The West is not going to protect Lukashenko from Moscow
In the near future, it is quite possible to revive the project of the Union State of Russia and Belarus.
About this in an interview with the Kyiv online publication “
Answering the question whether Russian President Vladimir Putin would want to start a war against Ukraine, the publication’s interlocutor suggested that it would be Belarus.
“It won’t be easy, but I think some trick is possible that will allow Belarus to be included in the Russian Federation. We can also see the revival of the union state of Russia and Belarus. And this will be a kind of counterbalance to the failure of the “Russian world” project in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Church gaining independence from the Moscow Patriarchate was a painful blow to Russia as a kind of civilizational superpower. Therefore, we may see some action in Belarus. I think this is more likely than a significant escalation of the war in eastern Ukraine,” Lucas said.
At the same time, he is skeptical that in this case the West will seriously respond to Russia.
“It is very difficult to defend Lukashenko, who is on our sanctions list, who has killed people, and whom we have justifiably treated with hostility and severity for 25 years. It will be difficult for us to make a big noise in defense of Lukashenko, no matter how much we want to protect the sovereignty of Belarus. I think the West’s response will be quite weak, especially if the consequence is not complete annexation, but a Union State,” the expert believes.
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