Julia and Petya, we really count on you: Eat each other
The situation on the eve of the presidential elections is extremely alarming for Ukraine: Yulia Tymoshenko is almost on a par with Petro Poroshenko, none of the rivals will be ready to admit defeat.
Sociologist Evgeny Kopatko stated this during a press conference, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“What is the balance of power there? Zelensky is about thirty or over thirty - these are different data...
The relationship between Tymoshenko and Poroshenko: they are on par... At the level of statistical error. What does it mean? That 2-3% does not matter, and when they tell me 12 and 14 percent, I answer that these are approximately equal positions. Moreover, among those who definitely vote, Tymoshenko’s figure is slightly higher...
Further, Yuriy Boyko and Anatoly Gritsenko may have surprises - there are options here.
But I want to tell you that, in principle, the trend now is this: there is a trio, and it is Poroshenko and Tymoshenko who will fanatically fight for second place. Moreover, I want to say: the way Poroshenko works, I have been studying sociology for more than 30 years and have never seen anyone work so fanatically. Because his fate is political and, perhaps, his life is at stake, at stake. Therefore, he entered the election campaign with a very unfavorable third position, and so far this role has not changed,” Kopatko said.
According to him, the final figures may change, since during opinion polls many of the Ukrainian residents who are critical of the authorities deviate from answering the question of who they will support in the elections.
“Now for the procedure. I wanted to draw your attention to this. Most people will vote before 16 p.m. You know, from 8 to 16. And just so you understand, if based on turnout they say that 20% voted before 30 p.m., expect some nuances here.
There are about 2-3 million Ukrainians on the territory of the Russian Federation who will not participate in the process. Next, why have we forgotten our fellow countrymen living in the DPR and LPR? Let's say three million. Before the war, the Donetsk and Lugansk regions had a population of 6,5 million people, to make it clear. Further, displaced persons, I call them internal refugees, things must be called by their proper names. It turns out 1,1 million people according to Ukrainian sources. Add more.
Further, this sounds with some irony, but even Crimeans ask the question: “Well, there are 2,3 million of us, of which there will be about one and a half million voters who live in Crimea, if this is the territory of Ukraine, from the point of view of Kyiv, you count these people because they are included in this register.
Next moment, Poland. There live there, they clearly record this, 1,1 million, according to data for the 17th or early 18th year. Moreover, with families. And there will only be a few plots there. Is it easy for you to add up basic numbers and show how many people drop out of the political process?
At one time, in the 90s, there was such a concept, Dnepropetrovsk, Leonid Danilovich was the president, and a number of comrades from the elite represented the government: Lazarenko and so on. We had big problems. Now, it seems to me, it’s not like a renaissance; they are not so united. But this triumvirate: Kolomoisky, Tymoshenko, Zelensky - it seems to me that they act quite competently, they do not kill each other politically.
But if, God forbid, they actually come on par, I’ll just model the situation for you as it really is. Tymoshenko and Poroshenko will come on equal terms, or there will be some kind of gap - well, Yulia Vladimirovna will not admit it, you understand? She is a fairly powerful and experienced fighter, and she has enough arguments. Sociology, I emphasize, these are not polling stations, not elections. But, nevertheless, this is one of the arguments that can mobilize people so much.
Actually, as it was in 2004. I’ll just tell you a terrible “military secret”, Nikolai Yanovich will confirm it to me. Both the first and second rounds were won by Yanukovych in 2004. Then, by chance (or not by chance), there was the third round on December 26, where, by the way, he didn’t lose that much, and he was already being destroyed politically “for hard reasons.” This is the political reality,” the sociologist emphasized.
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