The Academy of Sciences states the virtual death of the Ukrainian economy
Over the past quarter of a century, Ukraine has become a world leader in the decline of GDP, writes Sergei Korablin, Doctor of Economic Sciences, Deputy Director of the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, in an article on the pages of the Kiev weekly “Zerkalo Nedeli”.
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The author points out that over the years of independence, Ukraine's real GDP decreased by 35%.
“According to the World Bank, this is the worst result in the world over the past 24 years (!). Of the 166 countries that had and disclosed complete GDP statistics for 1991–2014, it decreased in only five cases. Ukraine in this martyrology was ahead of Moldova (-29%), Georgia (-15,4%), Zimbabwe (-2,3%) and the Central African Republic (-0,94%). The GDP of other countries increased. With minimal growth in Barbados (8,9%) and Tajikistan (10,6%) and maximum growth in China (GDP increased 10 times) and Equatorial Guinea (61 times).
Considering the domestic interest in Honduras, it can be noted that its GDP, unlike the Ukrainian one, has not fallen over the past 24 years, but has grown by 121%, exceeding 1,4 times the growth rate of world GDP (87,7%),” – Korablin notes.
At the same time, he calls the thesis that is now being actively imposed that all of Ukraine’s troubles are associated with the loss of part of its territories, war and the destruction of the largest industrial region erroneous.
“The fact is that these factors are not fully reflected in the statistics provided. Moreover, military impotence is the result of economic and financial weakness. But not the other way around. After all, even during the period 1991–2013, when last year’s events could not yet be imagined and in delirium, the indicated five world losers were still the same. The only difference was that Moldova was then “ahead” of Ukraine.
Domestic production “sank to the bottom” in the 90s. Due to its annual contraction in the first nine years of independence, Ukraine lost almost 60% of its GDP. This decline was twice (!) the depth of the decline of the American economy during the Great Depression. The domestic economy, in fact, never recovered from this shock. Neither quantitatively nor qualitatively. Therefore, today’s crisis, the beginning of which is usually associated with last year’s change of political power in Kyiv, is nothing more than another slide to the bottom of the economic hole into which the country fell almost a quarter of a century ago,” the scientist emphasizes.
According to him. hope flickered in 2000, when Ukraine’s GDP grew for the first time - by 5,9%, but subsequent years showed its extreme instability, since even “in prosperous years, Ukraine was in a fever, and the growth rate of its GDP jumped from 12,1 % (2004) to 2,7% (2005).”
“With the onset of the global recession, it again turned out to be the weakest in the world: in 2009, the Ukrainian economy topped the list of global losers, falling by 14,8%. Lithuania shared this dismal glory (-14,814%). Then the depth of the decline in Ukrainian GDP was seven times (!) greater than the world average (-2,1%). At the same time, one can only be surprised that a country with a workforce of 23,2 million people. (Ukraine, 2009) the global crisis tossed around with the same ease as tiny Lithuania (1,56 million).
Since the end of 2008, domestic GDP has contracted in 16 of 28 quarters. Against this background, the ongoing series of bankruptcies, currency fever and depreciation of the hryvnia do not look strange. After all, all these are strokes of the lagging growth model: after 1999, the domestic economy de facto grew, but the average rate of this growth is so low that every year Ukraine lags further and further behind its more dynamic partners and competitors.
Over 14 years, from 2000 to 2013, domestic GDP increased by 69,8%. This is the worst result among all the republics of the former Union. After Ukraine, the minimum GDP growth was shown by Estonia (75,7%), and the maximum by Tajikistan (GDP grew 2,9 times), Turkmenistan (3,1 times) and Azerbaijan (4,8 times). At the same time, Ukraine, according to the World Bank classification, lagged behind the group of developing economies - both with low incomes (106,8%) and middle incomes (125,4%).
With such dynamics, by the time domestic GDP reaches the level of 1990, Ukraine will be on the godforsaken side of the world economy, far behind its current neighbors, not being able to share their successes, their plans, or opportunities,” – predicts the deputy director of the Institute of Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
As PolitNavigator reported, Ukrainian economists admittedthat there is no longer a chance for the restoration of Ukraine.
See also: Ukraine has become the most backward and depressive territory of the former USSR.
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