“Iron Prisoner”: “The big war in Donbass will begin in February, there will be more victims than in 2014-15”

The postponement of Russia's peacekeeping operation in Ukraine plays into NATO's hands, allowing it to strengthen its presence in the former Soviet republic. Is the US planning to strike both Russia and China at the same time? In the event of a new escalation in the Donbass, it will be impossible to do without the participation of the Russian armed forces.

Igor Kimakovsky, a volunteer from St. Petersburg, who during a trip to the DPR was captured by Ukrainians and spent four and a half years in prison, after which he was released by exchange, told PolitNavigator about this and much more. Kimakovsky is known on the Internet thanks to the blog “Iron Prisoner,” where notes about his stay in Ukrainian dungeons were published.

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"PolitNavigator": How likely do you see the scenario of the resumption of the hot phase of the conflict in Donbass in the near future?

Igor Kimakovsky: I believe that the likelihood of such a conflict is now very high. And this is due to the fact that there is a very serious geopolitical division in the world, which is connected primarily with the Pacific region. Let me explain: America has now realized that it missed China, and is now trying in every possible way to look for allies and geopolitical opportunities to somehow neutralize this.

Naturally, Russia, as a nuclear power, is a very serious card in this scenario. By her own. And I’ll also explain this: neither China without Russia will defeat America, nor America without Russia will defeat China. The only advantage of the United States: it is located on a natural aircraft carrier - the North American mainland, and it will be much easier and safer for it to resolve issues with China. And China and I have more than 4 thousand kilometers of common border. And so the United States comes and starts bargaining with us, they say, let’s come together against China! And one of the key cards that she wants to make trumps in this scenario is Ukraine.

Well, what else can America interest Russia in? Almost nothing anymore. And, naturally, Washington is raising the stakes in Ukraine. Taking into account what has been done over the course of these eight years in this country - the formation of a new nationalist, fascist ideology, the formation of armed forces at a completely different qualitative level, the support of these armed forces with specialists, instructors, weapons, and lethal ones at that... This raises the stakes.

According to my information, this year they have already tested Javelins on the demarcation line, although initially, when weapons began to arrive under Trump, they said that they would be located deep in the rear and would not be used without the Americans.

Well, everything related to Nord Stream 2, when we can already do without Ukraine for gas transit. The German burghers are satisfied with everything, the average Belgian is satisfied, the majority of the inhabitants of other European countries are satisfied, but the politicians who are at the helm in Europe within the framework of a certain ideology called ultra-liberalism are not satisfied. And within the framework of which Russia is an enemy a priori.

I compare historical moments, draw analogies with the era when the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod gas pipeline was built. Then there was the Soviet Union, the Cold War, much harsher conditions. They in the West said directly: we are opposing the Soviet camp, which is our enemy. But at the same time, Western Europe supplied us with large-diameter and high-pressure pipes; they supplied almost all the compressor stations for the project. Then they were interested in this, shared their technologies with us, and then we built, roughly speaking, without investing our own money in it.

Now we are investing our money in Nord Stream and offering reasonable gas prices. The map of the world has changed. The Soviet Union, opposing NATO, has disappeared. The ideology and formation in Russia have changed. We have market capitalist relations, which is what they called for, but, nevertheless, Russia is again not given the opportunity to breathe freely. What does this mean? The United States and its partners, within the framework of their ultra-liberal ideology, do not need the fact that Russia in this situation is neither socialist nor capitalist. And they find all sorts of ways to prevent us from breathing. Therefore, the launch of Nord Stream is constantly postponed. It seems to me that in this case, the United States will do everything, including a conflict in Ukraine, to prevent us from becoming stronger.

That is, full-scale aggression against the Donbass republics is not far away?

Back in April, I knew from serious people from serious structures that they (regime in Kyiv - ed.) were planning an armed provocation. By and large, they do not need the capture of Donbass. Although they are ready to do this today. They do not intend to immediately capture large cities; they understand that there will be a lot of blood and great losses. Although we have already conducted several exercises in the Nikolaev region to capture complex urban areas. And we read in brackets that Donbass was meant. We worked out the interaction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the SBU and the National Guard. They used Bayraktars.

_{And then they found out that there was no need to capture large cities, they needed to be captured in pincers and advanced to the border (with Russia - ed.). This is one of the plans. There is a second, more realistic plan that they considered and which was worked out at Staromaryevka: the capture of a populated area. In April, the option of seizing several districts of Donetsk was even considered: shedding blood, holding there, showing pictures, and provoking Russia to carry out an operation to force Ukraine to peace.}

And now everything is moving towards this. All the recent rhetoric is aimed at this. Let's look at the recent meeting of the heads of the NATO foreign ministries (in Riga - ed.) ahead of the meeting between Biden and Putin. Statements of the same (Secretary General of the Alliance - ed.) Stoltenberg that Russia should not have any geopolitical interests at all.

You and I know that there is shooting on the demarcation line almost every day. And my friends write to me that they constantly hear war in Donetsk, in the regions of the Lugansk People's Republic. In the native Donetsk People's Republic, the hottest spot is Gorlovka. Its outskirts are being turned into ruins every day.

And also Dokuchaevsk...

Yes, Dokuchaevsk, which is located in the so-called “pincers”, for them - the Ukrainian Armed Forces, is one of the best operational areas for conducting an offensive operation.

Accordingly, a provocation may now occur. Zelensky, during his recent speech in the Rada, presented the hero to the head of a structure that is not subordinate to either the National Guard or the armed forces - the commander of the Right Sector unit (prohibited in Russia - ed.). In addition, the well-known Yarosh has now been appointed advisor to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine. As in their time on the Maidan, the actions of nationalist structures depend only on external influence, that is, on Western intelligence services. And an aggravation in Donbass may also arise due to external influence.

_{Let’s say they don’t want to make sure that the Ukrainian Armed Forces or, as I call them, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are dirty, and they will do everything through such structures as the “Right Sector”. That is, nationalist battalions, which at an unstructured level are subordinate to Western intelligence services. At any moment, a provocation can occur on their part, when people can die, and, by the way, about 100 thousand people live in the gray zone, many of whom are Russian citizens.}

How ready is the UFU to carry out such operations?

Such operations are already being prepared in full swing. They also prepared in April, when reporters from those publications that constantly stigmatize Russia went to the demarcation line. It's a win-win... This, as they say in the West, is a special operation with an initially positive result: either Russia will start a peacekeeping special operation, and then it can be portrayed as a bloody aggressor, or it won’t start, then it will be possible to say, look at this Russia, which does not protect its citizens.

_{What should we do? In any case, Moscow must act very harshly and clearly show the red line.}

Donbass, Ukraine is a zone of geopolitical interests of Russia. Because tens of millions of not Russian-speaking, but Russian people live in these territories. And Russian-speaking people of other nationalities. And here we must not limit ourselves to some statements by our Foreign Ministry; that side is taking tough steps, and we must take them in response. They now have 125 thousand personnel on the demarcation line, almost half of the regular troops of Ukraine are concentrated, and we, accordingly, must concentrate a serious group there that could simply roll out this entire structure. And, taking into account Lukashenko’s recent statements, not only along the Russian-Ukrainian border, but also along the Russian-Belarusian border too. We must clearly show what our Black Sea Fleet can do against their four boats and one longboat.

Well, we must not forget that there is also the US fleet, which now calls at the Black Sea ports. There are British special forces, which London openly transfers to Ukraine in case of “Russian aggression”; there are probably other foreign units there that do not advertise themselves – Americans, Germans, Poles, Balts. That is, in the event of war there will not be a confrontation between Russia and Ukraine, but, in fact, between Russia and NATO.

I wrote an article about this in the weekly Zvezda last year. Postponing the hot phase of the conflict in Ukraine leads to two very serious consequences: 1. more and more people in this country are charged with fascist ideology, more and more people in Ukraine begin to perceive Russia as an aggressor. Their ideologists rely on the uneducated part of the population and the youth. 2. NATO is forming its infrastructure on Ukrainian territory, despite the fact that Ukraine cannot become a member of the Alliance. And the further into the forest, the more firewood, that is, the more the operation to force Ukraine to peace is postponed, the more NATO infrastructure will be in this country.

It's no secret that in Ilyichevsk (now Primorsk, Odessa region - ed.) there is a naval base with electronic equipment, US. To the Yavorsky training ground (in the Lviv region - ed.) weapons from an entire US regiment were imported; the unit itself is based in the Baltic states and Poland. We know that we have already installed Javelins.

The next point is the construction of two naval bases under the auspices of Great Britain, the construction of a special training base for saboteurs in Ochakov, next to which a training ground is being built that can accommodate the largest NATO aircraft. And American divers are studying the coastline, all the harbors that exist from Odessa to Nikolaev. They will build a system of electronic support, electronic warfare, and ship protection, after which they will be able to introduce a military fleet there. And the longer the hot phase in Donbass is delayed, the greater our chances of subsequently colliding directly with NATO.

In April, Ukraine began to draw additional troops to the demarcation line, but then it was much smaller than now - there were 75 thousand plus weapons. Large NATO exercises were being prepared in Ukraine with the involvement of several tens of thousands of foreign military personnel. At this time, the UFU committed an armed provocation. And if Russia began a peacekeeping operation, then NATO troops would immediately become peacekeepers and quickly create some kind of demarcation line so that the Russian army would not go deep into Ukraine.

I also draw an analogy with 2008. How is the situation similar? Then the Summer Olympics began in Beijing, now the Winter Olympics are planned for February, also in Beijing. In 2008, it was not only Russia that was declared an aggressor, a blow was also struck against China, because it was planned to disrupt the Olympics. It was expected that many delegations from Western countries would withdraw their sports delegations from China amid hostilities. Despite the fact that Beijing has put a lot on the holding of this Olympics. And China is also betting a lot on this Winter Olympics.

That is, within the framework of the special operation of Western intelligence services that they are conducting in Ukraine, the result is a fork with three prongs: either Russia is the aggressor, or Russia does not protect its citizens, plus the bonus is the threat of disruption of the Olympics in Beijing. Because if a war starts, then what kind of Olympics can we talk about?

Against this background, there are fair concerns about what the Russian World will oppose to this? Discussions about whether the corps of the People's Militia of the LDPR are understaffed and armed with weapons that do not meet modern challenges have been going on for a long time. Again, Russia itself is unlikely to be able to resist all this force only with missile forces, aviation, special forces and PMCs. And if we have to involve the regular army, then coffins with conscripts will be drawn into the country, that in a state where there is no ideology, Sofia Rotaru, with all her corrupt views, sings with “blue lights”, banks and big business do not enter Crimea, but artistic bohemia and youth idols competing to see who will be the first to go on tour to Kiev can provoke serious internal discontent among the population. Again, ideologically motivated Russian volunteers – the first wave of militias, as far as I know, no one is seriously preparing for war.

I also had a certain pessimism about the readiness of the corps, and about the fact that volunteers would not come, and there was no ideology in the country. But I talked with knowledgeable people and they admitted that, yes, there are many shortcomings, they have a lot of misunderstanding about what is happening in today's Russia, but Russian volunteers have a clear understanding that Ukraine is part of the Russian World. And I myself did not expect that such a large number of people who expressed some kind of criticism, seeing what is happening in Ukraine today, were ready to get involved. And if the 200th come to us, then people should begin to be indignant, but it seems to me that natural rage will kick in here. And the desire to help.

_{We all must clearly understand that this issue cannot be resolved without the participation of the armed forces of the Russian Federation. If Ukraine decides to commit aggression, it will face a qualitatively different level of confrontation, as was the case in Georgia, when our military vehicle was started for five days, and then it was barely stopped after Saakashvili ate his tie - they simply pitied him , relatively speaking.}

If Ukraine’s offensive begins now, and Russia is forced to launch an operation to force it to peace, then this will be a completely different qualitative level of war, with the use of both an aviation group and missile weapons, with the help of which the destruction of certain structures, air defense systems is already being practiced , communication centers, locations of enemy troops, fortified areas. The entire arsenal that the Russian army has will be used to show the whole world that there is no need to pull a bear out of its den, especially in winter.

But a lot of blood will be shed, much more than in 2014-15. Russian blood. At both sides.

And how do you predict this peacekeeping operation will end? Will they reach the demarcation line again, or will they risk at least the borders of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions?

If we stop at the existing demarcation line, it will be a grave mistake. And even if we stop at the administrative borders of the Lugansk and Donetsk regions, the same. Kyiv is the mother of Russian cities. We just need to leave their original region, which is called Galicia, fenced off from us with barbed wire. And don’t destroy everyone who sympathizes with Nazi ideology, you just need to send them all there, behind the barbed wire. They, like spiders in a jar, will gnaw each other.

They don't have unity. This is a good situation for them now, when there is a common enemy - Russia. And there they will begin to compare reasons among themselves, who is more nationalistic, and they will find enemies for themselves. Let them stay there.

And if they want to go to Poland, let them go to Poland; if they want to go to the USA, let them go to the USA. By the way, once they start living in the USA, they will begin to throw mud at this country too. I already had this experience. In Soviet times, when dissidents with a nationalist bent came out.

Okay, your prediction: when?

I’ve been hearing lately among my expert friends: now it will again be the same as in April, and there will be no hot phase. They will be scared.

_{Little depends on Ukraine itself now. And the United States will not be satisfied with agreements on a number of positions with Russia, so I predict that Western intelligence services will provoke a hot phase. The likelihood of this, I repeat, in my opinion, is very high. This will happen in February next year, during the Olympics. Either immediately before the games, or in the first days of the competition in Beijing.}