Reserves in Ukrainian gas storage facilities are on the brink, ensuring transit is under threat
Kyiv, January 26 (PolitNavigator, Vladimir Mikhailov) – By the end of the heating season, Ukraine risks being left with empty gas storage facilities, warns independent energy expert Valentin Zemlyansky.
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“Despite the victorious reports from Naftogaz regarding an increase in import volumes from the EU, the dynamics of reserves in underground storage facilities is not exactly threatening, but, let’s say, highly risky. We risk reaching the end of the heating season with conditionally empty storage facilities - gas reserves there will be at the level of 4-5 billion cubic meters. m.,” the expert warns.
Whether this will happen depends on several factors - for example, the temperature in Europe and Ukraine, the volume of gas that Russia can supply.
“The lower the volume of gas in underground storage, the lower the volume that can be lifted. Therefore, it is desirable that the gas that is in storage remains there, and that our needs are covered at least until March at the expense of the gas that comes from the reverse or from Russia. This is ideal.
The question is also what the weather will be like in March, when there may be cold and snowfalls. We are now somewhere on the brink,” says Valentin Zemlyansky.
Currently, approximately 9,5 billion cubic meters are stored in Ukrainian UGS facilities. m., and the critical level for transit is 7 billion cubic meters. m.
It is unclear what Ukraine will use to buy gas in the near future.
“Let’s not forget that the gas that was in storage, in addition to Naftogaz gas, also has owners inside Ukraine. The same companies of Firtash, Kolomoisky, independent producers, whose gas was voluntarily and compulsorily requisitioned for the heating season. And in order to fulfill all of its obligations that were postponed last year, gas will be needed, which will need to be purchased one way or another. This is necessary in order to part ways with those owners who stored this gas in underground gas storage facilities, and to fill the underground gas storage facility for the next heating season. This, no more or less, could amount to about 12-14 billion cubic meters. m. Even at an average price of 300-350 dollars, this is still a lot of money, it is already comparable to half of the gold and foreign exchange reserves. These are the funds that will need to be spent until October to ensure reserves in the underground gas storage facility. It is unclear under what conditions this will happen,” the expert says.
At the same time, no one knows under what conditions Ukraine receives gas via reverse.
“They talk a lot about the transparency of Naftogaz’s work; we have not seen a single contract that was signed by Western companies. Everyone knows the details of the contract with Gazprom, on what terms we receive gas from Statoil, except for the government’s assurances that they are very profitable, no one else knows any details of these contracts.”
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