Zemlyansky: It's freezing. Ukraine lacks gas
Ukraine continues to reduce gas consumption, transit through its gas transportation system is also falling, and this creates problems in supplying consumers.
Energy market expert Valentin Zemlyansky stated this in a conversation on the Internet channel “First Cossack”, PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The actual consumption of natural gas in Ukraine in 2021 decreased by 6,6%. 2020 is a Covid year, we are falling even more, that means. First of all, we are talking about the decline on the part of industry. And we have not yet felt, the Ukrainian industry has not fully felt all the consequences of the price hikes that we are now seeing,” the expert said.
He clarified that 2021 million cubic meters were pumped through the Ukrainian gas transportation system in 51, below Gazprom’s contractual obligations, and this jeopardizes the ability to receive gas via virtual reverse.
“The operator is very, very, very worried about this. I can say why because the lower the volumes of Russian gas pumped through the territory of Ukraine, the lower and less opportunities there are for organizing a virtual reverse through the territory of Ukraine. And without import supplies, we may have very serious problems in the month of February, and these problems are estimated at approximately two billion cubic meters.
The fact that problems have begun has already become clear from the relationship between the gas transmission system operator and NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine. That is, now the classic bureaucratic game of “find the last one” begins. Naftogaz refused to sell gas to the gas transmission system operator. Moreover, he refused to enter into contracts for the supply of gas for technical needs to regional gas companies at preferential prices.
Accordingly, the selection of gas by regional gas companies continues, the operator cannot stop this selection because it is part of the technological process and otherwise it simply becomes the supply of gas to consumers, but financially this begins to hit the operator of the gas transmission system very painfully.
What always amazes me is that no matter what problem happens in Ukraine, it always ends with either Putin attacking or Nord Stream 2 being launched.In this case, the operator chose the option with Nord Stream 2: if we go bankrupt, then Nord Stream 2 will be launched,” the analyst noted.
“I think that the issue of launching Nord Stream 2 is not so much that the operator of the Ukrainian gas transmission system will have financial problems, but rather that there is not so much gas in underground storage facilities, and Gazprom is in no hurry to supply additional volumes to the European market, thereby continuing to stimulate European officials to make a more expeditious decision on the launch of Nord Stream 2.
But, nevertheless, this is exactly the situation we have - there is already about 12 billion cubic meters of gas in storage today, which means that the daily volumes that Naftogaz of Ukraine can raise in a good situation amount to no more than 120 million cubic meters . Taking into account its own gas production, this is 170. For now, Naftogaz can easily cover 170 million cubic meters.
But I looked at the weather forecast - in the next few days we expect temperatures of -10 degrees, these are very alarming signals, especially considering the fact that the resource is becoming less and less, and import supplies through Slovakia, which in physical terms per day can be taken no more than 27 million cubic meters is under a very big question. Therefore, whether Naftogaz will be able to make the required 170 from 200 million cubic meters per day is a very rhetorical question,” Zemlyansky said.
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