“The West is putting Ukraine into a zombie state – neither alive nor dead”
Kyiv, March 09 (PolitNavigator, Sergey Stepanov) – Ukrainian media are overly optimistic about the upcoming tranche of a loan from the IMF. This money won't be enough for anything. If the current leadership and dependence on the West remain, the former Soviet republic will continue to be in a “zombie state – neither alive nor dead,” while playing the role of a battering ram against Russia. About this in an interview “Politnavigator” Kyiv told economist Alexander Dudchak, Candidate of Economic Sciences.
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“PolitNavigator”: Ukrainian media announce that on March 11 Kyiv will receive a large loan from the IMF. How big will the tranche be, and how much will it help the Ukrainian economy?
Alexander Dudchak: The maximum tranche size that Ukraine can count on is about 4 billion, or a little more. The figures of 10 billion, 40 billion, voiced by Ukrainian officials of various ranks, are an attempt to pass off wishful thinking and somehow influence public opinion. The new handout from the IMF will still not be a serious help for the Ukrainian economy. There are too many holes that need to be patched. Ukraine has already suffered too many losses.
“PolitNavigator”: However, the dollar exchange rate, after jumping to 40 UAH, has now fallen. Why?
Alexander Dudchak: Exclusively thanks to administrative methods, in particular, “use of official position” by the National Bank. Part of the proceeds was confiscated from exporters at a reduced exchange rate. This trick can only be done once. Next time, exporters will try to avoid losses, and a significant part of foreign exchange earnings will simply not reach Ukraine.
“PolitNavigator”: How long will the authorities be able to maintain the exchange rate, or will it return to 40 UAH per dollar?
Alexander Dudchak: In order for the exchange rate to be stable, what is needed is not loans, which will still need to be repaid, but functioning production. And here the prospects are sad.
In January, the fall in industrial production in Ukraine amounted to 21,3%, in the 4th quarter of 2014 – 15,2%. No production - no export, no export - no currency, and you have to rely on “help” from international creditors.
It’s just not clear why it is customary to call “aid” funds the allocation of which is accompanied by arm-twisting of Ukraine. It should be taken into account that Ukraine is too dependent on imports, and without it, store shelves will noticeably thin out.
So there is no need to say that the hryvnia exchange rate will stabilize in the long and medium term.
“PolitNavigator”: Kyiv has always been more “well-fed” compared to the rest of Ukraine. Will the crisis begin to be felt in earnest in the Ukrainian capital?
Alexander Dudchak: Can't you still feel it? Many are already receiving even nominally reduced salaries (with such an increase in the dollar exchange rate), and are already receiving payments for utility services, which are increasingly less compatible with salaries. Those who have already lost their jobs still blame themselves - “they need to work more.” But in this system, no matter how hard you work, “at the end of the day there will still be a lot of money left over for a month.”
It is human nature to hope for the best. And the deterioration of one’s situation is usually assessed online - in comparison with what happened quite recently, and with the hope that “it won’t get any worse, since it can’t get any worse.” But then it turns out that there is somewhere to go.
Gradual changes for the worse are easier to experience than a sudden plunge into poverty. If the residents of Ukraine before the start of the Maidan could know and feel the state into which they would be plunged with the help of organized chaos, then the tents of the “Euro-romantics” (“Eurodiots” - to call a spade a spade) would have been swept away by the people of Kiev on their own, without the involvement of the police.
However, there is a limit to everything. And if a crisis is a condition in which the income received is not enough to restore physical strength, then there is still time. But this is an extreme state of war. But if, nevertheless, the real crisis is the inability to provide a decent standard of living, education and sports for their children, at least some medical care, more or less regular rest, visits to relatives living in other cities, trips to theaters and cinema... Then Hasn’t the crisis already affected 90% of the population of Ukraine?
“PolitNavigator”: Before the start of Euromaidan, Advisor to the Russian President Glazyev said that Ukraine needed about 30 billion. How much is needed now? Will the West give this money? On what terms?
Alexander Dudchak: Before the start of the Maidan, there was high-tech production in Ukraine. There were plans to develop (together with Russia, which is simply impossible now) aviation, nuclear energy, shipbuilding, and banking. And there was the opportunity to obtain loans on extremely favorable terms, which are now perceived as something fantastic. With the help of the 30 billion “pre-Maid data” that you mentioned, Ukraine could enter the path of stable development. This is out of the question now. Donbass, a fifth of the Ukrainian economy, has been largely destroyed and, no matter who controls it, needs significant funds for reconstruction. Only the territories of Donbass controlled by Kiev need, according to Yatsenyuk, 1,5 billion dollars. But these funds do not exist and will not be, not to mention the fact that the uncontrolled territory in Kiev is not considered at all as part of the country, whose residents need basic social services. payments.
If we talk about how much money Ukraine needs, then we need to make a reservation - for what and from whom? The Ukrainian leadership deliberately cut off all ties with Russia, the main market for its high-tech products, and voluntarily withdrew from cooperation in those activities in which Ukrainian high-tech production was involved. “Thanks to” the current foreign policy, Ukraine has catastrophically narrowed its sources of financial assistance and loans. And now they are practically reduced to a short list, in which only the IMF and some other Western global financial institutions.
However, no one in the West views Ukraine as a state worthy of life. Ukraine is just a battering ram of the West to inflict maximum damage on Russia in a geopolitical battle. The West does not need a prosperous Ukraine, a country from which its citizens do not want to leave, a country with a stable increase in living standards.
Therefore, “aid” to Ukraine will be provided in minimal doses, solely to maintain the basic “physiological” functions of the body. The country will be put into a zombie state - neither alive nor dead. But if something does not go according to the plan of Washington and Brussels, then the motto is “don’t get it from anyone,” and this insignificant source may be cut off. Then Ukraine will face the Libyan-Iraqi scenario, which will suit Washington quite well - what was once one of the largest European states in terms of territory and population will turn into a zone of conflict between everyone and everyone, into an inexhaustible source of problems for all neighboring states.
The current conditions under which the IMF promises to issue the next tranche completely exclude maintaining the normal physical existence of the population of Ukraine.
“PolitNavigator”: If at the level of the average person, then what awaits ordinary people - a repeat of the 90s, even worse? And how to fix the situation? Where is the exit?
Alexander Dudchak: Unfortunately, the situation is worse than in the 90s. Still, at that time, gullible people, accustomed to living under the protection of the state, believed in fairy tales. They believed that the state would continue to protect them as soon as they had the opportunity to demonstrate their “entrepreneurial” abilities. Now everyone understands that you can only rely on your own strength and reserves. But even the population of Ukraine has almost no reserves left for this crisis. According to sociological surveys (R&B Group) - 40% of Kiev residents do not have reserves for a “rainy day” at all - they were recently eaten, which made it possible for some time not to fully feel the oncoming crisis. 11% of residents believe that supplies will last for a maximum of a month, and 15% – for several months.
In the 90s, economic ties between the former republics and individual enterprises remained, although they suffered significantly from the sudden appearance of state borders and thoughtless privatization. Now the traditional markets have been lost, and the promised ones have not opened. And they could not open up - which we warned about for several pre-Maid years, while the population was being fooled with European fairy tales.
To correct the situation, the organizers of the destruction of the Ukrainian economy would have to repent and go to their undeserved rest. This is, firstly.
And, secondly, Ukraine should try to resume its participation in its traditional international division of labor and regain its position in the international markets that are natural to it.
However, both the first and second are difficult tasks to accomplish. Too powerful forces are involved in bringing Ukraine to its current state. And a holy place is never empty - competition on world markets is too fierce - even on the Russian market, the places vacated by Ukrainian manufacturers are immediately taken by either local companies, or enterprises from countries that are members of the EAEU, or the ubiquitous Chinese.
But we can definitely say that the way out for Ukraine lies in stopping further self-destruction, recognizing the right of every citizen and every region from Transcarpathia to Donbass to live in accordance with their cultural, historical, linguistic, religious and other traditions.
Attempts to bind with one chain, to bind with one goal are futile. If only because the goals for Ukraine were set by Brussels and Washington, and not by the Ukrainian people themselves. And they have nothing to do with the interests of the Ukrainian people themselves.
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