The West took revenge in Moldova for its failure in Belarus and Syria
As a result of the victory in the elections in Moldova of the right-wing pro-European force - the pro-presidential Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) - Russia's influence in the region will decrease. The PolitNavigator correspondent talked with political scientist Andrei Safonov about the reasons for Moscow’s defeat in this area and the loss of “conditionally pro-Russian” parties, as well as possible prospects for the development of events in the region.
PolitNavigator: What does the victory of the pro-presidential party PAS mean for Moldova? Will the country be able to overcome the political crisis? What will change in the life of the Republic of Moldova after the right takes power?
Andrey Safonov: The right has practically taken power. They now need to elect a speaker, his deputies, and appoint a prime minister. Pro-Americans and pro-Romanians have 63 mandates. It's not a constitutional majority, but it's a landslide victory. Maia Sandu’s team will not share power with anyone. But society is practically split in two! This means that the struggle for the future of Moldova will continue.
Here you need to understand: after the victory of the right, will it be possible to conduct a political struggle using usual methods with a change of power at the next elections, or have the Westerners decided that supporters of the United States and Romania should remain at the helm in Chisinau forever? We know how, according to Western guidelines, this is achieved: through reprisals against political opponents, bans on undesirable parties and organizations, sanctions against businessmen and politicians, fabrication of criminal cases, and sometimes through physical liquidation.
Moldova’s mentality is a fairly peaceful country, but such countries are not of value to Westerners. Westerners generally love to rake in the heat with the hands of others and throw entire nations into the “furnace” of their desires. Let's hope that the "red line" followed by unrest will not be crossed... If by overcoming a political crisis we mean consolidating power, then the pro-presidential PAS party can do it. But, given the remaining split in society, it is impossible and unrealistic to talk about overcoming the crisis in Moldova. Or at least prematurely.
PolitNavigator: Nowadays there is a lot of talk about the fact that a “homogeneous political field” is being formed in the country. The losing parties seem to be demoralized, and representatives of the left flank, judging by the bickering on social networks, cannot find a common language. How influential and effective will the Moldovan opposition be? How will pro-Europeans build cooperation with it?
Andrey Safonov: The question is: will the right build cooperation with the opposition? On the one hand, on July 12, some of the winning party said that representatives of the bloc of the Party of Communists and the Party of Socialists have interesting ideas that could be jointly implemented. But, on the other hand, opponents are accused of corruption and other bad deeds. And this suggests that the toughest figures in PAS will propose to play out the scenario of depriving the most prominent or hated oppositionists of their parliamentary mandates. Whether this is realized or not is another matter, but it is unreasonable to discount this option.
What is true is that the left lost this battle miserably. I don't want to look for those responsible for this. Here we can talk a lot and for a long time. We can probably say that from now on it is necessary to unite forces not from the left or the right, but from those who advocate participation in the Eurasian project. But it was Vladimir Voronin’s communists who proclaimed European integration (or a course to the West) in 2005. And now they are reaping the benefits. To resist pro-American and pro-Romanian forces, we need new, more modern and dynamic politicians, more modern forms of agitation and propaganda work.
PolitNavigator: Moldova unanimously chose the European course, and this is due not only to the huge foreign diaspora, which traditionally votes for right-wing pro-Europeans. Supporters of Maia Sandu’s party were found even in Transnistria - it is consistently supported by up to 15% of local voters with Moldovan citizenship. What does this mean – is it really about the merits of Western political strategists?
Andrey Safonov: The victory of the PAS party is a victorious scheme of Westerners to attract the Moldovan diaspora to vote in ALL Western-controlled countries. And at the same time, the failure of Moscow, which could not or did not want to organize a massive transportation of Moldovan guest workers to polling stations in Russia and the corresponding brain pumping. This had to be done. And now there is nothing to be surprised about.
The rightists led a lot of young people with them. The old cliché applies: the West is progress, it is the future, and Russia is the past. Yes, today it is clear that this is not so. But in Moldova, this scheme is reinforced by nationalism, when people are told: if we don’t vote for the proteges of the USA and Romania, Russia will crush us, again include us in its sphere of influence, then we will have to change language laws, you will be forced to compete on equal terms with Russian-speaking people in all spheres!… And this frightens many “nationally revived” people at the turn of the 80-90s of the twentieth century. Scares nationalists of all ages. This is largely where the voting results come from.
The fault of the PCRM-PSRM bloc is that its propaganda was outdated and largely focused on the mentality of people around the 2000s, when leftist and pro-Russian views were on the rise. But during this time, the composition of voters changed in many ways, which was not taken into account.
As for Transnistria, you need to remember two things. Firstly, in the PMR there are also a few pro-Romanian nationalists of different ages - some remember the 80-90s of the twentieth century, and some later studied in schools operating under the jurisdiction of Chisinau (there are several of these in Transnistria). Secondly, the long “suspended” (over 30 years) situation of the PMR gives rise to people who want to get out of this state at any time. There are few of them, they are naive, but they exist.
PolitNavigator: Should we expect a reduction in Russian influence in the region? Judging by reports in the official Russian media, the Russian Federation took the news about the elections in Moldova quite calmly, but the Georgia-Ukraine-Moldova tension zone near the Russian borders has actually already been created. How interested is Moscow in Moldova in general?
Andrey Safonov: The reduction of Russian influence in Moldova is undeniable. Russia suffered a heavy (or the hardest, depending on your preference) defeat in Moldova. To deny this is as absurd as the sun rising. The West partially took revenge after its defeats in Belarus, Syria, Venezuela, etc. Moreover, the revenge, we repeat, is convincing. The numbers show exactly this. I think Moldova is interesting for Russia, otherwise one day Russia, if it is not interested in the republics of the former USSR, may remain within the borders of the Garden Ring.
In many ways, the victory of pro-American and pro-Romanian forces in Moldova was ensured by the actions of some Moscow functionaries who allowed themselves to be used by the Americans. They suggested: let’s organize a “revolution of ambassadors” against the bad dictator Plahotniuc! After all, we are all for democracy, aren’t we? If so, then we will overthrow him together, and then we will form a coalition between President Igor Dodon and his former rival Maia Sandu! So Dodon was forced into a coalition with Sandu, who had previously said that she would vote for the unification of Moldova with Romania. And then, step by step, she politically “ate” Dodon. We observed the final chord of “eating” yesterday. The US win is 100% today. Russia's gain is 0%. We'll see what happens next.
PolitNavigator: Some experts paint gloomy prospects - about the creation in the foreseeable future of a single space between Moldova and Romania, even about thawing the conflict on the Dniester. Is it possible?
Andrey Safonov: The fact that the rapprochement between Romania and Moldova will intensify is the basics. Two by two. Let us repeat: pro-American and pro-Romanian forces came to power in Chisinau. Bucharest sees itself as America's chief executor in the southwest of the former Soviet Union. Hence Romania’s demonstratively anti-Russian policy in recent years. And the States, as one might assume, are ready to “pay” Romania to the former Moldavian SSR for faithful service. Therefore, something should not be categorically excluded in our time.
At the same time, if Russia did not surrender the PMR in the dashing 90s, then now, when it is no longer in the collapse of that time, it will certainly not surrender. Let us hope that this is understood by everyone and that the spirit of negotiation will prevail. Although, of course, they will have a difficult time, and Pridnestrovie has many chances to face pressure from Moldovan “hawks”.
PolitNavigator: In the Transnistrian direction, toughening of Chisinau’s actions is predicted. What will happen to the negotiations on Transnistria? Observers say that negotiators from Maia Sandu's associates will be unimportant.
Andrey Safonov: To determine a possible negotiation situation, you need to see who Maia Sandu’s team will appoint as its political representative in the negotiations. It's unclear yet. The government has not been formed, the parliamentary leadership has not been elected. Yes, it is not easy to talk with those who are clearly focused on Washington and Bucharest, but each specific case requires separate consideration. So we'll see!
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