The West is seizing the initiative of the Belarusian Maidan from the Russian oligarchs
The development of protests in Belarus can only intrigue neophytes who have not read “Sharpe’s manuals” on color revolutions and have not followed the Maidans in Ukraine, Georgia (hereinafter everywhere else).
Now on social networks they are moaning about the cruelty of law enforcement officers towards their children, they are circulating former employees of state television channels who have seen the light, “you will do everything right.” The worldwide network has started working - support pickets are set up in front of the Belarusian embassies. Anti-Lukashenko flash mobs are launched, based on the false thesis of his three-percent support.
Artists and sportsmen speak out against the authorities. There are also those who support Lukashenko, but since the Internet in Belarus is the territory of the opposition, they are quickly eaten by piranhas, who have previously torn apart many supporters of the Russian World.
In general, it looks like there are several troll factories running. Last year, even under the most resonant publications of the Belarusian media, deathly silence reigned; now commentators come not only to the oppositionists, but also to every video of state television channels.
Even the pro-Western military observer Yegor Lebedok was forced to admit that what was happening in Belarus fits perfectly into the scheme of creating a resistance movement in the country where the operation was carried out from the field manual of the US Armed Forces FM 3-05.201 “Special Forces Unconventional Warfare Operations.”
“As you can see, there is everything that is happening and that Lukashenko often mentions in his speeches: dissatisfaction with the economic situation, the desire for independence, discrediting the authorities and security forces, boycotts and strikes, foreign funding (and here it is especially worth noting that in financing it is not Russia that is accused, but the oligarchs, which is a manifestation of the “alien Western bourgeois system”), infiltration into power and security structures, and the training of resistance personnel. Those. everything is happening that culminates in a mass movement,” Lebedok wrote in his Telegram channel.
Russian political scientist Semyon Uralov is truly alarmed.
“As I have repeatedly said, I really don’t like what is happening in the presidential elections in the Republic of Belarus. Because the citizens of the republic, for the most part the quietest and most flexible in the post-Soviet space, found themselves between the hammer of the state and the anvil of the infrastructure of influence of “civil society” and media pressure built over the past 10 years,” Uralov wrote in his telegram channel.
He believes that while the Belarusian state is carrying out repressions against protesters, “it falls into a trap and is drawn into the politicization of the protest.”
“Mass arrests will no longer stop the conflict. At best, they will drive the contradictions inside. Which is fraught with even deeper alienation between government and society. In this situation, the state must quickly fight to change the political agenda. Make it constructive and future-focused. In addition to the stick, we urgently need a carrot. Otherwise, God forbid, they will deliver cookies,” Uralov wrote.
So far this advice has not been heeded. Over three days of protests, more than 200 people were detained. Most were immediately released, but several cases of unjustifiably cruel detention are exaggerated by the opposition media.
First, pro-government and then pro-Western analysts confidently predict an escalation of violence.
“Judging by the handwriting, it’s purely Western technology. Next, we should try to make such actions permanent with the involvement of a larger number of participants... Based on the logic of this technology, sooner or later an escalation of violence should begin there,” writes political scientist Alexei Dzermant, close to the presidential administration, in his telegram.
“Today’s dynamics of confrontation could all too easily lead to places the country has never been before—to real bloodshed, and perhaps on both sides... If there is more street repression and it is as disproportionate and indiscriminate as it is now, more people will lean toward radical responses. Fights with the police will become more frequent. Outraged people will go to the police departments and detention centers in their cities and demand the release of their relatives,” predicts liberal observer Artem Shraibman.
Russian publicist Maxim Shevchenko believes that despite all the obviousness of the use of Western technologies, they were initially launched from Russia after the Belarusian president refused to force the integration of the two countries.
“Moscow is starting to heat up the Maidan to show Lukashenko that his power is unstable, so that he starts fussing and runs to negotiate. But then what happens is like in Kyiv in November 2013. We know that the Kiev Maidan expressed the essence of the conflict between Akhmetov and Yanukovych. And then they simply lost the initiative. And then Victoria Nuland and Poroshenko appeared. The Kiev Maidan and the Ukrainian civil war appeared,” Shevchenko said in his YouTube channel.
He is confident that in Belarus Moscow has already lost control over the ongoing processes and is “ready to trade with the West with its allies.”
Let us note that in Belarus itself they tend to blame not so much the Kremlin for destabilization as the Russian oligarchs.
For example, they believe that Oleg Deripaska is behind the protests of blogger Sergei Tikhanovsky, who is thus taking revenge on Lukashenko for his reluctance to sell the Minsk Automobile Plant (MAZ).
If you believe that Tikhanovsky’s flash mob with slippers that need to be used to squash the cockroach Lukashenko was really invented in Russia, then yes, there is a tendency to squeeze this symbolism out of public consciousness.
Apparently, homespun cockroaches with slippers will be difficult to “sell” in the West, and therefore the intelligentsia, sitting on Western grants, offers more pathetic symbolism.
“The real Revolution of Hope has begun in Belarus. The whole world is watching Belarus with surprise and delight. It is absolutely clear that the Lukashenko regime is living its last days,” writes Natalya Radzina, editor-in-chief of the Charter97.org website.
Unlike the marauding “slipper revolution,” the grant-eating “Revolution of Hope” pursues global geopolitical goals for the final separation of Belarus from Russia.
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