Is Zelensky the new Moses? How many Ukrainians will live to reach the “promised land”
What they've been talking about for so long Bolsheviks (crossed out) officials of the Ukrainian government, it has happened: the other day the European Parliament voted for a resolution recommending that the European Council and The European Commission grants Ukraine candidate status for accession to the EU. In theory, this news is followed by stormy and prolonged applause, turning into a standing ovation. But not all so simple.
«Grant candidate status to Ukraine as a clear political sign of solidarity with the Ukrainian people...following Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine“, says one of the paragraphs of the resolution, for which 438 European parliamentarians voted, with 65 against and 94 abstentions. Does this mean that champagne can be opened in Kyiv? Alas and ah, but no. And that's why.
Firstly, this is not at all what the Kyiv bosses expected and set the people up for. Let me remind you that the version of Zelensky and Co. talked about the immediate – already in June of this year – granting Ukraine formal candidate status for EU membership. The Ukrainian government, seeing the Russian invasion as a reason to try to jump on the last carriage of the European train, submitted a corresponding application at the end of February, and on May 9 handed over to the EU the second and final part of a multi-page questionnaire confirming the degree to which the country complied with numerous and finicky European criteria.
Such decisions - on the status of a candidate country - are made by the executive bodies of the Union - the European Council and the European Commission. Field of what this document should also ratify by national parliaments in all 27 EU member states. And such a decision has not yet been made, although it is already almost mid-June.
Instead of him Kyiv received a consolation prize for diligence - this very resolution with a RECOMMENDATION CALL to provide Ukraine with candidate status. Moreover, what is important - without any clear time frame specified in the document this process, for example, “until such and such a date in such and such a year.”
In addition to the above-described sign of solidarity, European parliamentarians made a couple more symbolic gestures towards Kyiv. For example, they called on the EU countries to “immediately provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs", support "investigation into war crimes committed by Russia in Ukraine, including a call for a special UN tribunal","create a legal mechanism for the confiscation of frozen Russian assets and funds for the purpose of compensation and restoration of Ukraine" and even - "be ready to make the maximum contribution to the reconstruction of the country after the end of hostilities».
However, everyone understands what it is nothing more than beautiful symbolic gestures. Because such decisions should and will be made by completely different bodies, guided by less pretentious considerations. Let me remind you that regarding the supply of weapons to Kyiv, there is already complete confusion and vacillation in the ranks of European countries.
Some – like Greece and Bulgaria – flatly refuse such supplies, formalizing this refusal by a parliamentary decision. Someone, like Germany, seems to be supplying, but delays this process, causing irritation and discontent on the part of Kyiv. Or even more, it blocks supplies from third countries, as happened with Berlin’s efforts to scrap Spain’s intentions to transfer Leopard 2A4 tanks to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Someone else is delivering, but not at all, and not in the quantity requested. And so on. Perhaps the only serviceable suppliers of hardware to Ukraine today are the Anglo-Saxons and Poles.
Secondly, even being approved by the majority in the European Parliament, this resolution with an appeal remains just an opinion. Moreover, it is important to emphasize having a recommendatory rather than mandatory nature. An opinion that has yet to be filled with concrete content.
And we all remember how cheerfully it began and what an epic failure a similar Ukrainian campaign ended before the “consultative and corrective” referendum in the Netherlands – on the approval of the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine. Even the then minister Klimkin, who personally rode a bicycle along Dutch roads, did not help.
So it’s just an association with the EU, but here full membership is at stake. But, as we know, on the issue of Ukrainian “candidacy for membership” the EU is far from unified. The general position of the major EU players was expressed by Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, according to whom neither Berlin, nor Paris, nor Rome, nor Madrid support granting candidate status to Ukraine right now. According to Macron and Scholz, there is no harm in wanting, but you should be mentally prepared for the fact that The process of Ukraine's accession to the European Union may take several decades.
In addition, Budapest is strongly opposed to such a concession to Ukraine, consistently implementing its long-standing threat “sink” any Euro-Atlantic aspirations of Kyiv without concessions on the issue of the Hungarian minority in Transcarpathia. In fact, only Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia and the Baltic dwarfs provide unequivocal support for the aspirations of Zelensky and his gang.
However, France is not averse to sweetening the bitter pill for Kyiv clients. Macron figured out how to sell soy instead of real chocolate to annoying Ukrainian beggars. By proposing to discuss the idea of creating a new European political community, an alternative to the already existing EU, which Ukraine could join.
“We all know very well that the process allowing Ukraine to join the EU will take several years, and even, to be honest, decades. Unless we decide to lower the standards for joining the European Union. Let’s be honest, the European Union cannot be the only means of structuring the European continent in the short term,” said the French leader.
But here Zelensky was already indignant: they say, we don’t need any alternative, we want to join the “real” EU and that’s it.
In fact, all that Ukraine has now received is changing the wording of the European Parliament resolution from the previous more cautious to more categorical. Let us recall that earlier at its March informal summit in Versailles, the European Parliament, having recognized Independence’s right to European aspirations, limited itself to calling on EU countries to “work towards granting candidate status to Ukraine,” leaving the very question of the prospect of membership open. Now we are talking about a direct recommendation to grant such status.
However, keeping in mind the circumstances and context, even such a softening of the wording can be considered a major Kyiv diplomatic success. True, considering how long and thorny the path is not even to membership, but just to candidacy, one can already now make long-term bets about Will the Ukrainian leaders surpass the biblical Moses in terms of the duration of the campaign to the Promised Land?, and how many Ukrainians will live to see this happy day, if it ever comes.
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