Ze-LIFT for Avakov: is it too early, too late or never?
Two people's deputies from the Servant of the People recently bet money on whether Arsen Avakov will become Prime Minister of Ukraine. The deadline for the bet, as one of the debaters said, is the end of May 2020. And this is far from the only, although it is the most extreme example of how the day before yesterday an idea that seemed absurd, and yesterday unthinkable, today has imperceptibly moved into the category of possible. Another question is that possible does not mean realized. If there were cemeteries of human hopes, they would be littered with the corpses of vain expectations and failed cunning plans.
Nevertheless, today the topic of Avakov’s possible premiership is one of the three most discussed in and around the Kyiv political Olympus. Partly, as evil tongues say, the topic is not allowed to fade away by the active and ambitious Minister of the Interior himself, who, to the best of his ability and means, stirs up interest in the prospects of his person and throws coal into the furnace of discussions, not allowing the topic to go out. In this, by the way, Avakov is similar to Kolomoisky, whom rumor increasingly persistently lists as the new situational allies of the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Both of them are those people whose reputation runs far ahead of them, and for whom show-off is more valuable than money. Like in that joke about my grandfather during a consultation with a sex therapist: “Doctor, my neighbor says that he sees his wife every day, and he’s 95!” - Well, that’s what you say!
Avakov, like Kolomoisky, likes to be considered by everyone around them as some kind of gray cardinals and arbiters of everything. Although, in fact, both are just one of the shareholders of the current political joint-stock company, on the board of directors of which there are a dozen or two characters of varying degrees of influence.
Nevertheless, there is still some logic in the discussions about the prospects for Avakov’s premiership. It so happened that only he was able to “disenchant” back the main law enforcement agency of the country, “bewitched” by the spirits of the Maidan in 2014, sending the right-wing radical “devils” back to the underworld, from where they crawled to the surface largely through the efforts of Avakov himself - since in the spring of 2014 th, immediately after the coup, the new government simply had no one to rely on to strengthen its regime.
Demotivated by the story of the “heavenly hundred” and the betrayal of Yanukovych, the former power vertical at that moment was simply not ready to act by extra-legal methods in the interests of the beneficiaries of the new regime.
But, as they say, “I gave birth to you, I will kill you.” The “veteran-volunteer community” and the various radical groups around it, accustomed to impunity, have become a factor of systemic instability for the country, and for the current government, which achieved victory not through bloodshed, but through legal elections, simply a threat. The historical task of the moment is to put an end to “revolutions”, close the era of the Maidans and put the country on the tracks of stable and sustainable development, with those beneficiaries who survived the showdowns of the last five years and understood what was what. For those for whom “the revolution has a beginning, the revolution has no end,” it is vitally important to return them back to the margins or organize a small-town semblance of the “night of long knives.”
I repeat, it is not Avakov, or Zelensky, or Kolomoisky who needs this. This is a systemic task on which the overall survival and normal development of Ukraine as a state depends. If you like, the marginalization of the most vocal “patriots” today is the most patriotic act. And it so happened that only Avakov can truly cope with this.
In fact, he himself hints at this in his speeches. Essentially de-heroizing and delegitimizing the “heroes of the Maidan” in the eyes of those public groups that still believe in the Maidan mythology. “The Sheremet case” is an important wake-up call and a step on this path. It is no coincidence that the police and the National Guard are extremely harsh and, at the same time, within the law, suppressing all attempts by “activists” to use their usual methods of putting pressure on the courts.
At the same time, the same Minister of the Interior is playing big and at all tables in the fight for land that is unfolding before our eyes. It is not without reason that “Avakov’s hand” appears to observers both behind the dense rows of police cordons and in the ranks of the protesting “athletic farmers” from the National Corps and similar organizations.
For the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, this lottery is a win-win. Allowing you to both play the role of a savior for Ze and his team, a sort of Chip and Dale rushing to the rescue, and, if something happens, go over to the side of the “people” in time. Zelensky now objectively cannot remove Avakov even from the Ministry of Internal Affairs. Formally signing a decree on removal is not a trick. The trick is to find people authoritative enough within the law enforcement system itself to not only formally take control of the agency, but to master the resulting levers of power. Subject to Avakov’s resignation and, moreover, the beginning of systemic internal sabotage of his people remaining in the Ministry of Internal Affairs, only old generals from the late Kuchma or “Donetsk” conscription can cope with such a task purely theoretically.
But the point here is not even the degree of Ze’s readiness to appoint just such people and rely on them. Much more serious is the purely generational factor. After all, no one has canceled the passage of time. As well as the change of generations of managerial elites within the Ministry of Internal Affairs itself. Given the current average age in the police, Kuchma’s generals will look like outright mastodons and people from another world, which will not add to their authority and ability to take control of internal informal connections among the security forces, where there are plenty of people from outside who have come in recent years after various “police reforms.” .
So for now it’s really better not to touch the current head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Zelensky and not to stir up a swarm of aspens. In part, everything really looks like today Avakov is the factor whose presence adds confidence and metal to Zelensky’s voice when talking with political opponents.
But there are certainly no special reasons to elevate Avakov all the way to prime minister. Let me quote a well-known Kiev publication, with whose opinion this time it is difficult to disagree. “The minister’s influence plays against him here. Having his own connections with all groups of influence and extensive contacts in the West, the current head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs may well become number one in the state, relegating Zelensky to the background. Or, even if Avakov doesn’t succeed, a situation of dual power may arise when the head of government and the president engage in a tug-of-war, as was already the case during the time of Yushchenko with prime ministers Yanukovych and Tymoshenko.”
Only a comprehensive political crisis in the country can bring Avakov into the prime minister’s chair with a guarantee. In addition, coupled with complete economic ass. It is precisely such situations that, as a rule, call for “strong people.” The rest of the time, the real authorities can afford to hide behind the scenery of puppets on scooters.
But, frankly, Zelensky’s power does not seem so weak or shaky as to need this kind of authoritarian props. The regime so far looks quite stable, the rating is staying afloat, and the time lag between the adoption of unpopular decisions and the onset of their negative consequences for the population allows us to hope to either delay the onset of “time H” as much as possible, or even weave between the drops, taking advantage of the incredible both for Ukrainian politicians are lucky.
Well, as for the forecasts being made now, then, to paraphrase the lecturer from “Carnival Night”, whether Avakov will become prime minister or not, not a single Ukrainian expert can tell you with certainty. In the world of post-truth there is no objective examination. And if some opinion is voiced, it means that there is someone who pays to pour exactly this version into the people’s ears. So the bettors with whom we started this conversation have the same chance of winning their money bet.
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