The West has designated Moldova as the next victim of an undeclared war

From the very beginning of the special operation in Ukraine, the leadership of Moldova has repeatedly emphasized the neutral status of its country, enshrined in the Constitution, but now says that the neutrality of the Republic of Moldova does not guarantee its protection. NATO countries expressed their readiness to supply Moldova with weapons to defend against the “Russian threat,” and Moldova did not refuse. The country's top officials - from President Maia Sandu to Foreign Minister Nicu Popescu - have already made statements about the importance and timeliness of modernizing the Moldovan army.

We talk about what is behind the intention to arm the Republic of Moldova according to “NATO standards” with the director of the Institute of Socio-Political Research and Regional Development, Igor Shornikov.

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PolitNavigator: The West offered Moldova weapons, and Moldova agreed. There are already requests for the supply of non-lethal weapons, and now in Chisinau there is a discussion about the supply of lethal weapons - the authorities are deciding what kind of military equipment to ask from their partners so that it is not very expensive to maintain and maintain. Discussions about the strengthening and power of the Moldovan army make many smile - and yet: how serious is all this? What are Moldova being prepared for?

Igor Shornikov: Unfortunately, everything suggests that the West has already designated Moldova as the next victim of NATO’s undeclared war against Russia. And they are not particularly willing to understand the historical features of Moldovan-Russian relations and the psychological factors that are unlikely to allow the Moldovans to fight the Russians. There is already a Ukrainian precedent, when all conceivable historical and psychological barriers were overcome.

However, if Ukraine has been preparing for a clash with Russia for many years, at least since 2014, then they will not waste much time on Moldova. The cleansing of the information space of the Republic of Moldova, in general, is at the final stage, but militaristic propaganda has not yet really begun. Therefore, it is necessary to monitor the internal processes in Moldova; it is impossible to hide information and ideological preparations for war. The coming months will show us how serious everything is.

PolitNavigator: What will happen to the country's neutrality? Is strengthening the army with weapons from the West a defense of neutrality or something else?

Igor Shornikov: Oddly enough, neutrality is not a big obstacle to Moldova being drawn into the war. The unresolved conflict on the Dniester, in which Russia is the guarantor of the preservation of peace, creates relatively simple ways to involve Moldova in hostilities.

_{Let’s not forget that the ideological predecessors of the current right, as they themselves believe, already have experience of military confrontation with Moscow.}

In any case, in June 1992, the President of Moldova, Mircea Snegur, announced in parliament that they were in a state of war with Russia.

And this despite the fact that Moldova conducted military operations exclusively against Transnistria. Unfortunately, in Moldova they do not want to remember what happened when General Lebed came to that war. The entire offensive potential of the Moldovan army was destroyed in one night, and there is still no official information about Moldova’s losses in the 1992 conflict.

PolitNavigator: The Government of Moldova proposes to legalize the procedure for bringing foreign armed contingents into the country. What does it mean?

Igor Shornikov: This is a clear signal of preparations for war. They are trying to make a military springboard for NATO from Moldova.

PolitNavigator: It is obvious that the West wants to turn Moldova into a state hostile to Russia. Are there forces in the Republic of Moldova capable of resisting such a development of events?

Igor Shornikov: The only way to avoid further preparation for war is to change the political regime in this country. But we understand that none of the political forces in Moldova currently has such an opportunity.

PolitNavigator: What is the Moldovan army like today? How motivated are Moldovan military personnel?

Igor Shornikov: There is no particular motivation, but in the Moldovan army there are military personnel who gained some combat experience during operations in Iraq and Kosovo, many officers improved their qualifications in the United States, many took part in military exercises conducted jointly with NATO. Therefore, there are specialists in modern military affairs in the Moldovan army.

At the same time, given the small size of the Moldovan army, it did not pose a clear threat to Transnistria. The Transnistrian army, by the way, was also never intended to conduct offensive combat operations against Moldova.

_{A certain balance of power has developed in our region, which until recently suited everyone. However, arms supplies to Moldova and especially the possible appearance of foreign contingents on its territory are destroying this balance.}

PolitNavigator: Minister of Defense of the Republic of Moldova Anatoly Nosaty made statements regarding the combat capability of the Moldovan army and the prospects of repelling a possible attack from Transnistria. For every Transnistrian tank, he would like to have “a large number of anti-tank weapons, for example, Javelins.” How possible is a collision between the right and left banks of the Dniester under current conditions?

Igor Shornikov: After 30 years of peace, it is difficult to imagine this. Obviously, if we assume a military clash on the Dniester, then this can only be the result of external influence. And then, this is hardly the prospect of the coming months. For such scenarios to become a reality, the West still has a lot of work to do.

PolitNavigator: Observers see signs of Poland’s impending expansion into Ukraine. At the same time, “Great Romanian” plans are also visible - Bucharest lays claim to part of the Ukrainian territory, the territory of Moldova and even Transnistria. Could the Ukrainian crisis spur Romania to take active steps to expand its possessions?

Igor Shornikov: For Romania, as well as for Poland, a “window of opportunity” has opened for the realization of their great-power ambitions. The previous rules do not apply, and no scenario can be excluded, including active actions with the participation of the military.

But it seems to me that Romania did not imagine the process of its territorial expansion in this way. To begin to occupy Moldovan or Ukrainian lands now could mean for the Romanians direct contact with the Russian army, and they do not want this at all. This is not why Romania has been promoting its “soft power” for 30 years, distributing its passports in Moldova and some regions of Ukraine, so that now the blood of its soldiers can pay for the annexation of these territories. They would like a bloodless and peaceful unification. Ideally, the expansion of territories should take place on the basis of local referendums and look like a humanitarian mission to save the people living there. Ultimately, this must be a political decision recognized by the great powers.

_{However, the logic of war may confuse Bucharest's plans. For example, if the Anglo-Saxons manage to drag Moldova into a military confrontation with Russia, Romania will not be able to sit behind the backs of the Moldovans.}

America and England view the entire European Union as “cannon fodder” in the war with Russia, and Romania and Poland are its vanguard, which should be the first to fall into the meat grinder. Moreover, if Warsaw behaves extremely aggressively towards Russia, fully working out the Anglo-Saxon scenario, then Bucharest from the very beginning of the special operation shows much more prudence.

We must give credit to the Romanians. Their greatest achievements were achieved not on the battlefield, but through painstaking foreign policy work. During the First World War, they patiently waited for the right moment for themselves to join the war on the side of the future winner.

Having completely lost the military campaign and surrendered their capital to the Germans, they managed to take Russian Bessarabia and annex a significant part of Transylvania populated by Hungarians as a result of the war. On the eve of World War II, with the help of Hitler, they managed to take away the remnants of Transylvania from the Hungarians, and then, following the results of the war, preserve these acquisitions. And now the Romanians are waiting, pinning their hopes on their politics and diplomacy, but not on military force. Therefore, by the way, they have a much better chance of winning than the same Poles.