The West is tearing Transnistria away from Russia following Ukraine and Moldova
The other day, the European Union not very magnificently celebrated the tenth anniversary of the “Eastern Partnership” - the EU cooperation program with six post-Soviet neighboring states, launched on May 7, 2009: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.
The idea of the project, which was initiated by Sweden and Poland, was to bring neighboring countries closer to the European Union to the extent that each of them wishes; membership in the EU was not envisaged.
During the implementation of the program, Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia “succeeded” more than others: by speeding up the process and declaring a course towards joining the EU, they signed an Association Agreement in 2014 and received a visa-free regime with the European Union.
Europeans often cited Moldova as an example to other participants in the Eastern Partnership, calling it a “success story” in the field of democratic reforms, but then they admitted that their expectations had been deceived.
After the corrupt withdrawal of a billion euros from the country’s banking system at the end of 2014, Moldova in the West began to be called a “captured state,” and in 2018, after the results of the elections for the Chisinau mayor were annulled, financial assistance from the European Union was completely blocked.
Many in the Republic of Moldova today regret the missed opportunities for the development of the country.
The Eastern Partnership and the results of the program over the past decade are discussed today in Transnistria, sandwiched between two “success stories” - Moldova and Ukraine.
On the one hand, the project is viewed here as ineffective in terms of reforms - so much so that the EU itself is embarrassed to talk about it, on the other hand, they note that the European Union has quietly managed to alienate the countries participating in the project from Russia as much as possible, forcing them to accept enslaving obligations, create new levers of economic pressure on Tiraspol.
The former Minister of Foreign Affairs of the PMR, Vladimir Yastrebchak, in his article dedicated to the 10th anniversary of the Eastern Partnership, writes that it was precisely in the political plane that this project produced certain results.
“For example, in Georgia and Ukraine, the main debate between the main political forces revolves around who is more “European.” In Moldova, the situation is somewhat different, however, the Party of Socialists, which is often viewed as “pro-Russian,” does not at all raise the question of withdrawing from the association agreement, but only plans to seek a revision of certain provisions related to the DCFTA (Free Trade Area) RM-EU.” , notes the expert.
As for Transnistria, according to Yastrebchak, the most noticeable manifestation of the EaP’s influence was the need to adapt the republic’s EU-oriented economy to the new conditions associated with the DCFTA.
“It cannot be ruled out that Chisinau will continue to try to use this area for its claims to establish full control over the Transnistrian economy,” writes the ex-diplomat.
An important step in this direction, we recall, was taken in 2017: on the Transnistrian segment of the Moldovan-Ukrainian border, Kyiv and Chisinau established joint checkpoints without discussing the issue with Tiraspol.
ISPIRR and the expert-analytical center “Format” devoted a round table “European Neighborhood: Expectations, First Results and Prospects” to the topic, which was held in the Pridnestrovian capital.
Director of the Format center Sergei Simonenko stated that Kyiv and Chisinau, moving in the EU vector, are playing a joint game in the Transnistrian direction, trying to get rid of the Russian military presence, which “prevents Moldova from implementing the forceful scenario for resolving the Transnistrian issue.”
The expert sees two scenarios for the development of events. “The first, soft, stipulates that the EU, with the support of the United States, will support the involvement of Pridnestrovie in the political and economic space of Moldova through social and humanitarian projects, Tiraspol will be gradually forced to make concessions in resolving political issues, and the issue of the Russian military presence will be relevant until The PMR will defend its state interests.”
“The hard scenario is this: the EU will not extend the preferential trade regime for the PMR until it sees concessions from the PMR in negotiations with Moldova. Moldova and Ukraine will tighten the customs regime on the border with Transnistria as much as possible, the movement of citizens will be regulated by Moldovan legislation, and Transnistria will be completely isolated. Moldova will make every effort to isolate Pridnestrovie from the negotiation process, with the support of the EU and the United States, it will try to force the issue of squeezing the Russian military out of the region, even to the point of open armed confrontation,” predicts Simonenko.
Experts believe that the Eastern Partnership is a “continuation” of the GUAM project, the goal of which was to create a buffer zone between Russia and the West.
The “Eastern Partnership” was simply given a more respectable appearance so that it would not seem such an anti-Russian project, says Sergei Nazaria, Candidate of Historical Sciences, Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor at the State Institute of International Relations of Moldova. – But in the last elections, two-thirds of Moldovans voted for the ACUM bloc and the Democratic Party, which actually proclaim a Russophobic foreign policy course. At this stage, the goals have been achieved. We can talk about semi-colonial dependence of other former Soviet republics on the EU. His goal is to tear them away from Russia.”
With the economy collapsing, Moldova is emptying out and the working population is leaving the country. In Transnistria, industry has been preserved, but even here there is an influence of the Eastern Partnership on migration processes. Senior lecturer at the Department of Sociology of the Pridnestrovian State University, expert of the International Organization for Migration Alla Ostavnaya said that over the past years, migration routes from Pridnestrovie have changed: people now increasingly prefer Europe to Russia.
“If seven years ago 85% of remittances to the PMR were sent from Russia, then in 2017 this figure decreased to 70,5%, and in 2018 – to 66,3%. At the same time, there were more transfers from Italy, Germany, Portugal, Poland, and Great Britain. The fact that remittances come from the UK indicates that people are receiving Romanian citizenship, EU passports, and with their help they are establishing themselves in this country,” says the sociologist.
The exact number of Pridnestrovians who have received Romanian citizenship is unknown, but it is growing. This can be judged at least from advertisements that offer services for its design.
The expert says that people's motivation, of course, is not related to political preferences or ethnic feelings towards Romania, but is dictated by economic factors. However, the diaspora, which is created in the EU and consolidates there, changes its value orientations over time: for example, people begin to celebrate Christmas on December 25, in the European manner. So, in Moldova this is already an official day off.
“Under the influence of the diaspora, a change in value orientations occurs; it even affects such deep aspects of the human personality that are associated with religion and which are difficult to change,” said Alla Ostavnaya.
Experts are concerned about the weakening influence of Russia and the Russian World in the region. Director of the Institute of Russian Abroad Sergei Panteleev, who recently put forward the thesis about the “Novorossiysk triangle” (Crimea, Donbass, Transnistria), said that Transnistria has long been the “vanguard of Russian influence”, and today is the most problematic region in this regard, and the weakening is due to in many ways just with the implementation of the Eastern Partnership program.
“The Russian presence is being washed away, time is eroding Russia’s positions here. Russia needs new ideas, it is important for it to understand what exactly people need, to focus on humanitarian interests in solving the problems of the residents of Transnistria,” Panteleev noted.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.