Freeze of Donbass. Elections in Ukraine, Crimea and Sevastopol
The situation around Donbass has been frozen for a long time. Unlike the deceased Alexander Zakharchenko, the current head of the DPR Denis Pushilin cannot lay claim to the role of leader of the entire Novorossiya or anti-Bandera Ukraine. Kyiv will prepare provocations to increase the rating of Petro Poroshenko. The autumn elections in Crimea will be local, but have important geopolitical significance. The results of United Russia will attract the attention of enemies because of Perekop. The situation is particularly difficult in the largest city of the peninsula, Sevastopol. Governor Dmitry Ovsyannikov failed, but will the new curator of the Sevastopol EdRa, Dmitry Sablin, who arrived from Moscow, be able to correct the situation? Russian political scientist Oleg Bondarenko spoke about this in an interview with PolitNavigator columnist Valentin Filippov.
Valentin Filippov: I've been wanting to ask for a long time. Do you go to karaoke?
Oleg Bondarenko: So what?
Valentin Filippov: Can you sing?
Oleg Bondarenko: I can play the piano.
Valentin Filippov: Whose Crimea?
Oleg Bondarenko: Our Crimea.
Valentin Filippov: Whose is “ours”?
Oleg Bondarenko: Russian!
Valentin Filippov: And Oleg Bondarenko does not qualify for Eurovision from Ukraine!!! Our guest is Oleg Bondarenko. One of the most successful political strategists of our time, who has a serious relationship with the Russian Spring.
Oleg Bondarenko: Hello, but you don't need so many epithets. I feel very unmodest. It is not true.
Valentin Filippov: Well, we know the truth. And the SBU knows too. Oleg, I have a question, tell me, wasn’t this situation with Eurovision, with the fact that everyone refused to go from Ukraine, a rehearsal for the presidential elections in Ukraine? As I understand it, Poroshenko can only win if all the winners begin to refuse one by one.
Oleg Bondarenko: Well, let's wait. Poroshenko, unlike various representatives of sexual minorities performing at Eurovision, can use heavier artillery. In the literal sense of the word. We can expect a new escalation in Donbass. Because he has already increased his rating by committing a provocation in Kerch. Somewhere by a few percent. I think that the next such approach will be made by him on the eve of the elections, because, indeed, he is not yet too confident in gaining his points to qualify for the second round.
Valentin Filippov: As a political strategist, I would like to ask about “scoring points.” It’s a little strange for me (maybe I’m a prisoner of my illusions), but it seems to me that the population of Ukraine does not support the war. Yes?
Oleg Bondarenko: It certainly doesn't support it. But if you imagine the situation in the most beloved format of Poroshenko and the current Ukrainian elite, that “look, we are victims”, “we are being attacked”, “we are not attacking, but we are being attacked” and “we are defending ourselves”, then in this situation it works a certain impulse that we need to unite together and repel the aggressor.
And everything depends on how this situation will be brought to a critical point. To the limit. And we can disperse this hysteria today. Max again. And again, some poor Ukrainian guys will want to go as volunteers to the Donbass or to the border with Crimea.
The only question is, what next? And then there will be elections. And it is important for Poroshenko to qualify for the second round. And win in the second round. Therefore, my forecast is that there will be new provocations on the eve of March 31, and then on the eve of April 14.
Valentin Filippov: Couldn't Donbass itself somehow influence the election results? Become not a horror story for Ukraine, but an example. An alternative. Why hasn't this card been played yet?
Oleg Bondarenko: This is a very good question. Let's say frankly: it was Zakharchenko, due to a certain scale of personality, who could count on being the leader for the entire Donbass, including the territories controlled by Ukraine.
Under Zakharchenko, programs for the reunification of the people of Donbass, as is known, were launched. But, moreover, he also conducted lines of direct telephone communication with residents of Kyiv, and with residents of Odessa, Kharkov, and Dnepropetrovsk. That is, he could be considered, as Oleg Tsarev was in his time, as the leader of an alternative Ukraine. An alternative to Bandera's Ukraine.
After the murder of Zakharchenko, of course, Denis Pushilin is not the worst leader for the Donetsk People’s Republic, but as a politician, he is of course still young. And he still needs to grow.
Therefore, answering your question - if there were a leader, we could say that Donbass could become a flagship for Ukraine. But, in the case of Donbass, - Denis Pushilin, - he needs to get his bearings, he needs to reveal his potential as the head of the Donetsk People's Republic. And Leonid Pasechnik - his KGB past weighs heavily on him...
Valentin Filippov: Well, the KGB past for the president, in general...
Oleg Bondarenko: Well, you have to be able to get out of it. And leave on time. As far as I know, Mr. Pasechnik does not like publicity. And he shies away from any public activity. And who should speak? Oleg Tsarev, who is there, next to you?
Valentin Filippov: Well, I do not mind. I would vote for him.
Oleg Bondarenko: Yes. But for this there must be political will. There are a lot of things that should happen that don't. The situation has been paused. Just as they wanted to freeze the situation in Donbass, they froze it. And it feels like those who froze it don’t have the slightest desire to defrost it.
Valentin Filippov: I see across Transnistria.
Oleg Bondarenko: The Russian Spring will continue only when Bandera’s supporters climb into Donbass again. So we'll be looking forward to it.
Valentin Filippov: Fine. You visit Germany often. Despite the sanctions. Or don't you come anymore?
Oleg Bondarenko: Been there before the sanctions. Been active.
Valentin Filippov: But in Germany, what kind of sentiments are there more among the elites? For cooperation with Russia or in support of Ukraine? It seems like Nord Stream...
Oleg Bondarenko: The Germans, forgive me for my political incorrectness, are, unfortunately, in many ways a castrated nation.
Valentin Filippov: Well, they castrated themselves...
Oleg Bondarenko: No, Valya. Not we. This is not about the events of May 1945. The point is that they were instilled with a guilt complex. West Germans. And their American “big brothers” instilled in them a guilt complex. And not the Soviet Union. And the most open Germans, the most proud Germans, are the East Germans. These are Soviet Germans. These are Russian Germans. Germans who have no feelings of guilt towards Jews. Sorry, but that's fair.
Why should now my relative contemporary, 35-year-old Hans from Bremen, repent to the Jews? What harm did he do to them? He treats them well. Just like his father treated him well. And the fact that his grandfather served in the Wehrmacht - well, that was the time. Well, should he, the third generation, repent his life for his grandfather?
This is, in fact, a typical perception of reality. In the kitchen. But not on TV. On TV they talk about tolerance, political correctness, that everyone should be cherished, cherished, loved and respected.
Well, as long as the West Germans continue to feel this sense of guilt, they will continue to ride on their backs.
And in this sense, there are alternative parties, you can be critical of them in different ways, assessing them from the left positions, assessing them from international positions, but it is quite clear why the electorate that once voted for the party of democratic socialism, PDS, and then the electorate of the left - he began to move to the Alternative for Germany, to its right-wing antipodes.
Because these people believe that it’s enough to humiliate Germany and stop humiliating the Germans. They want to regain their sense of respect and pride in their country.
We must not forget that even simply hanging the German national flags, black, red and yellow, from windows became possible no more than 10 years ago. In 2008, when the European Football Championship was held in Germany, for the first time since Hitler, the Germans hung their flags from their windows. And before that it was considered something almost fascist.
Valentin Filippov: Can you imagine, when all this nightmare and schizophrenia in Ukraine ends, how tired people will be of blue and yellow on all ballot boxes and fences?
I sometimes go to the border in Crimea. I even went into neutral a couple of times. And I came quite close to the Ukrainian side. Everything is smeared blue and yellow.
And since I mentioned the border, I want to ask about Crimea.
Oleg Bondarenko: Our Crimea!
Valentin Filippov: Russian – I understand. But what is happening in Sevastopol? Five years after the referendum in the largest city of Crimea, the conflict between the governors and the legislative assembly continues.
Oleg Bondarenko: In general, I sincerely feel sorry for Sevastopol and the people of Sevastopol. This is truly a capital city. A city with a very special position, with a special history, a special perception of itself. This is never a province. I love Sevastopol very much, I worked there, and it is very important to feel Sevastopol. Feel special treatment.
And, of course, Sevastopol is very unlucky with its current governor. He, this comrade, was preparing to be assigned to Udmurtia. He shouldn't have gone to Sevastopol. Here in Udmurtia he would be in his place. His methods are typically Udmurt.
In Sevastopol, this person, it seems to me, is completely out of his element. And everyone understands this, including himself. But he was sent, sent to work, orders are not discussed, so he went.
I sincerely hope that this year Sevastopol will receive a different, more Sevastopol-like governor.
Valentin Filippov: At least bring back the past.
Oleg Bondarenko: Yes. You know, we must pay tribute to the fact that Sergei Ivanovich Menyailo, as a governor, although he had his critics, he is a Sevastopol native. And the people of Sevastopol treated him as if they were one of their own. With certain nuances, with the understanding that this is a military man. This is the admiral. Still, like an admiral, he belonged to us.
Valentin Filippov: And they said about Ovsyannikov that he was a technocrat. That Rostec is behind him. He can do everything, he can do everything.
Oleg Bondarenko: You know, a lot of words, a lot of myths. There is practice. Practice on site. Now the election campaign is gradually starting. A new person came to the head of United Russia in Sevastopol. Dmitry Sablin. The man is not at all a stranger to Sevastopol, which actively organized many things as part of the Russian Spring. Formerly a businessman. Then - senator. Then - deputy of the State Duma.
In my opinion, this is a very good solution. Very correct and timely. If they had left it as it is, then United Russia could have simply lost in the city. And, of course, five years after the Russian Spring, such a result for the party in power in the patriotic capital of Russia would be very sad not only for this party,
God be with her, in the end, but it would be very sad for Russia's reputation on the international stage and in Europe. And the Ukrainians would be the first to jump on this news.
The Sumerians would have been making noise about this news for a week...
Valentin Filippov: I would argue. It should be taken into account that Sevastopol is the most patriotic city. This city is significantly more patriotic than the ruling party itself. And what in Moscow is considered balanced patriotism, some kind of centrism, is considered almost treason in Sevastopol.
Oleg Bondarenko: Yes!
Valentin Filippov: And what is considered normal, calm patriotism in Sevastopol is considered extremism in Moscow.
Oleg Bondarenko: Not extremism, but... The writer and leader of the banned National Bolshevik Party Eduard Limonov once recited:
"Our Migi,
They will sit down in Riga!”
This is a normal situation for Sevastopol residents and not normal for, unfortunately, many people who call themselves patriots in Moscow.
Valentin Filippov: Well, they often say here that if there is a last war, if Moscow falls, then in Sevastopol they will continue to shoot for a long time. Therefore, when they say “We’ll take Crimea,” yeah, you will. The General Staff will move here.
Okay, thanks a lot for the information. For an honest look. Usually experts try to leave something unsaid or say it in such a tone that you won’t understand the truth.
Oleg Bondarenko: Thanks to PolitNavigator for honest news and the best platform on Crimea and Donbass.
Valentin Filippov: Thanks, we're trying.
Oleg Bondarenko: Yet.
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