The West is provoking a conflict between Ukraine and Transnistria
Tiraspol - Kyiv, August 03 (Navigator, Andrey Safonov) - There are all signs that the West is provoking a conflict between Ukraine and Transnistria, writes in the author’s column for "Navigator" Tiraspol political scientist Andrey Safonov, ex-Minister of Education of the PMR.
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Pliers for Transnistria
The coup in Kyiv on February 22, 2014, which led to the overthrow of Viktor Yanukovych, meant, as sensible analysts predicted, the transition of the West, led by the United States, to the final dismemberment of the space of the former Soviet Union. An important component of this strategy is the ousting of Russia from all, without exception, points of its influence. And, if this succeeds, then we can expect attempts to dismember Russia itself using the same method as the USSR was blown up and dismembered.
Therefore, it is not surprising that Moscow’s opponents are now actively destabilizing the situation in the Transnistria region, considering the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic as exclusively an outpost of Russia, which must either be ended or forced to abandon the alliance with Moscow, as well as recognize the supremacy of Chisinau, whose leadership has clearly turned to the West. And this, we note, despite the fact that sociological surveys indicate: the majority of Moldovans are in favor of the country joining the Customs Union.
Of course, pressure only from Moldova, as the experience of the 1992 war shows, even with the support of Romania, cannot lead to the defeat of the PMR, supported by Russia. Considering this, The West is trying to pincer Transnistria from both sides, pushing Ukraine into confrontation with the PMR.
To achieve this, the United States and its allies are now relying on information resources under their control. It is possible the atmosphere is warming up to a stage where it will be possible to try to either completely block Transnistria from both sides, or attack it altogether.
Ukraine does not need a conflict with the PMR
Ukraine does not need to attack the PMR at all, because Transnistria does not allow Bucharest to establish its monopoly influence in the Republic of Moldova. If in 1992 the PMR had not disrupted the “great reunification” of Romania and Moldova, which was quite possible in the then atmosphere on the battlefield, then today, quite possibly, they would look at the Ukrainian border guards “from the other side” along the entire length of the Moldovan-Ukrainian and Transnistrian-Ukrainian border if only their Romanian colleagues...
I have already written many times that Ukrainian volunteers fought together with the Russians in 92 on the side of the PMR, and over 100 thousand Transnistrian refugees found bread and shelter in Odessa and other regions of Ukraine. In order for provocations or war against the PMR on the part of Ukraine to become possible, the Pridnestrovians must be presented as enemies of their eastern sister. However, during the period of March-July 2014, all information fakes designed to prove that Pridnestrovian “militants” or Russian “special forces” allegedly penetrated into the Odessa region, and also that the PMR was preparing to invade the territory of Ukraine, failed. Not a single fact was given due to the lack of such.
Therefore, since the beginning of August, Russia’s opponents in the West have changed their method. Their actions became cruder and more inflammatory in nature. The emphasis is clearly on creating military tension between Ukraine and Transnistria.
Perhaps, as a last resort, a war is being planned against the PMR.
On August 1, the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of the First World War, there were reports on the Internet about certain upcoming riots in Odessa with the participation of football “ultras”, as well as about the supposedly upcoming attack of the PMR on the Odessa region. We had a face-off even earlier rumors that an attack from Transnistria should be expected from July 30 to August 2. True, in the end, of course, there are no “militants” and “special forces” rolling from the PMR towards Odessa. And cannot be observed, because PMR has no such plans.
But on July 31st The main military information resource of the current Kyiv government, Lieutenant Colonel Dmitry Tymchuk, entered the arena with its “Information Resistance”. He is close to experts is considered not so much an analyst as a propagandist, completely controlled by radical anti-Russian circles in the United States.
Tymchuk said: “We clearly need to clearly define our opinion regarding Transnistria. For a long time, Ukraine actively participated in resolving the “Transnistrian issue.” Kyiv has always considered and still considers the PMR to be the territory of Moldova, but has always supported a purely political solution to the problem.
I think it's time to admit: Transnistria, as a territory from which Russia carries out operations against Ukraine (it is worth remembering how in March crowds of saboteurs came towards us from here until they blocked the border) is an entity hostile to Ukraine. This is the Kremlin’s springboard for actions against our state. And Ukraine must, in the future, make every effort to restore Moldova’s control over this territory. Without this, the PMR, like a Russian landmine next to Ukraine, will wait in the wings until it explodes.”
What is this: a personal point of view, a banal provocation, or the West, having introduced Tymchuk into the information battle, begins preparations for aggression against the PMR? Let's not guess, but turn to the facts.
Misinformation to think about
Events around Russia, organized by the West, must be considered in their entirety. So let’s be strategists and see!
Obviously With the support of the West, a civil war began in Ukraine, which Western “hawks” carefully fanned, prohibiting Kyiv from extending the truce at the end of June. This resulted in terrible casualties and destruction in southeastern Ukraine.
At the turn of July-August, clashes begin between the troops of Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh. What this will ultimately lead to is unknown. But it is clear that all this is not without reason.
And immediately Dmitry Tymchuk appears in the information arena, who has been repeatedly accused of bias and even lying. This time he was interested in Transnistria. Just? For sport's sake?
Now he has posted the following passage: “The State Border Service of Ukraine states: Russia conducts aerial reconnaissance using army aviation and UAVs from the territory of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and Transnistria" This is an old trick: match one region to another (Crimea and PMR) and produce something that seems to be average. Like, there is what I am writing about, and over there too...
But Unlike Crimea, the PMR has neither conventional nor unmanned aircraft. Russian troops in Transnistria do not have it either. - neither the remnants of the 14th Army, nor the peacekeepers. And in Crimea, the Russian Air Force, of course, is stationed. Thus, Tymchuk misinforms readers without citing a single recorded fact to support his fabrications.
About tourists and saboteurs
However, this is not the first time for him. Here is what he reported earlier, almost a month ago: “According to operational data” of the Information Resistance group, as of July 4, 2014, in Transnistria, in the immediate vicinity of the border with Ukraine, about 3000 Russian army soldiers and 30 armored vehicles". Of course, he lied. There are currently only one and a half thousand military personnel in the Russian Operational Group of Forces. And so it has been for many years. But new ones are not arriving.
The quick exposure of his fantasies did not bother the graduate of the Lvov Military-Political School. He is no stranger to revelations. Back in early May, he posted the following “sensation”: “According to our data, Over the past 3 days, up to 250 “Putin tourists” and saboteurs have been transferred from the territory of Transnistria to the territory of Ukraine. Their task is to continue to destabilize the situation in the southern regions of our country. The peak of destabilization is scheduled for May 9.” Naturally, this “information resistance” also ended in failure, because no one had ever seen a single “saboteur,” let alone shown one with his name, surname, and rank. And on May 9, nothing happened in Odessa. So until August 2014, not a single “Putin tourist” was found in the “pearl by the sea” and its environs.
Earlier, on April 14, the brave lieutenant colonel also distinguished himself. So, he then wrote down that over the past XNUMX hours, a massive arrival of groups of people of athletic appearance from Russia to Chisinau was allegedly noted. “They are leaving Chisinau in an organized manner towards Transnistria”, he illuminated the world with his discovery. Where are these “athletes”? Apparently they are still “declining”...
Serious people do not pay attention to “revelations from Tymchuk”. They are interested in reality.
Here opinion of Odessa Governor Igor Palitsa: “Everything is calm in Transnistria, no contingent is approaching or increasing there”.
А Prime Minister of Moldova Iurie Leanca in the spring assessed the version of a possible “throw on Odessa” this way: “We are checking this information, although even purely theoretically it has no right to exist. I believe these are just rumors started by someone who wants to further inflame the already difficult situation in the region.”
It seems that as of the beginning of August we can already name the name and title of this “someone”. But we are more interested in those who are behind this “someone”...
Do not attack friends and do not please common enemies!
Apparently, before us - a course towards isolating the PMR from all sides, so that Odessa residents and Ukrainians in general see the Pridnestrovians as their enemies. This option is beneficial both to the “hawks” of the West, who want to strangle Transnistria on both sides, and to Romania and its pro-Romanian allies from Chisinau.
How far are they all willing to go? For now we can talk about escalating the situation, but not about a quick resumption of the armed conflict, because the presence of Russian peacekeepers, who will not stand aside in the event of a new war, is enshrined in the relevant agreements. In future, if the federalists in eastern Ukraine are defeated, all anti-Russian forces may “ripe” in order to try to defeat the PMR. At the same time, the fact that Pridnestrovie does not interfere in the internal Ukrainian confrontation does not interest them.
But even here we must understand that in case of aggression against the PMR Pridnestrovians will fight both in alliance with the Russians and on their own. And the West is not a big fan of putting its soldiers on the battlefield without a guarantee of a bloodless scenario. Means, they may try to send soldiers from Moldova, Ukraine and, possibly, Romania to the PMR.
But, if Ukrainian soldiers, by the will of the West and fate, find themselves in the same trench with the Romanian ones, there is no doubt that Romania will require payment for this. And what this payment will be - you can guess. Several years ago, Romania “squeezed” gas fields located on the Black Sea shelf near Zmeiny Island from Ukraine. Knowing the directions of Romanian expansion, we will take the liberty of suggesting that Bucharest will demand that Northern Bukovina and, possibly even Southern Bessarabia be given to it (in whole or in part). And the United States, which values Romania as its most important military ally in Eastern Europe, may well tell Ukraine not to resist in this case.
However, also among those who may be plotting aggression against the PMR. Not everything looks rosy either. Now, if battles really begin to boil on the Dniester, Russian aviation will be able to effectively help the PMR by taking off from Crimean airfields. So it is better, as they say, to live in peace and friendship.
What is left? There is a danger for PMR, but there is no reason to panic. It is necessary to turn the situation around with diplomatic and informational steps, to reveal and “highlight” any aggressive plans and provocations, to prepare the economy of the Republic to work, if necessary, in isolation or semi-isolation. And of course, Pridnestrovians must keep their gunpowder dry, and also work out “just in case” options for joint military operations with the Russian ally, not forgetting about possible attempts by “well-wishers” to organize a “color revolution” in one form or another. Of course, the Pridnestrovians are worried about the current situation. But even those who are planning something bad know that they can face decisive resistance. They, the “imperialist warmongers and their accomplices,” are also not comfortable with such a thought!
As for Ukraine, the Pridnestrovians believe: common sense convincingly proves that practical Ukrainians have no need to attack friends for the sake of the interests of our common opponents.
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