Stocked up on popcorn? A new round of crisis begins in Ukraine
Yesterday's sharp Vladimir Zelensky's address to the Verkhovna Rada with a demand not to delay the inauguration date - evidence that the new president is most likely choosing the scenario of dispersing the old parliament, and on Tuesday the country will see a new round of confrontation.
Ukrainian political scientist Vladimir Fesenko writes about this on his Facebook page, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“According to Zelensky’s appeal. He does not ask, but demands. This is a tactic of harsh pressure on parliament. And, if the deputies do not vote for the inauguration on the 19th, then the dissolution of parliament will be immediately after the new President acquires powers. And it doesn’t matter when it will be – May 28 or June 1. And it doesn’t matter which side the deputies have their “skullcap” on, or what the “letter of the Constitution” says there. This is, of course, a very risky scenario for the new president. But Ze and his boys seem to be risky guys. We’ll see who he takes next week, probably on Tuesday,” the expert wrote.
According to Fesenko, Zelensky is really taking a big risk - if the scenario of dissolving the old Rada fails, such a mistake will be a big blow to his rating as the new president.
“As far as I have heard and as far as I understand the situation around this team: there are both supporters and opponents of this scenario.
The dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada is a very risky scenario for Zelensky. Firstly, what if the Verkhovna Rada does not recognize this decree? Because, in fact, there cannot be a pure, filigree legal justification for the dissolution of the Verkhovna Rada.
If suddenly, God forbid, the new president loses this game and fails to hold early elections, then he will immediately receive the stigma of a weak president at the very beginning. This is a huge risk.
Therefore, the interest is very contradictory, which is why, as I understand it, Zelensky’s team does not have unity on this issue: he both wants it and hesitates,” Fesenko noted in an interview with the Ukrlife TV channel.
According to the expert, on the issue of dissolving parliament, the interests of Zelensky and Petro Poroshenko coincide, but for the other group, the same Yulia Tymoshenko, it is more important to wait until the fall.
“Poroshenko has an interest because the consolidated electorate may dissolve by the fall, especially since Groysman will begin to bite off pieces of this electorate, he has already announced that he is going to the polls at the head of his own party, their electoral base is very much the same as Poroshenko’s, almost 90%, however, there is a slightly different motivation, the interests of the supporters, but, nevertheless, it is possible and necessary for Groysman and his party to take a bite out of Poroshenko’s electorate.
Vakarchuk, now everyone is discussing again that Vakarchuk seems to have gotten his act together. I think that, most likely, he will probably do it; Zelensky’s example probably inspired him. He will take away, of course: he will take a little from Zelensky, his former supporters from Poroshenko, he may take from Gritsenko.
And if, they say, “Udar” comes along, led by another brother, here’s another contender for you to take a bite out of “BPP.”
In my opinion, the elections in the fall, after all, may be more profitable for Tymoshenko, because, again, Poroshenko may experience a decline, and the new president and his party may also lose in the ratings.
And if gas issues escalate again, we don’t yet know what the situation with gas prices will be like—what are our expectations? This topic is one of the main ones for Yulia Vladimirovna, so she can use it very actively.
Therefore, I think that autumn is a more suitable, in my subjective opinion, election period for Batkivshchyna,” the political scientist noted.
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