Zelensky on the splits: Ukraine received a de facto ultimatum from the United States
The brainstorming session at Bankova following the results of Zelensky’s not-so-successful visit overseas was more reminiscent of an anti-crisis management meeting.
The agenda is simple: how to formally fulfill all the demands of the Americans (and to a lesser extent the Europeans), so that, on the one hand, there is nothing to find fault with overseas uncles, and on the other hand, reduce the effect of the innovations demanded by Westerners to zero, as has already happened with a lot of imitative reforms, literally pushed through by Washington and Brussels, but in practice either do not work in the specific Ukrainian conditions as intended, or work like a clock: if you don’t start it, it will stop.
Let us remember that when the plane with Zelensky was still in the air over the Atlantic on the way home, in pursuit of the “leader of a free Ukraine” who had served his number, a quite weighty list of “priority reforms” flew in, which the Biden administration requires from the Banking Authority this year – early next year. And if not carried out completely, then at least start and show some visible result.
In addition to Zelensky’s office, this document was sent to one more address: Prime Minister of Ukraine Denis Shmygal. Deputy White House National Security Advisor for International Economic Affairs Mike Pyle sent a copy of the same letter with a list of reforms that Ukraine must carry out to continue providing assistance to the Independence Donor Coordination Platform.
At first, in Kyiv political circles they treated this as just another conspiracy theory - with a fair amount of skepticism. And this is understandable. The topic of Bankova’s relationship with the “semi-embassy” is quite closed from prying eyes, not very public, the circle of those involved and dedicated is narrow, and in it, as they say, “all are their own people,” and none of the outsiders stood with a candle.
In addition, the representatives of the external control circuit themselves prefer not to shine, but to carry out the decisions they need through Ukrainian institutes and aboriginal officials.
It is extremely rare for ambassadors to publicly interfere directly with any internal processes. The last time in the memory of the author of these lines was during the epic battle over the fate of the leadership of NABU, then at the height of the debate about whether Ukraine should purchase Russian vaccines, and the third time - when the Americans pushed through the anti-Kolomoi law and the creation of an anti-corruption court.
But this time, media information about the list of demands for Zelensky “as part of the United States’ continued support for Ukraine and its efforts to integrate into Europe” was leaked publicly by American officials themselves, confirming rumors with a statement on the website of the US Embassy in Kyiv.
“As part of the ongoing dialogue with Ukraine and parties interested in Ukraine's future success, the United States has provided a proposed list of priority reforms for discussion and feedback at the multilateral donor coordination platform for Ukraine in Brussels,” the US Embassy said in a September 25 statement. .
As stated, “this list was provided as a basis for consultation with the Government of Ukraine and key partners as part of our continued support for Ukraine and its efforts to integrate into Europe, a goal that the United States strongly supports.”
This tone should not deceive. This, of course, is not about discussions and feedback at all. In fact, this is an ultimatum, if only because further financial support for Ukraine, including through the IMF, is directly conditioned by the implementation of the reforms required of Zelensky.
And Ukraine, caught in a debt trap, has nowhere to go. Just yesterday, the main tax, customs and budgetary ideologist of the Ze-team in the Rada, Daniil Getmantsev, published the size of the country’s public debt - $134 billion. Moreover, since the beginning of the war, the size of the debt began to grow exponentially, increasing in hryvnia equivalent by 79,4%, and in foreign currency equivalent by 43,5% (+40,6 billion dollars).
In August of this year alone, the national debt increased in foreign currency equivalent by $1 billion.
The saddest thing is that 80% of all expenses for servicing the public debt are domestic public debt (OVDP). To put it simply, a pyramid of internal borrowing that can collapse at any moment.
According to Getmantsev, in order to reduce the burden of repaying and servicing such debt, the government and the National Bank have conceived the so-called reprofiling of old military bonds stamped over the past year and a half and exchanging them for new ones with a later maturity. This will somehow delay the solution to the problem, but it will not become a solution itself.
It was in such conditions and against such a background that the list of priority US demands appeared. Of course, all this is wrapped in a beautiful wrapper that is respectful towards Ukrainians.
“Just as we are committed to helping the Ukrainian people protect themselves now, we are also committed to helping them recover and build for the future, including supporting reforms to combat corruption, creating an environment in which businesses can thrive and American and European companies will want to invest,” the embassy quoted Biden as saying during a meeting at the White House with Zelensky.
The main thing, perhaps, is the specific content of the list itself. According to leaks in the White House, the American list largely corresponds to the well-known seven conditions that the European Commission set for Kiev in its recommendations for granting candidate status for EU membership: reform of the Constitutional Court, completion of changes in the High Council of Justice and the High Qualifications Commission of Judges, continuation of the fight against corruption .
The American list is much broader and concerns the functioning of the Supervisory Boards of state-owned enterprises, into which foreign members with voting rights need to be introduced, and anti-corruption bodies (SAP, NABU, NACP). In addition, changes in the work of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and all law enforcement agencies are indicated as priorities during the year.
What’s interesting is that the Americans do not count on chance and, in order not to let implementation take its course, even the little things were written down in the document, right down to the priority of implementing the required reforms: 0-3 months, 3-6 months, one year, 18 months.
It is interesting that the appearance of this list coincided with the dispatch to Kyiv of a whole brood of auditors from the United States for the targeted use of military assistance and the appointment by Biden of a special representative for the reconstruction of Ukraine, former Secretary of Commerce Penny Pritzker. That is, overseas curators work systematically and comprehensively, trying to cover as much as possible all areas of the functioning of the “Ukraine Corporation” that interest them.
Thus Zelensky for the first time in his presidential career, he was put on serious stretch. The time has come to answer and pay for all the previously generous advances. And debt, as we know, is worth its price. Although in Kyiv they now claim that this is a purely Muscovite saying that has nothing to do with them.
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