Russia and the United States, the remaining members of the “nuclear club” have much more modest arsenals of doomsday weapons. Thus, France and China have 300 and 280 nuclear warheads, respectively. Pakistan, which is apparently in question, has a nuclear arsenal estimated at 120–130 warheads. 7500 “loaves” is such an awl that you can’t hide it in any bag. Can not be.
Apparently, in order to calm public opinion, Erdogan said that his country is capable of ensuring its security even without nuclear weapons, again recalling Turkey’s possession of the latest S-400 air defense systems, purchased from Russia despite US pressure. And if necessary, they say, we’ll even delay the purchase of a batch of Su-57...
Apparently, this statement contains the key to the provocative speeches of the Turkish president. As military experts note, Turkey practically does not need either the S-400 or the Su-57. The Turkish army is the strongest in the region; it has no one to defend against. Erdogan needs to demonstrate his importance and independence, first of all, in the face of the United States and the EU, in order to make them more accommodating.
For example, Turkey’s membership in Euro-Atlantic structures does not provide it with guarantees against American interference in its domestic politics, as evidenced by the 2016 coup attempt and Washington’s obvious reluctance to hand over to Ankara the conspirators hiding in the territory of the “Hegemon.”
Another painful problem for Turkey is the support of the US military and intelligence services for the Kurdish militia in Syria. Perhaps, Erdogan believes, nuclear blackmail will help him get from the United States everything that he cannot get by other methods.
As for the EU, the main problem in Ankara’s relationship with this structure is the stubborn reluctance of the “tolerants” to accept Turkey into their ranks. The integration process cannot be helped either by the large Turkish diaspora in Germany and other European countries, or even by the well-understood fact of the “tolerants” that the valve that opens and stops the influx of Muslim migrants into the EU is in the hands of Erdogan.
One can only guess what a nightmare the news about Ankara’s nuclear ambitions could be for Europe. If, of course, Erdogan manages to convince all interested parties of this.
It seems that the hint of a conversation on a near-nuclear topic with a representative of Islamabad is not accidental: someone may fall for the version that the only Islamic country possessing nuclear weapons and means of delivering them, Pakistan, can share the relevant knowledge and technology with the Turks in a brotherly manner. Turkey, I suppose, has industry, personnel and economy quite capable of supporting a national nuclear project.
However, no. It’s no secret that in Turkey there is not even a hint of a nuclear industry, and even in the IAEA it is not on the list of threshold states creeping towards creating their own “Kuzka mother”.
Experts call Ankara’s nuclear ambitions a bluff, if only because the first Turkish nuclear power plant, Akkuyu, is being built by specialists from Russia. The Turkish nuclear power plant will operate on Russian nuclear fuel, and the spent fuel is required by agreement to be exported to Russia for its subsequent processing and disposal.
Turkish nuclear power plant Akkuyu project
That is, the Turks will be able to operate their nuclear power plant, but will not have access to fissile materials. Not to mention the fact that the signed agreements represent a serious obstacle to Erdogan’s path to nuclear greatness, should he actually have one.
By the way, it is surprising that Turkey still does not have its own nuclear project, with the exception of the construction of a nuclear power plant, despite the fact that specialists from this country at one time (since 1993) received specialized education in Russia (MEPhI) and China.
On the other hand, as the example of Pakistan shows, the possession of nuclear weapons has not led to an explosive growth in the influence of this state even in the Islamic world. The leaders of Muslims, both Sunnis and Shiites, are traditionally “gas stations” with a non-nuclear status, while nuclear weapons for the state are, first of all, increased control and responsibility.
Pakistan has never been able to resolve the problem of the Jammu and Kashmir territories disputed with India, although, of course, the presence of a nuclear arsenal and modern delivery systems forces anyone to take this country into account.
However, within NATO, Turkey is a nuclear power, as its Incirlik Air Force Base stores 50 B61 nuclear bombs. According to experts citing intelligence data, talk that the NATO command has moved some of these special warheads to Romania is unfounded.
B61 nuclear bomb
Another thing is that Erdogan’s hands are too short to grab and use this nuclear baton at his discretion, because it is guarded and only the American military has access to it.
Incirlik Air Base
Thus, it turns out that Ankara can have nuclear ambitions only in the hypothetical case of a complete break with the United States and NATO.
And if this happens and ambitions appear, Turkey will experience the full brunt of international sanctions, just as Iran and North Korea experience them.
Iranian nuclear program
In general, “the beloved city can sleep peacefully”: the world is unlikely to ever see with its own eyes the heartbreaking sight of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, belligerently waving his “Kuzka’s mother.”
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