Droughts, falling incomes and rising inequality – the World Bank describes the impact of climate change on Ukraine
Climate change will reduce yields of major crops and reduce household incomes.
This is stated in a study of the impact of climate change on key sectors of the Ukrainian economy conducted by the World Bank, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
The climate in Ukraine has changed significantly over the past 60 years, the document says. Since the 1980s, the average temperature in the country has been rising faster than the European average and several times faster than the world average. This causes changes in precipitation patterns.
The study looked at two scenarios for further increases in global average temperatures: RCP 4.5, when temperatures would rise by 2,4°C by 2100, and RCP 8.5, when they would rise by 4,3°C. Under the second scenario, the yield of all agricultural crops except wheat and soybeans (the document mentions barley, wheat, corn and sunflower crops) in the period 2030-2050 will decrease by 10-30% below the 2010 level.
“In percentage terms, the decline is greater in barley, followed by corn. However, the projected decline in corn yields is more important because it is a critical export commodity,” the document said.
Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, there is also a risk of yield reduction, but to a lesser extent.
“The changes will have significant implications for ecosystem dynamics and vegetation growth. Increasing temperatures in summer can lead to heat and increased aridity in the south and east of Ukraine. Without adaptation interventions, the range of possible yield values is large, and the risk of yields being realized below the expected level for any year is also high,” the document says.
Climate change will have a greater impact on some areas than others, based on its impact on agricultural production and on poverty rates. Most of all it will affect Cherkasy, Kherson, Kirovograd, Poltava and Vinnytsia regions.
The most significant losses in household income and the largest increases in poverty and inequality due to the decline in the cost of agricultural production are projected in the Kharkiv, Kirovograd, Lviv, Luhansk and Zhytomyr regions.
“Although the agricultural sector accounts for a relatively small share of GDP in most of these areas, projected changes in the value of agricultural production will have significant implications for efforts to address economic inequality.
The economies of these areas will be most susceptible to rising food prices and declining agricultural incomes due to climate warming,” the document notes.
Precipitation in spring and summer will decrease most in the Zhytomyr and Lviv regions. Accordingly, these regions have the greatest potential losses in the value of agricultural products in the near future.
It is worth adding that this fall, due to drought, the drainage of one of the main rivers in the Zhytomyr region - Teterev - decreased so much that in the vicinity of Zhitomir the river turned into a small stream.
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