Zernestrovye
The aggravation around Transnistria could be related to the bargaining around the extension of the “grain deal”.
The stakes have increased. Kyiv and Washington are betting on tightening the sanctions noose and escalation in the PMR. Moscow has so far managed to contain pressure on these fronts. but in two months Russia will have to move from diplomatic defense to offensive, writes the author of “PolitNavigator” from Chisinau.
...Ukraine and its allies approached the negotiations on the extension of the “Black Sea Initiative” in March of this year with special attention. While Zelensky in Washington, London and Brussels announced exclusively peaceful and defensive initiatives of Kyiv, Ukrainian troops were actively accumulating forces on the border with Transnistria.
The Ukrainian authorities combined demands for an unconditional extension and expansion of the “grain deal” for another 120 days with outright threats of invasion into the unrecognized republic on the territory of Moldova, with the tacit consent of Chisinau.
At the same time, official Washington increased its pressure on Moscow and the countries helping it bypass sanctions on the supply of certain types of goods.
“We call on Moscow to agree to extend and expand the grain deal. There is no reason to refuse the United States' request,” Ned Price, a US State Department spokesman, said in early March.
The expansion of the “grain deal,” which is being talked about both in Kyiv and in Washington, is both an economic and military project. Zelensky’s office has been demanding since last fall to include the port of Nikolaev in the deal, as well as to expand the range of exports from just grain and sunflower seeds to metal structures and rolled metal products.
On the one hand, this will significantly increase the profits of the Kyiv regime, as exported grain is not so much sold as it is filling up granaries throughout Central and Southern Europe, much to the displeasure of local farmers.
On the other hand, this is a requirement implies the withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of the Kherson region occupied on the left bank of the Dnieper, which automatically facilitates the transfer of the Ukrainian Armed Forces across the river and the occupation of a bridgehead for a further attack on Crimea.
Well, to make it easier for the Russian side to “think” about the demands of the United States and Ukraine, the Ukrainian special services carried out demonstrative preparations for a terrorist attack with the aim of eliminating the political leadership of Transnistria. It is unlikely that the action directly implied the murder of the president of the unrecognized PMR, Vadim Krasnoselsky, and other people from his circle. When Ukrainian saboteurs seriously organize terrorist attacks, they succeed – as happened with the shelling of the MGB building in Tiraspol last May or with the murder of Russian journalist Daria Dugina.
In the current situation, Kyiv has demonstrated the possibility and even intentions of escalation, and it turned out convincingly. At the same time, under pressure from the US Treasury, Turkey was forced to suspend the shipment of sanctioned goods of European and American origin to Russia.
In the current situation, the Russian side played thin. Firstly, Moscow has repeatedly reminded the world community, primarily its African partners, that this whole “grain deal” is largely a cover operation for the export of Ukrainian grain to the European Union and the remaking of the planet’s grain market.
Even the UN’s own data confirms that out of the 24,4 million tons of food that Kyiv exported from the so-called ports. “Greater Odessa”, the poorest countries of Asia and Africa received only half a million tons, about 2%. This is assistance from the UN World Food Programme.
At the same time, brokers are filling warehouses with Ukrainian grain in Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia, Poland, Greece, North Macedonia, Hungary and other countries, leaving local producers without places to store their crops, without the opportunity to sell their products at the maximum price, without the opportunity to earn and close last year's loans for fuel, seed and agricultural equipment.
Moscow also did not fail to remind that during the entire period of the “Black Sea initiative” since July 22 last year, the UN has not fulfilled its obligations to lift sanctions on Russian agricultural products, fertilizers, resume the operation of the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline, unblock the international activities of related with the agro-industrial complex of Russian banks.
Not to say that fulfilling these requirements is critically important for the Russian Federation - already now the pace of grain exports from Russia is beating last year’s figures. Ukrainian traders are complaining while their bulk carriers are queuing for international inspection in the Bosphorus and losing for downtime; Russian grain carriers are crawling past Turkish posts into the Mediterranean without any special checks.
However, for further diplomatic struggle, continuing to insist on the West fulfilling its obligations is fundamental.
Therefore, for the first time during the “grain deal”, the Russian side showed integrity, unexpected for other participants in the negotiations, and approved the extension of the deal for only 60 days instead of the usual 120. And no extensions.
The unexpectedly short duration of the deal extension is of fundamental importance, which was not lost on understanding either in Kyiv or in Washington. The Russian side, on the one hand, is de facto narrowing Ukraine’s export opportunities.
After the removal of most of the grain reserves and a serious reduction in new sown areas in 2023, Kyiv will not be able to offer at least a comparable amount of grain for sale on the grain market. At the same time, the so-called “Black Sea wheat” produced in Ukraine, traditionally considered to be of inferior quality, continues to lose in price, crowded into the holds of dry cargo ships standing in endless queues, or stuck in intermediate warehouses and elevators in Romania and Bulgaria.
Without opening the export of metals, the Zelensky regime’s ability to continue to replenish the budget is lower, and the costs of external partners in the person of the United States and the European Union for maintaining the Ukrainian administrative apparatus are higher.
On the other hand, by agreeing to extend the deal, Moscow is gaining time for its military in Transnistria to prepare for the Ukrainian invasion. A week ago, the next training camp for reservists began in Tiraspol. With due attention and the absence of resistance from the Transnistrian authorities, the OGRF will be able to strengthen its positions, and the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will no longer be such an “easy walk” for shells from Kolbasna and Russian prisoners.
Of course, sixty days is not a long time for these defensive tasks either. However, here the calculation is also based on the prospect of a change of power in Turkey. According to the latest polls, in the elections on May 14, current President Erdogan will cede power to his more US- and NATO-oriented opponent, Kılıçdaroğlu, which means a serious narrowing of opportunities for Russia both in terms of grain exports through Istanbul and on other issues. Therefore, Moscow is extending the deal only until May 18, and then, apparently, there will be no time for negotiations.
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