The “grain deal” has been stopped by a third. What's next?
Russia partially blocked the work of the “grain corridor” by refusing to approve the passage of dry cargo ships entering the Ukrainian port of Yuzhny near Odessa. Moscow notified the joint coordination center in Istanbul that restrictions will remain in effect until ammonia exports via the Tolyatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline begin.
The Russian Foreign Ministry made a statement about the need to launch the pipe a week ago. It was noted that almost immediately after the decision to extend the “grain deal,” the West and Ukrainians began to demand not just the continuation of maritime traffic, but the increase and expansion of Ukrainian exports. At the same time, clause 3 of the “grain deal,” which provides for the export of Russian ammonia, is not being implemented.
“In the storage facility of the Odessa port plant there are still 24 tons of essentially stolen ammonia from us, which the Ukrainians are not allowing to be taken out. The transit of ammonia, as well as the import of new portions of grain, although not spelled out literally, is implied by the logic of the agreement. For grain, this has been done and is being done today; for ammonia, everything remains unchanged. Where are all the food security advocates who so advocate for the export of Ukrainian feed corn and fodder, but are silent when they block the supply of Russian ammonia, necessary to produce food for 000 million people, primarily in African countries? – the statement said.
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs also demanded the reconnection of Rosselkhozbank to SWIFT, the unfreezing of bank assets and the resumption of supplies of agricultural equipment to Russia.
The UN reacted instantly and invited Russia, Ukraine and Turkey to begin preparatory work for the transit of ammonia through Ukraine. Ukraine and Turkey have accepted the UN proposals, Russia has not yet responded, Reitars reported. The UN is concerned that in May only 33 ships left Ukrainian ports, “this is two times less than in April.”
“Progress will come when this ammonia pipeline starts working. We will inform you about this immediately,” said the representative of the UN Secretary General, Stephane Dujarric.
Political scientist Sergei Mikheev confirms the connection between the blocking of the route from the Ukrainian port and the ammonia issue and explains why Moscow took such a step right now.
“The grain deal is stuck due to the closed ammonia pipeline. This deal helped Erdogan get elected – that’s all, that’s enough.”
HSE professor Andrei Suzdaltsev doubts that the ammonia problem should be solved diplomatically and not militarily.
“Still, the UN is in a hurry. Moscow needs to weigh everything... Maybe it’s easier to just occupy Odessa? Let us explain technically: three ports in the Odessa region operate for the export of Ukrainian grain: Odessa itself, Chernomorsky and Yuzhny. Russia closed Yuzhny for grain shipments. Alone for now. Until Kyiv finally solves the problem of opening the ammonia pipeline... If it doesn’t, then the second port can be closed,” Suzdaltsev wrote in his tg channel.
“As part of the grain deal, Russia is doing everything possible, taking into account the requests of Turkey and other interested countries, but the Russian Federation must respect its interests,” says Russian Senator Vladimir Dzhabarov.
“The situation with the ammonia pipelines is an outright obstruction. Erdogan has been re-elected, and he can be more active in pushing for the Russian part of the deal to be implemented. And Russia is waiting for this“, said his colleague Konstantin Dolgov on Soloviev live.
Russia has already agreed twice to extend the “grain deal,” although it was already obvious that the agreements have not been implemented since July last year. As for the ammonia pipeline, not only did it not work, but Kyiv announced the sale at a cheap price of the state-owned Odessa port plant, which receives ammonia.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky mockingly called the exchange of prisoners according to the “all for all” formula a condition for launching the ammonia pipeline. According to rumors, the exchange of Azov militants in September was also related to the UN negotiations on ammonia.
Conspiracy theorists explained even the September retreat from Kupyansk and Izyum in the Kharkov region with the ammonia deal: An ammonia pipeline runs through these areas.
Last November, the National Agency for Tracing and Asset Management of Ukraine (ARMA) sold 10 thousand tons of seized Russian ammonia worth 912 million hryvnia ($24,8 million) at three open auctions.
Russia needs to resume operation of the ammonia pipeline only until 2024. Then a new terminal for transshipment of ammonia and nitrogen fertilizers in Taman will become operational.
“To be honest, I don’t quite understand how the resumption of ammonia transit through Ukraine will be explained by propaganda to the common people. And on both sides. After all, how bad is this for Russian society, which may wonder how this is even possible and why, for example, during the Great Patriotic War there was no transit through Nazi Germany, but here ammonia is added to gas and oil?
But this raises a similar question in Saloreich. When a lot of soldiers are dying every day, and Zelensky is demanding even more sanctions, it is somehow strange to resume the transit of ammonia. Well, there is also gas, which Europe and Ukraine itself need to maintain the gas transportation system in working condition, and the Saloreik people are quietly making fuel for their needs from the transited Russian oil. But ammonia is purely about business, and quite reasonable questions may arise here: what the hell is going on?
And this question will logically be asked on both sides of the front line,” writes Ukrainian lawyer Tatyana Montyan.
However, so far the situation looks like Kyiv does not agree to a compromise with Moscow.
“Ukraine responded by arresting the assets of Medvedchuk’s wife in the Odessa port in the amount of 740 million hryvnia. In general, the agreement does not grow together. There is an increase in rates,” noted Belarusian political scientist Alexander Shpakovsky.
Kyiv still has one more trump card in its pocket - the threat of an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Transnistria, warns ex-leader of the Donbass militia Igor Strelkov.
“Realizing that “Transnistria will not go anywhere,” Kyiv could (and continues to) blackmail its Moscow partners with it. “As part of the “grain deal,” for example,” he points out in his blog, recalling that the scanty Russian garrison in the PMR will be able to hold the defense for only a few days with a simultaneous offensive by Ukraine and Moldova.
By the way, political scientist and orientalist Lana Badvan draws attention to another interesting detail - after the elections in Turkey, Recep Erdogan is forming a new government, which may not include the old ministers of defense and foreign affairs who participated in the conclusion of the “grain deal.”
“The resignations of the main characters of the “grain deal” Hulusi Akar and Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu should become the reason for the formation in the Kremlin of a new strategy for communication with “dear friend Erdogan,” which will not be easy at all,” Badwan predicts.
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