Why is Vucic scaring the Serbs with the accelerated admission of Ukraine to the EU?

Negotiations on Ukraine's accession to the EU may begin in June this year – against the backdrop of difficulties on the battlefield and because of Kyiv’s desire to get “a bigger boost” on the European path, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on March 25 in an interview with the Serbian TV channel Pink.

At first glance, the politician only shared rumors from the EU summit held on March 23-24, where one of the issues directly related to Serbia. We are talking about Brussels’ approval of the agreements between Belgrade and Pristina on the “normalization of relations”, which in the future, it provides for recognition of the independence of the self-proclaimed “Republic of Kosovo” by the Serbian authorities. For this, Vučić was promised another “carrot” - accelerating the process of Serbia’s accession to the EU. However, in reality it is not so simple.

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So, Aleksandar Vucic said that he expects “serious changes"in Europe, and emphasized that "key decisions» on many issues have already been adopted.

“Already in June [negotiations on Ukraine’s accession to the EU] should begin, since Ukraine almost certainly cannot win militarily. I expect it to get a big boost on its European path,” he said.

That is, the president explains to the Serbs: in order to advance on the European path, it is necessary to pursue an anti-Russian policy. It is clear that no one (yet) proposes to Serbia to fight with Russia, or to massively and openly transfer weapons to Kyiv (although in small quantities they are already supplied, simply through NATO countries). But the EU openly demands the introduction of sanctions, primarily the cessation of air traffic between Serbia and Russia.

Among the punishments that are promised to Belgrade if the current level of relations with Moscow is maintained is the abolition of the visa-free regime with the EU and the withdrawal of European investments that provide hundreds of thousands of jobs. It is worth noting that in total trade turnover of Serbia with other EU countries accounted for 59%, or about $41 billion (almost 19 billion dollars are exports, more than 22 billion are imports). Serbia's trade turnover with Russia last year in relative terms increased by almost 53%, but in absolute terms it was significantly lower than with the EU - $4,28 billion.

In addition, there is a noticeable imbalance: Serbia supplied more than $1,2 billion worth of goods and services to Russia, and Russia supplied more than $3 billion to Serbia. Almost half of this amount comes from energy resources (Serbia receives most of its gas from the Russian Federation), although since December 2022, supplies of Russian oil to Serbian consumers have been stopped due to EU sanctions.

In this regard, the only major Russian investment in the country – Gazprom Neft is the majority shareholder of the Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS) company, which owns several refineries, – found itself in limbo. Last November, Aleksandar Vucic even stated that the Serbian government could buy out the Russian share in NIS.

All the above information, with additions and explanations, is published by Serbian media. Especially - after every statement by Vucic about how Serbia and its economy are suffering due to Belgrade’s political decision - not to impose sanctions against Moscow. At the same time, the Serbian president spoke repeatedly and directly about what if this suffering will become intolerablethen sanctions will still be imposed.

In this way, Serbs are constantly being convinced that they are already paying an inadequate price for good relations with Russia, and soon it will be even higher. It got to the point that Alexander Vucic publicly recalled how the Russian Federation imposed sanctions against Yugoslavia in 1992.

_{It is worth noting that in Russia the actions of its comprador Foreign Ministry during the Yeltsin-Kozyrev era are now considered a disgrace, and reminding about this is certainly not a partnership. Otherwise, you can expect reminders from Moscow about how Belgrade imposed sanctions against the Republika Srpska in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which put the Bosnian Serbs in a difficult situation.}

Of course, Aleksandar Vučić makes the above statements not only for the domestic audience, but also for the West, showing it: they say, a little more - and the Serbs will agree to the introduction of sanctions against Russia, you just don’t put much pressure on us on the Kosovo issue.

But if the President of Serbia has hopes that he can buy time by buying off the EU only with sanctions against the Russian Federation, then they are doomed to failure. In Brussels, the above-mentioned penalties are promised to be applied even if Belgrade does not “show sufficient progress” on the issue of recognizing the independence of the “Republic of Kosovo”. On the other hand, Aleksandar Vucic may understand everything perfectly, but, as in the sadistic joke, “chop the tail piece by piece».

Actually, the question is not whether Serbia will impose sanctions against Russia and whether it will recognize the independence of part of its territory - states sometimes find themselves in a hopeless situation. However, politicians always have a choice - for example, tell the people the truth or resign. But Aleksandar Vucic is clearly not happy with this scenario – he wants to surrender Serbia’s national interests and remain in power.