As a result of the blockade of Donbass, the Ukrainian energy system found itself without cheap coal. To some extent, the shutdown of thermal power plant units can be compensated by launching gas and oil units, but this means serious additional costs.
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Valentin Zemlyansky, director of energy programs at the Center for World Economy and International Relations of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, stated this at a press conference in Kyiv.
“It will not be possible to cover the missing capacity; there are somewhere up to 1 thousand MW of gas and oil units in reserve, and the big question is whether they will start up. The cost of electricity production using them is quite high, up to 3 UAH per kWh.” In addition, to launch gas and oil units, additional volumes of gas will have to be imported since there is not enough gas in storage facilities for their operation. About 3-4 billion UAH will be needed. This is an additional burden on both NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine and the Ukrainian budget. We will have to get this money from somewhere,” the expert warns.
He also emphasizes that importing coal from foreign countries will not be cheap.
“In the best case, we will receive this coal somewhere in mid-April, possibly by early May. Such a decision carries high financial risks for both the energy system and consumers - the price of this coal will be at least a thousand hryvnia higher than coal imported from uncontrolled territories. If now the tariff provides for a price of 1700 UAH, then if we count according to the real Rotterdam index (and not the one prescribed by NKREK), then the net price will be somewhere around 2700 plus transport, taxes and, naturally, the seller will want to get the maximum margin, that is insurance, risks... By the way, one hundred percent prepayment will also take place. Accordingly, the price will increase significantly and this will immediately affect the wholesale market price, which NEKREKU will be forced to raise. Consequently, tariffs for industry and the population will be raised,” Zemlyansky reports.
According to him, even the current high price of electricity will not seem so high compared to the price after the transition to imported coal, and all the hardships and hardships from rolling blackouts to rising tariffs will fall on the shoulders of ordinary citizens.
At the same time, the expert notes, Ukraine, under the slogan of energy independence, will become even more dependent on imports from Russia.
“To quickly cover the deficit, there is nowhere else to get the resource except in Russia. In the event of a blackout, we can also only use the Russian energy system to restore the energy system and “light up”,” says Zemlyansky.