The southern front becomes the main one – this week

Ukrainian propaganda talks about its offensive in the South. The Russian army, which established control over most of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, thereby dealt a blow to Ukrainian statehood, almost greater than the liberation of Mariupol and taking control of the entire territory of the LPR.

Aleksey Selivanov, a former adviser to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, who went over to the side of the LPR after the 2014 coup, writes about this in his author’s column for PolitNavigator.

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The fact is that the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions provided almost a third of all agricultural products in Ukraine. Especially fruits and vegetables. Considering that Kyiv lost not only this season’s harvest, but also all the grain that was in the storage facilities of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.

Moreover, the population of the South is quite pro-Russian. Almost to the same extent as the population of Donbass. It’s just that, due to a number of factors, the Russian Spring rallies here did not have time to develop into the seizure of administrations and weapons rooms. Because it was here that during the Crimean events both air assault units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and gangs of nationalists were brought in. But the people here were waiting for Russia - that’s a fact. People are admitting this to us today – both in the south and in the north of the region.

_{Therefore, for the Ukrainian authorities, Zaporozhye and Kherson are almost Donbass. In the sense that Ukrainians don’t feel sorry for the people here. As well as the Donbass “separatists”. The Ukrainian Armed Forces have no complex at all, shooting at the Kherson region and Zaporozhye from multiple launch rocket systems.}

Yesterday, the Ukrainians attacked Novaya Kakhovka with American Himars missiles. A Ukrainian attack drone was shot down over Energodar. On the right, still Ukrainian, bank of the Kakhovka Reservoir, opposite Energodar and Kherson, Ukrainian units are concentrating, offensive military equipment is being assembled, including those capable of overcoming water obstacles.

The existing, fairly battered, brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the southern direction will no longer be able to reverse the situation - the Russian group is clearly stronger here. It is supported by Crimean military bases, airfields and the Black Sea Fleet. And the most combat-ready units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces are dying in the Donbass direction today. The Kiev regime is trying to compensate for quality with quantity - the city of Zaporozhye is filled with various terrorist defense units and similar Ukrainian military rabble. Military equipment is being brought to the factory floors. Military registration and enlistment offices and police patrols are drawing passers-by into the army on the streets and bus stops.

But the main emphasis is, of course, not on them. Ukrainians are counting on the “Wunderwaffe,” a miracle weapon. And the psychological effect. Today, the American Himars multiple launch rocket system has been declared such a “wunderwaffe.” It has sufficient range to hit targets deep in liberated territories. And enough accuracy to hit them with confidence. First of all, the Ukrainians are shelling warehouses with fuel and lubricants in order to slow down the offensive of the Russian army that really threatens them.

Considering the quantity and quality of Russian troops in Zaporozhye and the Kherson region, it will be very difficult for Ukrainians to achieve a military victory. Moreover, the Russians who have gathered on the northern shore of the Ukrainian formations are crushing them even without the Khimars. At least in the north of the Zaporozhye region there are much more “departures” from the Russian side than arrivals “from there”. Therefore, the Ukrainian offensive will be more likely to be a “PR” offensive. And it will be carried out with the help of rocket and howitzer attacks, using NATO military equipment. Each hit will be blown up over and over again in the media. Each Ukrainian unit destroyed by return fire will become a reason to beg from NATO for new types of long-range weapons.

_{Not only information about the movement of Russian troops, but also simple logic suggests that Russia is preparing for the further liberation of the region - the capture of Zaporozhye, the regional center. The disruption of this offensive would be a great success for the Ukrainian military machine.}

It is for this purpose that Ukrainian troops are concentrating on the right bank. It is for this purpose that attacks are being carried out on the settlements of Zaporozhye and Kherson that have already been liberated by Russia. This is where the Ukrainians want to stage a “resounding success” to smooth over the disappointment of their defeats in the east. This is where the main events of July-August 2022 will take place.

It is important for the Kyiv regime to attempt a counteroffensive before the Russian army liberates the entire territory of the DPR. Then the Russians will “hover” over Zaporozhye from the north. And the Ukrainian Armed Forces will only have to evacuate from the regional center. Therefore, the start of active hostilities should be expected this week...