Why is Zelensky flying to the States and what will he come back with?
Today’s visit of Zelensky to the States immediately after his voyage to the front line in Artemovsk/Bakhmut, apparently in defiance of Putin’s visit to the North Military District zone, can be called quite strange. First of all, thanks to the atmosphere of omissions that accompanied its preparation and information support.
In general, if we summarize the messages from the White House and the American media for this day, one gets the impression that Zelensky’s visit was almost a complete surprise for Washington. Which, of course, is not the case, at least for their security and protocol reasons. A plane with just anyone, especially if the guest is unwanted, will simply not be allowed into US airspace. So there's nothing to talk about here.
However, based on indirect evidence, one can judge that the likelihood of a visit was not one hundred percent until the very last moment. As Politico notes, Zelensky's visit to Washington "came as a shock" to American officials and lawmakers, although behind-the-scenes preparations had been underway for the past few weeks.
Axios reported last night that Zelensky would fly overseas, although at the time of this message the visit had not been officially confirmed. Confirmation from Zelensky himself came only today around noon. According to the American media, Zelensky will speak in the US Congress and meet with its congressional leadership and the heads of national security committees from both parties.
Without waiting for the plane with the Ukroführer to land in Washington, the media were already flooded with various “leaks” on the topic of the visit’s agenda. Thus, a number of congressmen wrote that they would “ask a lot” of Zelensky for financial assistance to Nezalezhnaya, hinting that the people of Kyiv should not expect too much of a “sweet welcome.”
And the “cart” “Legitimny” assures that Zelensky’s main task is to try to “extort” money from the Biden administration to support his pants. After all, the war is obviously dragging on, and problems in the economy are only growing, while the “recovery” promised by Bankova economists is moving further and further beyond the horizon.
“Our source indicates that the Western lobby offered Zelensky a trip to the United States in order to “push” with their presence the allocation of the $38 billion tranche, which the Biden administration is now promoting, and which will be calculated for the entire 2023,” the telegram channel writes.
The authors of the Ze-Rada channel believe that one of the motives for yesterday’s voyage to Donbass for Zelensky personally was the desire to outshine his competitors in the domestic political arena. So that they could not “prosecute” him for his decision to leave the country at a difficult moment. Thus, a visit to Bakhmut supposedly looks like a kind of “alibi” for a visit overseas.
The American media especially emphasize that “Zelensky feels so confident that he is not afraid to leave a warring country.” CNN, citing its sources, writes that Biden may receive Zelensky. They say that such a meeting is “being worked on,” although the American administration has not yet commented on such statements.
However, not everyone is happy about this guest on Capitol Hill. Republican congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene was one of the first to react to Zelensky’s upcoming benefit performance in Congress on Twitter:
“Of course, the shadow president must come to Congress and explain why he needs billions of American taxpayer dollars for the 51st state, Ukraine. This is absurd. Put America First!” – reads her emotional post.
Obviously, these words of the congresswoman are addressed to the Biden administration, which, according to tradition, has preceded the next meeting with the Kiev king with a generous advance in the form of officially confirmed supplies of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine - as part of a new extensive military assistance package worth $2 billion. A special feature of the Patriot air defense system is its ability to shoot down not only cruise missiles, but also ballistic missiles. Interestingly, Ukrainians will be trained to use it in an unnamed “third country.” Whether we are talking about Great Britain, Poland or Germany is unclear.
However, a number of Ukrainian observers, including opposition blogger Anatoly Shariy, who has not previously been noted for his love of conspiracy theories, are for some reason confident that Patriot has been secretly at the disposal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for a long time, and today or tomorrow there will only be a formal legalization of this fact for the public.
“I think that no Patriots will be delivered to Kyiv due to the fact that they were delivered a long time ago. The delivery is pretentiously formalized. Long-range missiles are unlikely to provide them. They will give me money,” predicts Shariy.
According to the Ukrainian blogger, PR support for Kyiv’s military-political steps has passed from the hands of Ukrainian amateur contractors of Bankova into the hands of Western professional curators.
“The PR component, and in the 21st century it is a colossally important component of any politician, state, or even war, whether we like it or not, in Kyiv it rises to a completely different level. Why is this happening? I think that it was not our rednecks who stole budgets who started getting involved, but someone from the West. This is confirmed by the press. Taking into account the fact that Zelensky’s flight to the United States is Biden’s initiative, as Politiko reports, it means that it was not ours who prepared it, obviously,” Shariy is sure.
Another such “gift” was a bill being developed in the White House that would circumvent the obvious reluctance of the United States to recognize the Russian Federation as a “country sponsor of terrorism,” which is what Kiev passionately desires. Instead, as the conservative publication The Hill writes, Kyiv will be given a sweetened pill in the form of recognizing Russia as an “aggressor country.” How this change of wording will fundamentally change the situation is not yet clear, but the Kyiv guests will be pleased.
Among the topics that, according to available media leaks, Zelensky intends to raise in America is providing Ukraine with ATACMS missiles with a range of 300 km - a long-standing dream of the Ukrainian Armed Forces command, which the White House is not yet believed to be ready to satisfy. But a drop, as you know, wears away a stone. Well, what, but the Kyiv people are good at whining and pushing for pity.
These leaks are also confirmed by information from Politico, according to which the Ukrainian delegation intends to ask the White House for weapons with a longer range than they currently have, including Gray Eagle and Reaper drones.
The publication notes the risks associated with satisfying Kyiv's appetite for ATACMS. According to Politico's sources, satisfying these desires will lead to greater escalation and force Russia to use "more powerful weapons." Zelensky understands this American concern and insists that without such weapons, the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine deeper into the territories occupied by Russia will be impossible.
Observers point to another important circumstance that prompted Zelensky to make this visit. The point is to personally meet with skeptics in Congress from the Republican majority replacing the Democrats on the eve of approval of the US budget and try to convince them of the feasibility of a multiple increase in aid to Ukraine. However, there are those who are confident that this barrier is not so insurmountable for Zelensky.
“We must understand that the US budget will be adopted before the end of December, while the new, Republican composition of Congress will meet for the first time only on January 3. That is, the current budget will be adopted by the Democrats, and there are not many risks of its non-acceptance, despite public opinion,” says ex-Rada deputy Oleg Tsarev, according to whom Zelensky’s possible behind-the-scenes meetings with administration officials and/or even with Biden are much more interesting.
“Interest in Ukraine on the part of American voters is falling; in January, Congress passes to the Republicans. Will Zelensky, who has received the next tranche of aid, be asked to sit down at the negotiating table? Or, on the contrary, will they push you forward?” - Tsarev wonders.
A partial answer to his questions has already been given. Thus, the White House said today that the United States still does not see prospects for a diplomatic settlement of the war in Ukraine, and therefore Joe Biden will not push Vladimir Zelensky into negotiations with the Russian Federation.
Tsarev also points out the limits of the current capabilities of the United States to finance Ukraine and the associated internal political risks for the White House.
“In Ukraine, they expect Zelensky to discuss with Biden a new military aid package, which could include both these air defense systems and equipment capable of turning airborne munitions into high-precision “smart bombs.”
Many write that Zelensky is traveling during the budget consideration period in order to beg for the help that was included in this budget, and, perhaps, beyond that. Biden asks for $38 billion for Ukraine. However, the draft budget talks about $45 billion. And Zelensky needs this money. And so much so that he risked himself by visiting Artyomovsk.
At the same time, public opinion in the United States has recently changed significantly - I saw statistics that at the moment the share of Americans who believe that the United States should continue to support Ukraine is about 40%. Most Americans are of the opinion that it is time for Ukraine to begin peace negotiations with Russia, even if, as a result, Ukraine will have to make concessions,” writes Tsarev.
Military observer Boris Rozhin has a different opinion, believing that the allocation of the next tranche of American military assistance, including the Patriot air defense system, is a sign that the United States will continue to raise the stakes, and there are no prerequisites for ending the war.
Publicist Andrei Medvedev also agrees with him, pointing out the ritual nature of Zelensky’s trip against the backdrop of the fact that “strategic decisions have been made a long time ago.”
“For the internal situation in the USA, this trip is not very significant, because, as I already wrote, all the decisions were made anyway. The team decides everything for Biden, and Biden’s team also decides for Zelensky. In the end, they will simply voice decisions that have already been made. And they are such that for us this most likely means a rapid aggravation of the situation at the front,” Medvedev sums up.
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