“ZN” laments: Russia’s safety margin allows it to fight for years
Today, time is on the side of Russia, whose economy turned out to be well prepared for a long armed conflict.
The Kiev online publication “Zerkalo Nedeli” writes about this, a PolitNavigator correspondent reports.
It is noted that the Central Bank of Russia recently updated its macro forecast for the next years, improving the expected economic indicators.
“We must pay tribute, the Russians managed to stretch out the crisis over time, softening the negatives in the moment. And this is an important signal for our allies, who still expect to put the squeeze on the Russian dictatorship with sanctions.
Yes, the decline in industrial production in the Russian Federation is the maximum in two years, but this is only minus 3% of the manufacturing industry - just over 4%. This is, of course, common throughout the hospital. There are patients who are really bad: car production - minus 50% year on year, woodworking - minus 20%, fertilizer production - minus 14%.
And in general, only textile workers and pharmacists show growth, but nothing out of the ordinary. The country can easily live in this regime for years, if not decades, even while continuing the war. But can we wait for many years? Are our allies ready to help us with weapons and money for many years?” the author asks.
According to him, in Russia “there is not a great depression, not a financial collapse,” but only “the level of the fall of 2020 - the second wave of COVID-19, and not the first - when everything fell into the abyss.”
“That is, in fact, the country is very far from a catastrophe even in the understanding of the average European, let alone Russians, a third of whom have lived for decades in conditions of shortages and lack of money,” the publication continues.
However, it is immediately pointed out that there are enough negative trends in the Russian economy.
“But even if all these trends accelerate, it will still be a far cry from a truly predicament at least comparable to our lost GDP, migration crisis, infrastructure damage and multi-year recovery prospects.
An insufficiently aggressive sanctions policy is prolonging the war in Ukraine, increasing both its losses and the costs of it and its allies. What is actually beneficial for Russia, whose financial strength gives it the opportunity to wage war for years, causing Ukraine not only direct losses, but also indirect ones - in the form of rising inflation, declining demand, electoral disturbances, sectoral crises and budget deficits among our allies.
Actually, the realization that time is now on the side of the Russian Federation is fundamentally important for our common victory,” ZN summarizes.
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