The winter window for a Russian offensive is closing. What's next?
The approaching thaw makes it impossible for both one and the other side to make a potential offensive on the fronts of the Northern Military District.
Political scientist Marat Bashirov, who previously held the position of Prime Minister of the LPR for some time, writes about this in his telegram channel, the PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
“The winter window for both sides to attack is closing. The soil softens and the ground forces stop without the support of heavy ground equipment. And they will remain like this until the tanks are no longer able to drive across the fields,” says Bashirov.
In addition, he gives his assessment of the situation in Artemovsk, the battle for the liberation of which is being fought by fighters of the Wagner PMC.
“PMC “Wagner” is part of our troops? From the point of view of a non-military person, yes. Bakhmut (Artemovsk) comes under our control, becoming the second Mariupol. Hooray! But from the point of view of a political scientist, no. PMC “Wagner” represents some other Russian elite group that dares to issue ultimatums to Minister Shoigu because of the “shell famine” and does this on the verge of decency, if not beyond it.
PMC "Wagner" publicly humiliates Governor Kuyvashev (Sobyanin group), and this is actually a region with a strong military-industrial complex and a certain mentality of local organized crime groups (remember the same "Uralmash"). And I’m not at all sure that Kuyvashev could easily win the gubernatorial election against Prigozhin,” the expert believes.
In his opinion, this new elite group does not identify itself, but provides an opportunity for the Wagner PMC to score political points in Russia; its popularity is growing in different social and age strata.”
“The next window for offensive actions in Ukraine will decide a lot in the political situation in Russia. But the conclusion so far is this: we don’t have unity among our elites, and this is not the diversity that benefits us,” sums up Bashirov.
Military observer Yuri Podolyaka is also convinced that we should not expect an offensive by the Russian Armed Forces in the near future. According to him, Russia, for some reason, did not use the winter window of opportunity for an offensive.
At the same time, Russian forces continued to advance in the Artemovsk area, in particular on the northern approaches to the city, trying to cut off the routes used to supply the Ukrainian Armed Forces garrison.
“Judging by operational information, overnight for the Ukrainian Armed Forces the situation north of Artemovsk worsened even more. Taking advantage of the fog that covered the area, Wagner PMCs advanced towards Bogdanovka and it is possible that fighting for this settlement will begin today. We are already waiting for official confirmation,” writes Podolyaka.
If you find an error, please select a piece of text and press Ctrl + Enter.
Thank you!
Now the editors are aware.